The Kansas Jayhawks take on the Houston Cougars in Houston, Texas. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Houston is favored by 9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -455. The total is set at 132.5 points.
Here’s my Kansas vs. Houston predictions and college basketball picks for March 3, 2025.
Kansas vs Houston Prediction
My Pick: Houston -9 (Play to -11)
My Kansas vs Houston best bet is on the Cougars spread, with the best odds currently available at Caesars. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Kansas vs Houston Odds
| Kansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -115 | 132.5 -112o / -108u | +350 |
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -105 | 132.5 -112o / -108u | -455 |
- Kansas vs Houston spread: Houston -9.5
- Kansas vs Houston over/under: 132.5 points
- Kansas vs Houston moneyline: Houston -500, Kansas +370
- Kansas vs Houston best bet: Houston -9 (Play to -11)
Spread
I see value on Houston against the spread on Monday evening.
Moneyline
While I like the Cougars against the spread, I will not be placing a bet on the Houston moneyline.
Over/Under
I see no value on the total in this one.
My Pick: Houston -9 (Play to -11)
Kansas vs Houston College Basketball Betting Preview
The Kansas Jayhawks are in the midst of the worst season of the Bill Self era. The bar is pretty high, but the Jayhawks are 19-10 with a 10-8 record in Big 12 play.
I don't think Kansas will suddenly get better. In fact, I think the metrics have too much faith in a mediocre Jayhawks club. Even the metrics are starting to falter, as Kansas is now 21st in KenPom after sitting 10th two weeks ago.
So, why is Kansas such a mediocre team? Poor roster construction has turned scoring into a chore.
The Jayhawks are 98th in offensive efficiency since Feb. 1, per BartTorvik. They also sit 130th in effective field goal percentage, 323rd in free-throw rate, and 202nd in 3-point percentage (33%).
Hunter Dickinson is the only trustworthy scorer on Kansas's roster. He and Zeke Mayo are the only two players averaging double digits with Dickinson leading the team at 16.9 PPG.
Kelvin Sampson is elite at slowing down opposing teams' top options, and he should devise a strong game plan to slow Dickinson down. To contain Dickinson, the Cougars have a slew of physical bigs: J'Wan Roberts, Joseph Tugler, and Ja'Vier Francis.
Kansas has also been pretty horrific on the road. The Jayhawks lost four of their last five games in enemy territory by 7+ points, including a 34-point shellacking versus BYU and an 11-point loss to Baylor. Houston is a totally different animal, though. Going into the Fertitta Center might be tougher than the Phog these days.
As winners of eight straight, Houston will look to make it nine with a sweep over the Jayhawks. The Cougars' interior defense is elite, holding teams to 43% shooting from inside the arc. That forces teams to take tough 2s or eventually settle for late-clock 3s, a matchup nightmare for Kansas since it can't shoot.
The Cougars also excel at turning teams over, boasting a strong 21% defensive turnover rate. That plays in Houston's favor here, as Kansas gives the ball away 16% of the time.
Early on, I didn't have a lot of faith in Houston's offense since Milos Uzan looked lost in the first few months of the year. The junior guard from Vegas flipped the script in league play, scoring 19+ points in three of his last four games.
Houston now has three elite perimeter scoring options in Uzan, Emanuel Sharp, and leading-scorer LJ Cryer. Plus, if Houston has an off shooting night, it can fall back on its 36% offensive rebounding rate.
Kansas seems mentally drained. Everything that could have gone wrong has gone wrong, and it's too late in the season to fix persistent problems. I'd be surprised if Houston doesn't blow Kansas out. I would play Houston up to -10.5 here. I'm shocked the line didn't open at double digits.
