Iowa State vs Houston Odds
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
+9.5 -115 | 127.5 -115o / -105u | +375 |
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
-9.5 -105 | 127.5 -115o / -105u | -500 |
In a battle between two of college basketball's best, Houston looks to avenge an early-season loss to Iowa State on Monday night back in the friendly confines of the Fertitta Center.
In the previous matchup, the Cyclones eked by Houston in a 57-53 win, holding the Cougars to 0.85 points per possession. In that game, Houston's backcourt of Jamal Shead and L.J. Cryer combined to shoot just 2-of-14 from 3.
As heavy favorites, can Houston break down the Iowa State defense and take sole possession of first place in the Big 12, or will the Cyclones sweep the season series in what has been a surprise season from T.J. Otzelberger's squad?
Here's Iowa State vs. Houston odds and a pick.
Iowa State Cyclones
Iowa State has turned heads this season, and in just three years at the helm, Otzelberger has created an elite program in Ames. Like its counterpart Monday, Iowa State touts a suffocating defense that similarly likes to blitz ball screens.
The Cyclones are No. 1 in turnover rate (26.1%) and third in adjusted defensive efficiency. Tamin Lipsey has evolved into one of the conference’s best defenders and averages three steals per game.
The physicality and aggression of Iowa State wards opponents away from the paint, where it allows just 30% of opponent shots at the rim. Iowa State has developed a similar identity as Houston, though its biggest issue has come from the perimeter.
The Cyclones allow nearly a quarter of all 3s to be open, per ShotQuality, and rank 352nd in 3PA/FGA (45.5). Some teams, like BYU, were able to beat the pressure and catch fire from the perimeter, establishing a lead Iowa State could not battle back from.
But like we saw in the first game between Iowa State and Houston, the Cougars were forced to attack from the perimeter. They shot just 7-of-26 from 3 and took two more shots from distance than inside.
On the other end of the floor, Lipsey has established himself as one of the Big 12’s elite ball handlers. He leads the Cyclones in assists (5.5 APG) and has formed a dynamic backcourt duo with Keshon Gilbert.
While Gilbert has struggled from distance, he has been elite at drawing fouls and attacking downhill. He leads the team in scoring (14.2 PPG) as a do-it-all playmaker. Gilbert and Lipsey combine for 9.7 rebounds and 9.6 assists per game.
In general, Iowa State is above average in nearly every offensive metric. It doesn't turn the ball over at a high rate, creates second-chance opportunities on a third of possessions and ranks inside the top 60 in FTA/FGA.
The Cyclones don’t blow opponents out of the water and rarely attack from distance. Just over 40% of their shots come at the rim and another 21% come out of the midrange. Lipsey and Gilbert have been instrumental in that success.
Houston Cougars
There are few certainties in college basketball, but elite defense from a Kelvin Sampson-led team is one of them.
The Cougars are the No. 1 defense in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency, ranking inside the top five in both turnover rate and 2-point defense. They don’t have a player above 6 feet, 8 inches, rather they are imposing physically and bring a defensive intensity and pressure like no other.
Much of that comes through ball-screen blitzes. Rather than dropping down and taking away the pass to the roller, Houston throws both players right at the ball handler. Quick, and often poor, decisions are made, creating turnovers. Or, it forces the ball out of the primary shot creator and into secondary players’ hands. As a result, Houston looks to beat you up and create slow-paced games.
The Cougars allow the least amount of points per game (55) for a reason and force turnovers on nearly a quarter of possessions. Houston allows just a third of all shots at the rim, as opponents attack from deep or in the midrange (23%). Rarely will you get an easy bucket against Houston.
Perhaps most interesting though is Houston’s offense. Shead is the primary ball handler and ranks 12th in the country in assist rate. He is elite at creating his own shot and is among the most well-rounded point guards in all of college basketball.
Cryer, meanwhile, has been a much-needed pickup in the transfer portal with 15.3 points per game this season, but has even seen his numbers drop off since coming over from Baylor.
The Cougars don’t have many shooters and rank 233rd in eFG%. But this is a team that does not force turnovers and clean up on the offensive glass. They create second-chance opportunities on nearly 40% of all possessions.
In the end, it all comes back to their hard-nosed identity. Houston will beat you up on the boards, create an extremely physical bout and bleed you dry.
Iowa State vs. Houston
Betting Pick & Prediction
Houston opened as 9-point favorites and has quickly jumped toward double digits. I'm expecting a dominant performance from the Cougars in a revenge opportunity at home, but I'm worried about laying this many points.
Rather than targeting Houston against the spread, I'm looking to fade the Iowa State offense. The Cyclones mustered up just 57 points against the Cougars last time, 18 of which came at the free-throw line.
Take the Cyclones Team Total Under on Monday. Their worst games offensively have come on the road, where they average 12.5 points less per game. At home, Iowa State shoots 39.6% from 3, but that number drops to just 28.6% on the road.
I also have my eyes on a couple of player props. Last time, it was Emanuel Sharp who shot 5-of-10 from deep against Iowa State while Shead (1-of-8) and Cryer (1-of-6) struggled.
Iowa State's pressure results in plenty of 3-point opportunities, and they immensely struggle defending catch-and-shoot 3s (334th, per ShotQuality). Cryer should be able to take advantage of those struggles at home, where he takes 26% of shots while on the floor in conference play. In his last three years against Iowa State — including his time at Baylor — he shot at least five 3s per game (including at least nine shots in each of the last three).
Take Cryer's over 13.5 points, a number he's cleared in five of the last eight. Over 2.5 3s for Cryer is also not a bad look.
