#4 Kansas St. vs. #13 UC Irvine NCAA Tournament Betting Odds
- Spread: Kansas St. -6
- Over/Under: 118.5
- Date: Friday, March 22
- Time: 2 p.m. ET
- Location: San Jose, Calif.
- TV: TBS
Kansas State's Statistical Profile
Kansas State began the year ranked No. 12 in the preseason AP Top 25. For a while the Wildcats were living up to their ranking, as they began the season an undefeated 6-0, but when Big 12 play started, they immediately stumbled.
K-State began conference play 0-2 with losses to Texas and Texas Tech, and at the time, finishing tied for first in the Big 12 looked like a pipedream. Five straight conference wins later – over West Virginia, Iowa State, Oklahoma, TCU and Texas Tech – and the Wildcats were right back in the mix.
They went on to knock off in-state rival Kansas in both meetings, and ultimately earned at least one win against every opponent in the Big 12 to finish 14-4, tied atop the conference standings with Texas Tech. Despite being the No. 1 seed in the Big 12 Tournament, though, they were bounced in the semis by Iowa State.
This is Kansas State’s third straight year in the NCAA Tournament, and ninth since 2008. Last year, the Wildcats made the Elite Eight as a 9-seed, only to lose to No. 11 Loyola-Chicago 78-62. — Danny Donahue
- Record: 25-8
- Adj. Efficiency Rank: 23
- Adj. Offensive Efficiency Rank: 102
- Adj. Defensive Efficiency Rank: 6
- Tempo Rank: 342
All advanced metrics via KenPom as of Friday, March 15
UC Irvine's Statistical Profile
Cal Irvine is headed to the NCAA Tournament for just the second time in school history. The Anteaters enter the Big Dance with an impresive 30-5 record (15-1 conference) after walloping in-state rival Cal State Fullerton 92-64 in the Big West title game. Irvine ranks in the top 100 in adjusted efficiency (81st ) but they're much more of a defensive team than offensive team.
The Anteaters are 152nd in offensive efficiency, averaging 72.9 PPG thanks mostly to juniors Max Hazzard (12.5 PPG) and Evan Leonard (11.1 PPG). But their stifling defense ranks 48th in defensive efficiency, only allowing 63.3 PPG (19th best in the nation). Upset-minded Irvine enters the tourney having won 16 straight. — Josh Appelbaum
- Record: 30-5
- Adj. Efficiency Rank: 81
- Adj. Offensive Efficiency Rank: 152
- Adj. Defensive Efficiency Rank: 48
- Tempo Rank: 293
All advanced metrics via KenPom as of Friday, March 15
Kansas State-UC Irvine Instant Bracket, Betting Picks
Assuming Dean Wade can't go — and it sounds like he won't be able to — this is a nightmare matchup for Kansas State. UC Irvine can stymie K-State with the best 2-point defense in the entire country. The Anteaters give up nothing at the rim, as has been the case in each of the past five seasons (their worst ranking in 2-point percentage over that span was 16th).
This Kansas State team just isn't a great 3-point shooting team, especially without Wade. In addition to shooting over 40% from deep, Wade also makes a huge impact due to the defensive attention he commands, as well as his passing ability.
While Irvine won't score at will against an excellent Kansas State defense that is ranked in the top five in the nation in Adjusted Efficiency, the Anteaters are still a dangrous team that matches up well with K-State. And don't forget that the Wildcats struggle from the line, ranking 318th nationally at 66.4% — and those numbers include Wade, their best free-throw shooter.
With Wade, Kansas State is a Final Four contender. Without him, the Wildcats could be one-and-done. This should be a rock fight between two teams that play slow and have excellent defenses, but don't be at all surprised if irvine advances. The Anteaters are one of the deepest and most experienced teams in the nation, and their elite 2-point defense will make all the difference.
Early ATS lean: Irvine
Early bracket pick: Irvine — Stuckey
Sean Koerner's Kansas State-UC Irvine Projections
Sean Koerner's proprietary projections also power our Bracket Simulator, which helps you find the most optimal bracket for your pool size.
- Spread: Kansas State -10
- Total: 119
- Proj Score: Kansas State 64.5 | UC Irvine 54.5
- Win Probability: Kansas State 84.3% | UC Irvine 15.7%
