Iowa State vs Oklahoma Odds, Pick
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 139.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 139.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
Big 12 play begins on Saturday as the Iowa State Cyclones travel to Norman to face the Oklahoma Sooners at Lloyd Noble Center.
Oklahoma hasn't made the NCAA tournament in Porter Moser’s first two seasons as head coach. However, Moser has the Sooners in a favorable spot following an impressive 12-1 start.
Iowa State is ranked 18th in the country (compared to 25th for OU), according to KenPom. The Cyclones bring in an 11-2 mark and are seeking a third straight NCAA tournament appearance under T.J. Otzelberger.
Iowa State Cyclones
The Big 12 bulked up in the offseason by bringing in four teams, including Houston and BYU. Both of those Cougar squads are currently in the top four in the KenPom rankings, followed by conference stalwarts Baylor and Kansas.
Iowa State ranks fifth in this loaded league heading into Saturday’s opener.
ISU fattened up on teams that won't be playing past mid-March, with nine of its 11 wins coming against teams ranked 200th or worse. The other two victories were against in-state rival Iowa in a 25-point blowout and VCU, a four-point triumph in Orlando over Thanksgiving.
The Clones' two losses came in the ESPN Events Invitational in back-to-back games against Virginia Tech and Texas A&M, which aren't shameful defeats. The Clones' strength of schedule ranks 346th in the country, with TCU being the only Big 12 team that played worse opponents overall.
Another telling stat of how weak the schedule was is that the Cyclones closed as 27-point favorites or more eight times.
ISU is actually an underdog on Saturday for the first time this season. The Cyclones ended last season posting a 1-5 ATS record in their final six games as a road underdog.
Tamin Lipsey has been ISU’s most consistent scorer at 15.5 points per game, and he's improved his 3-point shooting considerably from last season. The guard converted on 4-of-22 3-point attempts in 2022-23, but has skyrocketed to 21-of-49 from downtown, a nearly 43% clip.
The road team actually won both matchups last season, as Iowa State went into Norman early in conference play and defeated Oklahoma, 63-60, as 3.5-point underdogs. The Sooners returned the favor in Ames towards the end of league action with a 61-50 triumph as 7.5-point ‘dogs.
Oklahoma Sooners
The Sooners haven’t been to the Big Dance since 2021, but OU’s defense has been a big reason for its turnaround this season. Oklahoma ranks 15th in the country in Defensive Efficiency at KenPom, while limiting opponents to 28.4% shooting on 3-pointers, which ranks 18th nationally.
Earlier we discussed Iowa State’s weak non-conference schedule, but Oklahoma isn’t innocent of scheduling plenty of cupcakes at home. The Sooners have defeated five teams ranked 300th or worse, but they've also beaten the likes of Iowa, USC, Providence and Arkansas.
The only loss for Oklahoma came in Charlotte against North Carolina in late December. The Sooners never led in an 81-69 setback as three-point underdogs. They lost the turnover battle by giving the ball away 18 times compared to nine by UNC.
Big 12 play has been a struggle under Moser, who's 12-24 against league opponents since 2022. At home, the Sooners have split 18 home games against Big 12 foes, including three losses last season by three points or less.
Otega Oweh has made plenty of strides from last season, when he averaged less than five points per game. Oweh leads OU with 15.5 points per contest this season, while knocking down 13-of-18 attempts from 3-point range.
Only two Sooners are averaging double-figures in points, but the depth is there, with six players putting up at least eight points a game.
Iowa State vs. Oklahoma
Betting Pick & Prediction
The strength of schedule has been a question mark for both teams this season, but Iowa State is finally in the underdog role.
Oklahoma sits at 12-1, but it's still slotted below Iowa State in KenPom. The Sooners have several good wins this season, however, their Big 12 record is less than desirable under Moser.
The Cyclones can't afford to be in a lookahead spot with Houston on deck, especially as they try to turn around their recent road woes in the conference.
Pick: Iowa State +2.5 (Play to +1.5)
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