The Louisville Cardinals take on the Duke Blue Devils in the ACC Tournament final. Tip-off is set for 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Duke is favored by 6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -285. The total is set at 143.5 points.
Here’s my Louisville vs. Duke predictions and college basketball picks for March 15, 2025.
Louisville vs Duke Prediction
My Pick: Duke -6.5 (Play to -8)
My Louisville vs Duke best bet is on the Blue Devils spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Louisville vs Duke Odds
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 143.5 -110o / -110u | +230 |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 143.5 -110o / -110u | -285 |
- Louisville vs Duke spread: Duke -6.5
- Louisville vs Duke over/under: 143.5 points
- Louisville vs Duke moneyline: Duke -285, Louisville +230
- Louisville vs Duke best bet: Duke -6.5 (Play to -8)
Spread
I'm taking the Blue Devils on the spread up to -8, even without Cooper Flagg.
Moneyline
There's no value on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I don't have a play on the total, only the spread.
My Pick: Duke -6.5 (Play to -8)
Louisville vs Duke College Basketball Betting Preview
The Duke Blue Devils squandered a 24-point lead against North Carolina without Flagg, but a Jae'Lyn Withers lane violation allowed Jon Scheyer's bunch to advance to the title game.
Louisville, meanwhile, held on against Clemson after blowing a double-digit lead with three minutes left.
Life without Flagg is interesting. Duke still has no shortage of talent, including two surefire top-10 NBA draft picks in Kon Knueppel and defensive anchor Khaman Maluach. Still, Duke is without Maliq Brown, the backup to Maluach, so it's a bit thin.
Can Duke manage a cover without the National Player of the Year and another key cog? The line sits at Duke -6.5 (at the time of writing) compared to KenPom's line of -10, which means Flagg accounts for over a possession worth of value.
I think that's very accurate.
It's not like Louisville is the model of health, either. The Cardinals played without Reyne Smith in the first two games of the ACC Tournament, and he's the best shooter in the conference. That's not even mentioning Kasean Pryor and Koren Johnson, who haven't played in months.
Bettors might be reluctant to take Duke after how the UNC game ended. I get it, but we can't ignore Duke once led by 24 points in the second half.
Plus, Louisville's legs have to be getting a bit flimsy. It stormed back from a big deficit against Stanford and held on for dear life against Clemson. After two grueling games, facing the lengthy, physical Duke defense is a tough ask.
Louisville doesn't have nearly as much shooting without Smith, too. It shot 34% and 27% in the first two games of the ACC Tournament.
Duke shot just 5-of-22 from deep versus UNC in the semis. Flagg isn't an elite shooter, but his presence on the rim opens up perimeter looks. That means not having him is a real factor.
However, Tyrese Proctor and Isaiah Evans — two knockdown shooters — went 0-of-8 from downtown. I don't see that continuing here, even without Flagg.
The Blue Devils' defense remains dominant, ranking fourth in KenPom's defensive efficiency while holding teams to a 44% effective field goal percentage and a 43% 2-point percentage.
Louisville is shooting just 33% from deep this year, with 48% of its shots coming from that area of the floor. It'll need to turn the shooting woes around to have a real shot to beat Duke — or the Flagg-less Blue Devils could cruise.
I'm banking on the Blue Devils' shooting and defense to lead them to a cover in the ACC title game.
