The Loyola Marymount Lions take on the Santa Clara Broncos in Santa Clara, CA. Tip-off is set for 11 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Santa Clara is favored by 11 points on the spread with a moneyline of -700. The total is set at 148 points.
Here are my Loyola Marymount vs. Santa Clara predictions and college basketball picks for February 20, 2025.
Loyola Marymount vs Santa Clara Prediction
My Pick: Loyola Marymount +10 or Better
My Loyola Marymount vs Santa Clara best bet is on the Lions spread, with the best odds currently available at FanDuel. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
LMU vs Santa Clara Odds, Lines, Pick
| Loyola Marymount Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11 -110 | 148 -110 / -110 | +500 |
| Santa Clara Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11 -110 | 148 -110 / -110 | -700 |
- Loyola Marymount vs Santa Clara spread: Santa Clara -11
- Loyola Marymount vs Santa Clara over/under: 148 points
- Loyola Marymount vs Santa Clara moneyline: Santa Clara -700, Loyola Marymount +500
- Loyola Marymount vs Santa Clara best bet: Loyola Marymount +10 or Better
My Loyola Marymount vs Santa Clara NCAAB Betting Preview
Loyola Marymount stunned Santa Clara in mid-January, upsetting the Broncos as four-point home ‘dogs.
It was a rock fight, as the Lions turned out a 57-54 win in a game in which both teams combined to shoot 7-for-44 (16%) from 3.
I imagine many gamblers will look toward Santa Clara in a revenge spot, especially given Loyola Marymount has lost four of its past five.
However, I actually love this matchup for the Lions and believe their effort from the first head-to-head meeting is repeatable.
Santa Clara's five-out spread offense is predicated on positional size and shot creation from all five spots. The Broncos primarily use on-ball screening actions to win at the rim or from 3, ranking second nationally in rim-and-3 rate (95%, per ShotQuality).
However, Loyola Marymount is among the few teams nationally with the size to match up with the Broncos (10th nationally in average height, 78.9 inches, per KenPom).
The Lions also run a drop-coverage defensive scheme that’s elite at catch-and-shoot and rim-denial, ranking in the top 25 nationally in rim-and-3 rate allowed (77%, per ShotQuality).
And they’re an elite ball-screen coverage squad (.81 PPP allowed, 86th percentile, per Synergy).
Yes, Santa Clara shot just 4-for-26 (15%) from 3 in the first matchup, but Loyola Marymount is elite at taking away quality 3-point looks.
At the same time, the Broncos only managed 10 attempts at the rim, a 17% field goal attempt rate, which is far lower than their season average (40%, per CBB Analytics). And they managed only 16 points on 24 ball screens, a gross .67 PPP (per Synergy).
The Lions are the perfect defense to stifle Santa Clara’s attack.
On the other end of the court, the Broncos’ dynamic spread offense comes with a defensive compromise, where they’re a tad weak on the interior. That shows up primarily in post-up coverage, where the Lions allow over 1.00 PPP on high-volume (eighth percentile, per Synergy).
Meanwhile, the Lions are a pace-and-post offense. They often work in transition while primarily running the half-court offense through Jevon Porter and Alex Merkviladze in the post.
It’s always hard to score on Santa Clara’s tough transition-denial defense. Still, the Lions scored 10 points on 10 post-up sets in the first meeting, with leading scoring guard Caleb Stone-Carrawell getting in the action with two buckets on three sets.
When the dust settled, Loyola Marymount scored 34 paint points on 17-for-28 shooting (61%, per CBB Analytics).
Ultimately, I think that performance is repeatable. The Lions may not win outright, but I could easily see them staying within a double-digit spread by attacking Santa Clara through the post while defending the Broncos’ rim-and-3 attempts on the other end.
Go Lions!
