Kentucky vs Mississippi State Odds
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
+3.5 -105 | 156.5 -110o / -110u | +145 |
| Mississippi State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
-3.5 -115 | 156.5 -110o / -110u | -175 |
It's safe to say that the Kentucky Wildcats are one of the most dangerous teams in the sport when their offense is clicking. The Cats impressively destroyed Alabama on Saturday afternoon and accumulated a season-high 117 points in the effort.
There's a good chance the Cats' offense takes a step back on Tuesday evening when they travel to Starkville to take on Mississippi State. Chris Jans' Bulldogs are impressive on the defensive side of the floor and have won five games in a row.
The Cats cruised to a victory in the first meeting between these two teams, so the Bulldogs have revenge on their minds.
Here's Kentucky vs Mississippi State odds and a pick for Tuesday.
Kentucky Wildcats
There's not much more to say about the Cats' explosive offensive performance. The Cats were 41-of-65 from the field, including 13-of-24 from 3-point land against Alabama on Saturday.
Justin Edwards stole the show, dropping 28 points and going 4-of-4 from deep. If he keeps up the offensive consistency, the Cats will be impossible to stop.
The small-ball lineup that John Calipari has started to run with seems to be working well in the absence of Tre Mitchell. Once Mitchell returns, that's a huge asset to the defensive side of the floor.
As talented as the Cats are, there's bound to be a letdown after such a massive win. The offense is explosive, but negative shooting regression is bound to occur after that type of performance.
The Bulldogs' defense can cause issues for the Cats. The Bulldogs are 11th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and have been outstanding when it comes to defending the perimeter.
For the Cats to win a tough game on the road, they'll have to attack the rim to exploit the weakness in the Bulldogs' defense. If they find consistency on the interior, nothing is stopping them from winning the game.
Between the revenge factor and the offensive letdown potential, the Cats are a risky investment on Tuesday evening. There are still plenty of defensive issues for them to sort out, although the Bulldogs don't have a good offense.
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Mississippi State Bulldogs
Jans has done a terrific job with the Bulldogs, but their lack of offensive talent will cost them down the stretch in March. The Bulldogs are moderately 74th in Offensive Adjusted Efficiency but are lacking in several categories.
They rank in the bottom half of the country in 3-point percentage and turnover rate. They're also shooting 67% as a team at the charity stripe, which is catastrophic.
However, it seems that an unlikely source of offensive production has risen to the occasion in Josh Hubbard. Hubbard may only stand at 5-foot-10, but he's been an electric factory for the Bulldogs.
Hubbard is shooting 35% from deep and 83% at the charity stripe. He's the lone supplier of consistent offense from the backcourt and should find success against a struggling Cats defensive unit.
Forwards Tolu Smith and KeShawn Murphy draw a nice matchup against a Cats team that can't rebound the basketball, and they'll have the advantage if Calipari decides to stick with a small ball lineup. The problem is that the offense is slow and methodical and lacks consistent 3-point scoring.
Living inside of the arc isn't going to cut it against the Cats, which is a big reason why I'm afraid to back the Bulldogs in the game. There's a chance they struggle through stretches throughout the contest, even given the makeup of the Cats' defense.
The Bulldogs can win the game at home relying on their defense and keeping the tempo slow, but I don't have faith in their free-throw or 3-point shooting to keep up with the Cats.
Kentucky vs Mississippi State
Betting Pick & Prediction
Despite the obvious letdown spot for Kentucky, I'm hesitant to back the Bulldogs at home. The situational spot and revenge factor favor Jans' team, but there's only so much the defense can do to contain the Wildcats all evening long.
With that said, the best betting angle to take is the under. It's scary taking an under in a Kentucky game, but I truly believe the Bulldogs will control the tempo, and their defensive tenacity should limit the Cats throughout the contest.
There's some slight negative regression looming for their perimeter defense, but even so, I have faith they can contain the Cats. It also helps that the Cats can't repeat their recent offense performance, which leads me to believe we get an inflated total.
The game landed on 167 when these two played at Rupp Arena in January, but the situational circumstances are working in our favor.
Besides, the Bulldogs are playing much better basketball as of late, which should correlate to a big defensive effort at home.
