The Iowa State Cyclones take on the Houston Cougars in Houston, Texas. Tip-off is set for 2 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Houston is favored by 12.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -850. The total is set at 132.5 points.
Here are my Iowa State vs. Houston predictions and college basketball picks for February 22, 2025.
Iowa State vs. Houston Predictions, Pick
- Pick: Houston -12.5
My Iowa State vs Houston best bet is on the Cougars spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Iowa State vs. Houston Odds, Betting Line, Spread
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -105 | 129.5 -115o / -105u | +550 |
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -115 | 129.5 -115o / -105u | -900 |
- Iowa State vs. Houston spread: Houston -11.5
- Iowa State vs. Houston over/under: 129.5 Total Points
- Iowa State vs. Houston moneyline: Houston ML -900, Iowa State ML +550
Spread
I'm taking Houston on the spread.
Moneyline
I'm avoiding the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm avoiding the total.
Pick: Houston -12.5
Iowa State Cyclones vs. Houston Cougars Picks, Betting Analysis
Iowa State Basketball
After three straight conference losses, the Cyclones have bounced back by winning their last four heading into this matchup.
However, they'll need to have success outside of their comfort zone if they're going to take down the Cougars.
Houston's defense is among the best in the country when it comes to defending the paint. Over 37% of the Cyclones' offense has come from that area.
If Iowa State is going to have any offensive success in this matchup, it'll need to stretch the Cougars by draining shots from beyond the arc. Houston is willing to allow shots from the perimeter, as it ranks 325th in defensive 3-point rate and 66th in 3-point percentage allowed.
However, the issue is that Iowa State doesn't take or make that many 3-pointers. It's 117th in 3-point percentage and 273rd in offensive 3-point rate. Also, the Clones are missing two important pieces for this game — Curtis Jones (illness) and Keshon Gilbert (muscle strain).
If the Clones can't get it going from downtown, their offensive outlook in this matchup is rather bleak.
Houston Basketball
On the other end of the court, the Cougars' best offensive area appears covered as well. Houston has generated nearly 39% of its offense from the mid-range, but Iowa State has thrived defending the mid-range this season.
However, it may not impact the Cougars as much because they'll control the tempo and have more success in the paint in a half-court setting.
Houston is the bigger, more physical team, and it's been very efficient inside the paint, converting 68% of its attempts on the season.
This will be amplified by the Cougars' significant edge on the offensive glass. They're sixth in the country in offensive rebounding rate, while the Cyclones are 177th in defensive second-chance conversion rate.
Putting it simply, the more methodical the pace of this game, the more it swings in favor of Houston.
Iowa State vs. Houston Betting Analysis
Houston has passed nearly every Big 12 test thus far, and it's more than prepared to take down the Cyclones here.
Look for Houston to force Iowa State to be uncomfortable offensively and utilize its size on the offensive end.
That combination should result in multiple extended runs, allowing the Cougars to pull away and cover the spread.
