The Kentucky Wildcats take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Starkville, MS. Tip-off is set for 8:30 p.m. ET on SEC Network.
Mississippi State is favored by 4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -205. The total is set at 161.5 points.
Here are my Kentucky vs. Mississippi State predictions and college basketball picks for January 11, 2025.
Kentucky vs Mississippi State Prediction
My Pick: Kentucky +5 (Play to +4)
My Kentucky vs Mississippi State best bet is on the Wildcats to cover the spread, with the best odds currently available at bet365. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Kentucky vs Mississippi State Odds
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 161.5 -110 / -110 | +170 |
| Mississippi State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 161.5 -110 / -110 | -205 |
- Kentucky vs Mississippi State spread: Mississippi State -4.5
- Kentucky vs Mississippi State over/under: 161.5 points
- Kentucky vs Mississippi State moneyline: Mississippi State -205, Kentucky +170
- Kentucky vs Mississippi State best bet: Kentucky +5 (Play to +4)
Spread
I'm backing the Wildcats to cover the spread as road 'dogs in a fantastic situational spot.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline, but I wouldn't be surprised if Kentucky won outright.
Over/Under
I'm passing on the over/under.
My Pick: Kentucky +5 (Play to +4)
Kentucky vs Mississippi State College Basketball Betting Preview
The situational spot screams Kentucky.
The Wildcats are looking to bounce back off a tough road loss to Georgia, and they should be due for some positive shooting regression after canning just 6-of-25 3-point attempts (24%) on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are due to lose a game after eight consecutive victories. They’re also due for some negative shooting regression on defense after South Carolina and Vanderbilt canned just 7-of-45 3s (15%) through the first two conference games.
Also, let's not get too high on the Bulldogs. They could've easily lost to Utah (five-point win), SMU (five-point win) or McNeese State (three-point win). They only beat Prairie View A&M by seven at home in early December. I also wonder if Kanye Clary's absence will eventually come back to bite them.
From a schematic perspective, Chris Jans is uber-aggressive in his ball-screen coverage and dribble-penetration denial, which helps force turnovers at the point of attack while denying the paint and rim on the interior.
However, overaggressive ball-screen and dribble defense will be vulnerable to secondary motion-based offenses predicated on crisp perimeter passing and sharp weak-side spot-up shooting. 55% of opposing catch-and-shoot opportunities come unguarded against Mississippi State, the eighth-highest rate nationally.
Mark Pope’s offense is built upon complex secondary motion sets through dribble hand-offs and off-ball screening actions. It’s how Kentucky cans nearly 36% of its triples while ranking in the top 100 nationally in 3-point rate.
Even better, the Wildcats never turn the ball over, leading the nation in offensive turnover rate (12%). They’ll avoid Mississippi State’s aggressive attack and can rip the Bulldogs apart by tossing the ball around the perimeter.
Butler did something similar when it beat Mississippi State, the Bulldogs’ last loss. Butler managed to spread the floor and shoot 12-for-22 (55%) from deep, generating 10 points on five off-ball screening actions (1.4 PPP) and 24 points on 16 catch-and-shoot jumpers (1.5 PPP).
I’m banking on Kentucky doing the same in an excellent situational spot.
It gets tricky on the other end of the court, as Mississippi State is a ball-screen-heavy offense behind superstar point guard Josh Hubbard, and Kentucky can’t stay in front of the dribble.
However, Mississippi State’s offense is very rim-reliant, and Kentucky’s defense is surprisingly good at denying the rim. The Wildcats have some length and shot-blocking prowess on the front line between Amari Williams, Andrew Carr and Brandon Garrison.
I love the situational spot and regression angle for Kentucky, and I think the Wildcats can somewhat deny the rim while firing away from 3 on the other end.
The line is a tad low, but I have to take a shot with the Wildcats, who I think could serve Mississippi State a long-overdue loss.
