The LSU Tigers take on the Alabama Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa, AL. Tip-off is set for 8:30 p.m. ET on SEC Network.
Alabama is favored by 16 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1350. The total is set at 166.5 points.
Here are my LSU vs. Alabama predictions and college basketball picks for January 25, 2025.
LSU vs Alabama Prediction
My Pick: PASS | Lean LSU +16
My LSU vs Alabama best bet is on the Tigers spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
LSU vs Alabama Odds
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+16 -108 | 166.5 -110o / -110u | +800 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-16 -112 | 166.5 -110o / -110u | -1350 |
- LSU vs Alabama spread: Alabama -16
- LSU vs Alabama over/under: 166.5 points
- LSU vs Alabama moneyline: Alabama -1350, LSU +800
- LSU vs Alabama best bet: PASS | Lean LSU +16
Spread
I'm passing on this game altogether. But if I were forced to pick a side, I'd take the points with the Tigers.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm passing on the over/under.
My Pick: PASS | Lean LSU +16
LSU vs Alabama College Basketball Betting Preview
Alabama is back to its usual tricks. The Tide have scored 100 points in back-to-back games, marking the sixth time this season they’ve achieved the century mark in a single game. Nate Oats is one excellent coach, especially because the Tide haven’t been shooting the ball great (32% from 3) and are playing much better defense.
Conversely, LSU hasn’t been doing much right lately, losing four of the past five games while failing to cover the spread as ‘dogs in all four losses.
That said, I suspect the Tigers are due for some serious positive regression. In their five conference games, they’ve shot under 30% from 3, while opponents have shot over 38%, two unsustainable marks that should flip soon.
LSU hasn’t been a bad two-way team on the interior, shooting 52% from 2-point range while holding opponents to under 48%, and the Tigers are borderline-elite both ways at the rim.
But when you lead the SEC in 3-point rate (46%, per KenPom), poor shooting streaks can lead to disaster.
Regardless of the regression, can the Tigers slow down the Tide?
Maybe. They might be able to in the half-court.
Alabama’s offense is predicated on dribble penetration to shrink the floor and kick to an open shooter. But LSU’s ball-screen dribble defense has been borderline elite (.66 PPP allowed, 87th percentile, per Synergy), and the Tigers are a half-decent catch-and-shoot denial squad.
Ultimately, you have to limit Alabama at the rim and from the 3-point line. LSU ranks in the top 90 nationally in rim-and-3 rate allowed and in the top 10 in rim-and-3 PPP allowed (per ShotQuality).
That said, LSU’s transition defense leaves much to be desired, and Alabama is always elite running the open floor.
On the other end of the court, LSU is also a transition-heavy, rim-and-3-based offense. But Alabama’s drop coverage anchored by Clifford Omoruyi is elite at denying rim-and-3 opportunities (seventh nationally in rim-and-3 rate allowed, per ShotQuality), and the Tide are a much better transition-denial squad.
Additionally, the Tigers’ ball-handling and rebounding issues will result in a massive shot-volume disadvantage against a Tide team that will smash the offensive boards and get to the line at will.
Ultimately, I think LSU is a tad undervalued and due for some positive two-way shooting regression. I also wouldn’t be surprised if the Tigers’ solid dribble penetration and rim-and-3 defense keep Alabama from running away with this game.
But I don’t show any value on the Tigers, as I project this spread right around the market price. And their transition denial and shot-volume disadvantages are keeping me away.
