Kentucky vs. Auburn Betting Guide: Will Defenses Set Pace in an Elite Eight SEC Showdown?

NCAA Tournament Betting Odds: #2 Kentucky vs. #5 Auburn

• Spread: Kentucky -4.5
• Over/Under: 143
• Location: Kansas City, Mo.
• Date: Sunday, March 31
• Time: 2:20 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS

An SEC showdown with a Final Four spot on the line? A traditional power against a team dripping with confidence? Yes, please.

Auburn will look to avenge two losses to Kentucky earlier this season in the Elite Eight on Sunday. The latter one came by 27 points just over a month ago.

Who will advance to the Final Four, and what will make the biggest difference? Our analysts dive in.

Market Report for Kentucky-Auburn

This line had to open higher than normal with Auburn's Chuma Okeke out for the rest of the tournament after tearing his ACL in the Sweet 16. Kentucky opened -3.5 and has moved to -4.5 behind 76% of the dollars wagered.

The total has also seen a big move, dropping from 143.5 to 141. Stay up to date on the latest odds and betting percentages in The Action Network app or on our Auburn-UK game page. — Steve Petrella

The "Hard to Beat a Team 3 Times" Myth

An old adage says that it's tough to beat a team three times in the same season, as Kentucky is trying to do vs. Auburn.

But that actually hasn't been the case — teams going for a third win in the conference or NCAA Tournament have won 72% of those contests. — Steve Petrella

Trends to Know

Auburn scored 97 points in a win over North Carolina in the Sweet 16.

Since 2005, teams that scored 80 or more points in their previous game have gone 124-154-8 (44.6%) ATS in the NCAA Tournament. If that team is an underdog, like Auburn, they have gone 43-80-4 (35.0%) ATS. — John Ewing

Auburn Red-Hot From 3

In Auburn's two losses to Kentucky this season, its offense wasn’t rolling like this. The Tigers have averaged 1.22 points per possession through their first three NCAA Tournament games, shooting 42.6% from behind the arc.

The Wildcats have allowed the 59th-highest 3-point scoring rate in the nation, and saw Wofford’s Fletcher Magee and Houston’s Corey Davis Jr. struggle to find 3-point strokes in the last two rounds. Don’t expect the same from Bruce Pearl’s red-hot bunch.

Okeke, the Tigers’ floor-spacing big, will miss this contest with a knee injury. But Auburn still possesses a bevy of perimeter threats (sixth-highest 3-point scoring rate), guided by its leading-scorer Bryce Brown (15.8 ppg). The 6-foot-3 guard gashed Kentucky in their first duel, delivering 28 points thanks to 6-of-7 shooting from behind the arc.

Brown will likely deal with a tough matchup in Tyler Herro, but he and his teammates should be able to create enough mismatches off the trouble to set up open looks behind the arc. — Eli Hershkovich

Kentucky Should Dominate Inside

The loss of Okeke provides Kentucky with an even bigger interior advantage than it already had. The 6-foot-8 sophomore was the Tigers leading rebounder, which will allow Kentucky’s fifth-best offensive rebounding unit to flourish. Senior center Reid Travis has posted back-to-back 11-rebound games, and leading scorer PJ Washington returned on Friday for added muscle inside.

Against Houston, the Wildcats struggled to find consistent offensive production. Sharpshooting guard Tyler Herro (19 points) paced Kentucky, which was greatly bolstered by Washington’s 16 points off the bench.

Auburn’s defense relies on forcing mistakes, as its No. 1 defensive turnover percentage illustrates. However, its half-court defensive metrics are below average. The Tigers rank 208th against the 3P and 219th against the 2P. Look for versatile Kentucky guard Keldon Johnson to take advantage with drives to the basket and pull-up jumpers.

The loss of Okeke should allow Kentucky to avoid any extended scoring droughts. –Mike Randle

Loss of Okeke Looms Large

The absence of Okeke can’t be overstated. I personally make Kentucky -2 at full strength (and it looked like PJ Washington was at 100% on Friday, although the one-day break may be tough on him). I have Okeke worth 2 points to the spread, which means I make this Kentucky -4 without Okeke. So there's no value on the spread.

However, Auburn could get an emotional boost from Pearl and the one-game “everyone else steps up” effect. — Stuckey

Stuckey: Why I'm Betting the Under

I think you have to go back to the well with a Kentucky under here. Historically, Elite 8 games have played very slow compared to the rest of the tourney, sans the national title, as teams get a little tighter with a trip to the Final Four on the line. This is where the experience differential could favor Auburn. Kentucky is the third-youngest team in the country, while Auburn has a roster with top 40 experience.

But I really like this under for a few big reasons.

I think we are getting a few extra points of value in the market due to recency bias after everyone saw what Auburn did against UNC in the Sweet 16. However, the loss of Okeke will slow down Auburn considerably in transition.

Also, not only is Kentucky excellent across the board on defense, it’s played slower since the start of SEC play — and the market just hasn’t caught up. Kentucky unders are 17-5 during the Wildcats’ past 22 games, including 3-0 in the NCAA Tournament.

You have to imagine that 3-point-reliant Auburn will be chucking once again, especially with the loss of Okeke. And while Kentucky has struggled with its perimeter defense at times, most of those issues came early in the season.

The Cats have allowed teams to shoot 34.5% on the season from 3 (180th in the nation) but improved significantly during conference play (32.5%).

These teams are very familiar with each other as this will be the third meeting of the year, which I think will benefit both defenses.

Stuckey's Pick: Under 141

Sean Koerner's Kentucky-Auburn Projections

These ratings were built by Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, a former oddsmaker and FantasyPros' most accurate in-season fantasy football ranker from 2015-2017.

• Spread: Kentucky -2.5
• Over/Under: 145.5
• Score: Kentucky 74 | Auburn 71.5
• Win Probability: Kentucky 57.2% | Auburn 42.8%

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game is from the individual writer and are based on his research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.