The Kentucky Wildcats take on the Ole Miss Rebels in Oxford, MS. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Ole Miss is favored by 4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -180. The total is set at 157 points.
Here are my Kentucky vs. Ole Miss predictions and college basketball picks for February 4, 2025.
Kentucky vs Ole Miss Prediction
My Pick: Ole Miss -4 (Play to -4.5)
My Kentucky vs Ole Miss best bet is on the Rebels spread, with the best odds currently available at Caesars. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Kentucky vs Ole Miss Odds
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -112 | 157 -112 / -108 | +150 |
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -108 | 157 -112 / -108 | -180 |
- Kentucky vs Ole Miss spread: Ole Miss -4.5
- Kentucky vs Ole Miss over/under: 157 points
- Kentucky vs Ole Miss moneyline: Ole Miss -180, Kentucky +150
- Kentucky vs Ole Miss best bet: Ole Miss -4 (Play to -4.5)
Spread
I like Ole Miss up to -4.5.
Moneyline
I have no play on the moneyline, which has no value.
Over/Under
I have no play on the total, as I'm targeting the spread.
My Pick: Ole Miss -4 (Play to -4.5)
Kentucky vs Ole Miss College Basketball Betting Preview
Kentucky Basketball
I'm still looking to fade the Kentucky Wildcats, who dropped their most anticipated game of the year to their ex-head coach John Calipari and Arkansas.
I backed Arkansas in that contest for two reasons — Kentucky is terrible defensively and standout guard Lamont Butler was out.
Both things remain true for this contest.
I don't think it's a coincidence that Kentucky's defense is getting worse with Butler injured. Kentucky is bad defensively either way, but not having an elite on-ball defender allows opposing guards plenty of driving room.
Arkansas rattled off a strong 1.22 PPP, which showcases how brutal the Wildcats are on that end of the floor.
Since January 1, Kentucky ranks No. 1 in offensive efficiency, per Bart Torvik, compared to 168th defensively.
Mark Pope is one of the sharpest offensive minds in the sport. It's not a surprise he modernized Kentucky in the post-Calipari era. The Wildcats' offense ranks third in offensive efficiency for the year, per KenPom.
They have a strong focus on perimeter shooting and controlling the ball, as they shoot a blistering 37% from downtown and have just a 14% turnover rate — two important ingredients to playing elite offense.
Moreover, with Butler down and Andrew Carr coming off the bench, Kentucky needs strong performances from Koby Brea and Ansley Almonor. Brea is an elite shooter (46% from 3), but he went 1-of-6 versus Arkansas.
Meanwhile, Almonor's shooting has cleared the path for him to play more, as he has four straight 10+ point outings.
Ole Miss Basketball
It's been a shaky last couple of weeks for Ole Miss. The Rebels lost three of their last four games, but two of the three were by one possession — an OT loss to Mississippi State and a blown 20-point lead to Texas A&M.
I'm still very optimistic that Ole Miss will finish the season strong.
Although Auburn rattled off 1.31 PPP versus the Rebels, their defense is elite. Ole Miss ranks 13th nationally in defensive efficiency and shines in two key areas: forcing turnovers (22% turnover rate) and holding opponents to 30% from deep.
That's not a real stunner for a Chris Beard-coached team with his sidekick — Mark Adams — on staff. That was his bread and butter in Lubbock, and that remains true in Oxford.
Ole Miss has six players who average nine-plus points per game, led by All-Conference standout Sean Pedulla. The former Virginia Tech Hokie is the clear go-to guy, scoring 15 points per game on 40% from 3.
The guard tandem of Pedulla and the speedy Jaylen Murray should feast on Kentucky's shaky defense.
The primary obstacle Ole Miss needs to evade is taking a beating on the glass. Even if Ole Miss is elite defensively, it's important not to allow second chances. That's something the Rebs do often, ranking 235th in defensive rebounding rate.
The good thing is Kentucky grabs offensive boards just 30% of the time — and even less so with Carr on the bench in favor of Almonor.
Kentucky vs. Ole Miss Betting Analysis
I'm on the Rebels here. I think they're the better team from top-to-bottom — they have a full arsenal of weapons, while Kentucky is battling injuries.
I just have no clue how the Wildcats slow down a pair of ball-handling maestros in Pedulla and Murray.
That pair could absolutely dominate this scuffling Kentucky defense.
You can make a fairly compelling spot case for Ole Miss, too; it's coming off a tough loss to the best team in the country and has three losses in four games while a similar scuffling team awaits.
I'd be surprised if the fans in Oxford don't energize the home Rebs.
