The Kansas Jayhawks take on the Kansas State Wildcats in Manhattan, Kansas. Tip-off is set for 2 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Kansas is favored by 4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -205. The total is set at 140.5 points.
Here are my Kansas vs. Kansas State predictions and college basketball picks for February 8, 2025.
Kansas vs Kansas State Prediction
My Pick: Over 140.5 (Play to 142)
My Kansas vs Kansas State best bet is on the over, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Kansas vs Kansas State Odds
| Kansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 140.5 -110 / -110 | -205 |
| Kansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 140.5 -110 / -110 | +170 |
- Kansas vs Kansas State spread: Kansas -4.5
- Kansas vs Kansas State over/under: 140.5 points
- Kansas vs Kansas State moneyline: Kansas -205, Kansas State +170
- Kansas vs Kansas State best bet: Over 140.5 (Play to 142)
Spread
I'm passing on the spread, but I lean toward the Wildcats.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I like the over in this massive intra-state battle.
My Pick: Over 140.5 (Play to 142)
Kansas vs Kansas State College Basketball Betting Preview
This should be among the most interesting games on the Saturday card — a rivalry game between a somewhat-lost Jayhawks squad and a trending-upward Wildcats squad at the Octagon of Doom.
Kansas State has won four straight. Sure, the Wildcats have shot 38-for-86 (44%) from 3 during the winning streak, but they’ve also covered eight of their past 10 games, including their road game against Kansas, losing by 10 as 15-point ‘dogs.
Kansas State battled in that game. The Wildcats lost the rebounding battle (35-25) but won the turnover battle (10-5), so they ended up +3 in shot volume.
That is quite an accomplishment for a slightly undersized, turnover-prone squad facing off against Hunter Dickinson and Dajuan Harris Jr. — although, KJ Adams Jr. missed that game with an injury.
The Wildcats shot 13-for-16 (81%) at the rim, scoring 22 points on 11 cuts (2.00 PPP, per Synergy) and 11 points on seven post-up sets (1.57 PPP, per Synergy).
Their ball-screen defense got torched on the other end (allowed 27 points on 25 sets), and they allowed 17 second-chance points — it’s tough to win when your opponent shoots 25-for-40 (63%) from 2-point range and 16-for-18 (89%) at the rim.
However, if the Cats shoot any better than 6-for-26 (23%) from 3 on the other end — including 1-for-14 (7%) from above the break — that game could’ve been much closer than the final 10-point margin.
Shooting will be super important again in the rematch.
Kansas is an elite transition-and-rim-denial defense, so the best way to beat it is over the top, as you can spread out the Dickinson-Adams lineup with spacing. The Jayhawks are among the nation’s worst defensive spacing teams, ranking 345th nationally in ShotQuality’s metric.
Although they have some issues, the Wildcats have a rock-solid spacing offense. By combining Brendan Hausen and Max Jones on the wings with Coleman Hawkins at the five, they rank in the top-40 nationally in ShotQuality’s spacing metric and lead the Big 12 in Open 3 Rate.
They generate a stupid high unguarded catch-and-shoot rate.
By spreading defenses out, the lanes open for back-door cuts from David N’guessan. Jerome Tang's offenses are always strong in the cutting departments.
I think Kansas’ defense is wildly overvalued. The Jayhawks allow tons of unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers (10 per game, second-most in the Big 12, per Synergy), but conference opponents have shot an unsustainable 27% from 3 — ShotQuality projects opponents should be shooting 35% from 3 based on the “quality” of attempts.
And I don’t believe in their cut-denial defense, which was roasted in the first matchup and can be roasted again, even if Adams is back in the lineup to roam the gaps.
Ultimately, the Jayhawks’ defense is overrated, vulnerable and subject to negative shooting variance. The Wildcats have the tools to put up a crooked number if they hit their 3s.
But I’m worried that Kansas State will see some serious game-to-game shooting regression after its recent hot streak. That’s a problem because the Wildcats' defense will likely be shredded again in ball screens, in the post and on the boards.
When it comes to the side, I lean heavily toward the Wildcats, as I don’t believe in the Jayhawks’ offensive structure (not enough spacing or shooting, even with Rylan Griffen and Zeke Mayo) and I think their defense is vastly overvalued.
It’s also worth mentioning that Kansas State is 7-2 ATS as a home pup since Jerome Tang took over, which includes two outright wins against Bill Self’s Jayhawks.
But the spot tax for the Wildcats seems to be pretty heavy.
Instead, I’d rather bet the over.
I’m hopeful that Kansas State can hit its 3s and continue cutting through the Jayhawks’ overrated defense.
Meanwhile, I don’t expect the Wildcats’ interior defense to hold up against Kansas’ overwhelming interior offense, especially with Adams back in the fold.
Five straight games between these two have flown over the closing total. EvanMiya’s model projects the total around 145, so I’m willing to bank on more of the same.
