Kansas State vs BYU Odds
| Kansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -115 | 146.5 -105o / -115u | +475 |
| BYU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -105 | 146.5 -105o / -115u | -650 |
Kansas State finally picked up a premier victory over arch-rival Kansas earlier this week. It now takes the lengthy travel to Provo, where BYU awaits.
How will the Wildcats fare following such an emotional win at home?
Kansas State Wildcats
Year two of Jerome Tang's tenure in Manhattan hasn't run as smoothly as his first season. The Wildcats secured a three-seed and came minutes away from appearing in the Final Four in 2022-23. Now, K-State is fighting tooth-and-nail for an NCAA tournament bid.
Offense has been a real struggle in the post-Markquis Nowell era, particularly in the turnover department. The Wildcats have undergone serious turnover regression, giving the ball away 21% of the time. That's one of the bottom-10 turnover rates in college hoops.
Additionally, Kansas State's offense focuses on Arthur Kaluma, Tylor Perry and Cam Carter. That trio accounts for about 70% of the Wildcats' scoring. The depth isn't strong, and K-State's offense is lost if the three don't get shots falling quickly.
Perry is the most important of the bunch. The North Texas import always scored efficiently at his previous school, but he's shooting only 34% from the floor with the Wildcats. He scored 21 points in the win over Kansas, which could generate positive momentum.
Plus, Perry has a penchant for hitting big shots.
Defensively, Kansas State is one of the Big 12's best units, ranking 22nd nationally, according to KenPom. The Wildcats limit opponents to a 46% effective field goal percentage and 31.2% from downtown.
K-State's defense hasn't surrendered more than 78 points in a single game since November 16 against Miami. The team isn't really built for track-meets, so it'll need another relatively low-scoring game on Saturday.
The Wildcats' strong 3-point defense should prove beneficial against BYU.
BYU Cougars
Shooting is the name of the game for the Cougars, as they attempt triples on 51% of their field goal attempts. Once BYU secures a rebound, it gets into transition and the shooters are shot-ready instantly.
While Kansas State is fairly predictable regarding who's scoring the ball, BYU is different.
Jaxson Robinson is the Cougars' go-to scorer, but Big 12 play hasn't treated him kindly. Robinson is shooting 16-of-58 (27%) from deep since conference play began. If BYU hopes to make a deep NCAA tournament run, that's a major problem.
Six players other than Robinson average more than nine points per game. It's a very balanced scoring attack for Mark Pope, and that's not a bad thing.
The status of playmaking big man Aly Khalifa is something to watch, as he's missed the past two games. There's a real argument for Khalifa being the most skilled passer in college hoops. The way he reads cutters and hits shooters directly in their shooting pocket is something numbers can't quantify.
Moreover, BYU is excellent on the defensive end, ranking in the top 25 in defensive efficiency (according to KenPom). There isn't a glaring weak point of BYU's defense — it's solid at the rim, strong on the perimeter and is an elite rebounding team.
BYU is coming off arguably it's worst defensive game in conference play, allowing 1.18 points per possession against Oklahoma. The quickness and strength of the Oklahoma guards caused problems for the Cougars in the second half of that contest, putting the game out of reach.
Facing the likes of Perry, Kaluma and Carter, the Cougars could come across similar issue.
Kansas State vs. BYU
Betting Pick & Prediction
Stylistically, I think the matchup favors Kansas State — since BYU rarely forces turnovers. If Kansas State hits shots from deep at a decent clip and limits turnovers, the offense would drastically improve.
Kansas State's defense offers the perfect combination of length and physicality to slow down BYU's rampant shooting attack.
I don't see anything glaring on the total, and I actually like Kansas State more than the metrics do. So, I'll take the value I see with the Wildcats on the road against BYU.
