The Action Network has developed an elite betting algorithm that indicates one of the biggest college basketball edges on Thursday night is for Iowa vs. Michigan State.
The algorithm is on the spread and has a betting edge of roughly 4%.
Effectively, you'll be receiving a 4% discount relative to its market price.
Another way to think about it: you're accumulating 4% in expected value by making that pick. Over the long run, if you exclusively bet on things that provide positive expected value, you're guaranteed to make a profit. In the short term, of course, variance is a constraint.
Our proprietary tracking data says that — besides our algorithm — sharp and big moneyed bettors across the nation like this side of the spread as well.
And one of our premier college basketball handicappers is also on this side of the spread.
We don't recommend using this betting algorithm as an alternative to investing — variance is a much sturdier constraint in sports gambling compared to the financial markets — but similar principles apply in regard to gains over a long time horizon.
