The Kentucky Wildcats take on the Tennessee Volunteers in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. Tip-off is set for 7:39 p.m. ET on TBS.
Tennessee is favored by 4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -200. The total is set at 144.5 points.
Here are my Kentucky vs. Tennessee predictions and college basketball picks for March 28, 2025.
Kentucky vs Tennessee Prediction
My Pick: Kentucky +4.5 (Play to +3.5)
My Kentucky vs Tennessee best bet is on the Wildcats spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Kentucky vs Tennessee Odds, Lines
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 144.5 -110o / -110u | +165 |
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 144.5 -110o / -110u | -200 |
- Kentucky vs Tennessee spread: Tennessee -4.5
- Kentucky vs Tennessee over/under: 144.5 points
- Kentucky vs Tennessee moneyline: Tennessee -200, Kentucky +165
- Kentucky vs Tennessee best bet: Kentucky +4.5 (Play to +3.5)
My Kentucky vs Tennessee Sweet 16 Betting Preview
You often hear people proclaim how difficult it is to beat a team three times.
We’ll see if that matters, especially in the Big Dance, as the Kentucky Wildcats try to take a third win over the Tennessee Volunteers.
I believe in the Wildcats more now than I did for most of the season because they play defense now. From opening night to February 1st, Kentucky ranked 74th in defensive efficiency, but it's jumped over 40 spots to 42nd since.
Containing elite guards was a significant issue — they allowed opponents to shoot over 52% from inside the arc.
In the two prior matchups with the Vols, Kentucky shot 12-for-24 from 3 in both games. That’s the type of performance Kentucky needs to beat Tennessee again. T
he Wildcats' potent offense is fully capable of another offensive explosion.
The X factor for Kentucky is veteran guard Lamont Butler.
He is playing in his fifth NCAA Tournament and seems to thrive under the bright lights. He scored 14 points in the Round of 32 and will likely have success slowing down the speedy Zakai Zeigler.
All of Kentucky’s five starters average over 10 points per game. I wouldn’t call anybody the go-to scorer, which isn’t bad. Having that level of point distribution can be helpful if the “top option” has an off-game. Otega Oweh leads with 16 points per game, but he doesn’t feel like the clear main option. The Wildcats can rely on Buter, Oweh, Koby Brea, or Amari Williams to score on any night.
Tennessee allows a nearly 45% 3-point rate. Kentucky will get its shots off.
Tennessee had two pretty easy wins in the Round of 64 and Round of 32, so this will likely be its first real test of the Big Dance.
Rick Barnes needs his top three guards — Zeigler, Chaz Lanier and Jordan Gainey — to score.
If that trio consistently connects on shots, the Vols will be a tough out. None of the three are very efficient scorers, though. Lanier is shooting 43% from the field and an elite 41% from deep, while Gainey and Zeigler are shooting around 40% from the field and 30% from deep.
That’s part of why I don’t trust the Vols. If the guards don’t score, they don’t have a good shot to beat a team like Kentucky.
Of course, it’s a Coach Rick Barnes-led team, so defense is the bread and butter. The Vols rank 11th nationally in defensive efficiency and have held teams to 48% shooting from 2 and 30% from 3 since February 1.
However, the Vols rank outside the top-100 in offensive and defensive rebounding rate in the same span, so Kentucky can use some of its size to create extra possessions and win the shot volume battle.
I like Kentucky getting the points here. I think the Wildcats can win outright, but I’ll gladly take the 4.5 points.
