The Kansas Jayhawks take on the TCU Horned Frogs in Fort Worth, TX. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Kansas is favored by 6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -290. The total is set at 136.5 points.
Here are my Kansas vs. TCU predictions and college basketball picks for January 22, 2025.
Kansas vs TCU Prediction
My Pick: Under 136.5 (Play to 134)
My Kansas vs TCU best bet is on the under, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Kansas vs TCU Odds
| Kansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -108 | 136.5 -110o / -110u | -290 |
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -112 | 136.5 -110o / -110u | +235 |
- Kansas vs TCU spread: Kansas -6.5
- Kansas vs TCU over/under: 136.5 points
- Kansas vs TCU moneyline: Kansas -290, TCU +235
- Kansas vs TCU best bet: Under 136.5 (Play to 134)
Spread
Kansas is clearly the superior team, but it's difficult to lay this many points on the road in Big 12 play.
Moneyline
Kansas should win, especially with TCU coming off such a massive win at Baylor. Including KU moneyline in a parlay probably makes sense.
Over/Under
Both defenses are better than both offenses, and both teams force foes into extremely long possessions. I'll back the under.
My Pick: Under 136.5 (Play to 134)
Kansas vs TCU College Basketball Betting Preview
Kansas Basketball
Strangely, it feels like Kansas is flying under the radar. Despite being essentially equal, both in predictive and resume metrics, to lauded teams like Alabama, Kentucky and Marquette, the Jayhawks are carrying a more negative stigma at this point in the season.
Perhaps it's because of Kansas’ distinct identity. The Jayhawks are an elite unit on the defensive end, suffocating foes into poor shots after painstakingly long possessions. But the offense is more of a work in progress. At 34th nationally, Kansas has the worst-ranked offense, per KenPom’s efficiency rankings, of any team in the top 15.
Kansas doesn't take 3s (324th nationally 3-point attempt rate) and never gets to the charity stripe (364th in free throw rate). So much of the offense flows through Hunter Dickinson’s lefty flip shots around the bucket. As a result, the Jayhawks don't feel overly explosive.
Or maybe it's due to some slight exhaustion with the core in Lawrence. Dickinson, Dajuan Harris Jr. and KJ Adams Jr. have all been in college since the COVID-addled 2020-21 season, and they all have been generally the same player for multiple seasons now.
Bill Self’s transfer additions were supposed to infuse more juice into the Jayhawk attack. Zeke Mayo has done that, giving Self a reliable veteran scorer on the perimeter.
However, AJ Storr has been a borderline disaster while landing on the fringes of the regular rotation, and Rylan Griffen has been extremely up and down outside of the Nate Oats system at Alabama.
David Coit has vanished from the lineup over the last week or so.
They have all ceded minutes to Shakeel Moore, an outstanding athlete who doubles down on the Jayhawks’ defensive strengths, rather than papering over their offensive concerns.
He and freshman pogo stick Flory Bidunga have only reinforced the already-clear identity present with this team: getting stops above all else.
TCU Basketball
TCU’s on-again, off-again season continued this Saturday with a shocking upset win at Baylor. That means the Horned Frogs have now alternated wins and losses for a full month, and since Nov. 15, they're 7-7 with no streak (winning or losing) longer than two games.
Naturally, for a team so consistently inconsistent, one might expect an obvious flip to a loss after a massive road victory. The Frogs are home underdogs by nearly a touchdown, after all.
However, perhaps notching their best win of the season has these Frogs ready to make actual noise down the stretch.
TCU has impressively remained resolute despite the loss of point guard Frankie Collins to injury in December. His absence helped usher in some changes to the rotation, most notably a shift to a bigger lineup with two true big men on the floor together.
Playing Ernest Udeh Jr. and David Punch alongside each other has been a boon overall, but especially for TCU’s defense. Per CBB Analytics, when they share the court, the Frogs surrender just 92.4 points per 100 possessions, an outstandingly miserly number. It's nearly eight points lower than TCU’s overall baseline (100.3 per 100).
That pairing has a natural cascading effect through TCU’s lineups. It allows Brendan Wenzel and Trazarien White to defend wings, which is much more natural given their lean frames. It definitely boosts TCU’s offensive rebounding numbers, an area that's long been a strength for Jamie Dixon-led squads.
Those second chances are critical for a team that lacks offensive dynamism. Through 17 games, Wenzel is the only Frog to connect on 25+ 3-pointers. Only two others (White, 24, and Noah Reynolds, 19) have even made 15.
The Frogs are one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the country (63.5%, 354th). Their best route to scoring efficiently is to get a lot of attempts hoisted up toward the rim.
Kansas vs. TCU Betting Analysis
Kansas’ identity has led to a staggering trend in its totals this season. Through 17 games, the Jayhawks have already had 15 unders, including a remarkable 14-game streak that just ended this past Saturday against Kansas State.
Clearly, the market has had a hard time keeping up with Kansas' slant towards one end of the floor.
Of course, Adams is an important part of the Jayhawks’ defensive versatility, and he missed last game with a shoulder injury. When Adams is on the court, Kansas' defense gives up 7.5 fewer points per 100 possessions, per CBB Analytics.
Even more jarring, though, is Moore’s impact. Also per CBB Analytics, the Kansas defense is 15.1 points stingier per 100 possessions with Moore on the floor. His rise in role – he's started the past five games, averaging 24.4 minutes per game – has unsurprisingly helped the Kansas defense climb even higher among the ranks of the elite.
Against a struggling offensive squad like TCU, that spells trouble. I’d be interested in a TCU team total under, but I'll go with the overall game under considering TCU’s own impressive defensive unit. The Punch/Udeh combo has clearly made life difficult for opposing offenses.
I would bet this total down to 134. Kansas' penchant to run offensively is a little scary, tempo-wise, but TCU forces extremely long possessions as well thanks to a well-schooled transition defense.
Expect a serious dearth of easy points in this Big 12 matchup.
