There is a negative vibe around the Bluegrass, given the uncertainty around the playing status of Kentucky’s All-American, PJ Washington. The Cats looked all set to make a deep tournament run as the 2-seed in the Midwest Region, until Washington showed up to Thursday night’s game on a scooter, his left foot in a hard cast.
Rumors have been running wild around Big Blue Nation since fans first learned of Washington’s injury earlier in the week. Everyone across the state claims to have a cousin or a neighbor who knows a manager or a grad assistant on the team, and their reports range from “Washington is playing it safe and will be back next week” to “Washington’s leg was amputated last night and he’ll never be in a UK uniform again.”
The past 48 hours have been full of speculation and hearsay — plus a ton of panic — as the UK fan base wonders what to make of Kentucky’s tournament life, with or without Washington. John Calipari confirmed on Friday that Washington will not play on against Wofford on Saturday. Anything beyond that is day to day.
Whatever the case, I’m here to tell everyone that Kentucky will be fine without Washington in Saturday’s game. I say that with all due respect to Wofford, a team I would be rooting for in any other scenario.
I took a liking to Wofford on Thursday night when I sat through the entire Wofford-Seton Hall game, and I think the Terriers are as fun to watch as any team in the field. Having heard so much about the Terriers' 3-point shooting prowess, I made sure I had a front-row seat to watch Fletcher Magee & Co. take the NCAA stage for the first time in front of a national audience.
And they did not disappoint.
I loved everything I saw out of Magee and his teammates in how they closed out the game after Seton Hall made a second-half push to steal the lead. It was a tight game with only four minutes to go, when Wofford turned a one-point game into a 10-point game in a matter of seconds, and went on to win by 16. It was a wild stretch of 3-point shooting, and it showed exactly why everyone with a bracket considered Wofford a potential Cinderella story this March.
But as good as Wofford is, Kentucky is Kentucky. Even without Washington, Kentucky is a team of future pros with unique athleticism and length across the board, while Wofford is just a bunch of shooters — very good shooters, but Kentucky’s players aren’t having nightmares about a team coming out of the Southern Conference. UK sophomore big man Nick Richards even went as far to say, “We are just better than them overall.” (John Calipari didn’t love that comment.)
I will say, though, Kentucky can’t just show up and expect to win. The Cats will still need to be ready to play, especially defensively.
If there is a reason to like Wofford in this matchup, it is that Kentucky’s 3-point defense ranks 213th nationally and Wofford’s 3-point shooting ranks second nationally at 41.6% on the year. Those are the two numbers everyone will talk about because, on paper, it favors the Terriers and a potential upset.
But in reality, Kentucky is MUCH better defensively today than it was earlier in the year, so the number is a little skewed. Teams shot more than 40% percent from outside on Kentucky in the month of November; in the month of March, only 31%.
Wofford’s 3-point shooting is skewed, too. In 29 games against non-Power 5 opponents, Wofford shot 43.1% from beyond the arc; in the five games against Power 5 teams, only 34.7%.
So, yeah, Wofford can shoot the lights out. I’m in no way suggesting otherwise. But Wofford will need to get those shots over professional-level athleticism and length in Saturday’s game. The Terriers aren’t used to doing it against teams like Kentucky.
And let’s not forget, Wofford has to play defense too. Many people are asking if Kentucky can stop Wofford’s shooting, but how is Wofford going to stop Reid Travis? It may take all five players to slow Kentucky’s big man down, and Travis is only one of the many weapons John Calipari will have attacking the basket. How will Wofford stop Keldon Johnson, who scored 25 points in his NCAA Tournament debut Thursday night? How will Wofford stop Tyler Herro, one of the best all-around scorers in college basketball?
I understand why Wofford is the media darling this March, but I also have eyeballs and those eyeballs see mismatches in Kentucky’s favor at almost every position, even with PJ Washington in street clothes on the bench.
If you’re Kentucky, Wofford should absolutely be respected, but in no way should Wofford be feared.
You can focus on Wofford’s 3-point shooting and PJ Washington’s absence all you want, but at the end of the day, it is the University of Kentucky, college basketball’s most winningest program and its NBA factory, versus Wofford College.
Don’t overthink this one. Cats win and cover.
