The Iowa State Cyclones take on the Kansas State Wildcats in Manhattan, KS. Tip-off is set for 1:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
Iowa State is favored by 6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -290. The total is set at 141 points.
Here are my Iowa State vs. Kansas State predictions and college basketball picks for March 8, 2025.
Iowa State vs Kansas State Prediction
My Pick: PASS | Lean Over 140.5
My Iowa State vs Kansas State best bet is on the over, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Iowa State vs Kansas State Odds, Lines
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 141 -110o / -110u | -290 |
| Kansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 141 -110o / -110u | +235 |
- Iowa State vs Kansas State spread: Iowa State -6.5
- Iowa State vs Kansas State over/under: 141 points
- Iowa State vs Kansas State moneyline: Iowa State -290, Kansas State +235
- Iowa State vs Kansas State best bet: PASS | Lean Over 140.5
My Iowa State vs Kansas State NCAAB Betting Preview
What's going on with Iowa State? Three losses in four games to Houston, Oklahoma State and BYU (in double overtime) has severely hurt the Cyclones’ chances of earning a top-three seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Saturday could be a good buy-low spot on the Cyclones. Then again, they have nothing to play for, given they’re locked into the fifth seed in the Big 12 Tournament.
Perhaps they’ll play for revenge? Kansas State beat Iowa State during the Wildcats’ February hot streak, downing the Cyclones by 19 in Ames.
Of course, the Wildcats are playing like a much different team now. They also shot 10-for-20 (50%) from 3 in that matchup, and Milan Momcilovic has since returned for Iowa State after missing that first head-to-head matchup.
I could see a much different result with some two-way regression.
Then again, this isn’t the worst matchup for the Wildcats. They’re a good spacing and secondary catch-and-shoot creation team, which is exactly how you beat Iowa State’s aggressive ball-screen blitzing defense.
Jerome Tang offenses are also always good in cutting sets — especially behind David N’Guessan — and that's a weak point of Iowa State’s elite defense (1.18 PPP allowed, 49th percentile, per Synergy).
In that first matchup, Kansas State generated 12 points on eight unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers (1.50 PPP) and five points on six cuts (.83 PPP). I think that game plan is somewhat replicable.
On the other end of the court, you must avoid turnovers and keep Iowa State out of transition while defending Tamin Lipsey’s ball-screen actions in the half-court.
Kansas State is a borderline-elite ball-screen coverage squad, and that played out in the first matchup, with Iowa State generating just 12 points on 22 ball-screen sets (.55 PPP, per Synergy).
However, the Wildcats aren’t a tremendous ball-handling team, so the Cyclones forced 18 turnovers and generated 22 points on 14 transition possessions.
To be entirely honest with you, I have no idea what will happen in this game.
I’m partial to believing we’ll see another high-scoring game. Kansas State can run its offense around Iowa State’s ball-screen blitz, while the Cyclones should live in transition and speed the game up — the first matchup was played at a decent 68-possession pace.
Then again, can we reasonably expect these two to shoot a combined 18-for-38 (47%) from deep again?
I suspect some regression is in store, which is why I can’t lay the over.
