The LSU Tigers take on the Kentucky Wildcats in Lexington, KY. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Kentucky is favored by 12.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -650. The total is set at 157.5 points.
Here’s my LSU vs. Kentucky predictions and college basketball picks for March 4, 2025.
LSU vs Kentucky Prediction
My Pick: Over 157.5 (Play to 159.5)
My LSU vs Kentucky best bet is on the over, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
LSU vs Kentucky Odds
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -115 | 157.5 -110o / -110u | +470 |
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -105 | 157.5 -110o / -110u | -650 |
- LSU vs Kentucky spread: Kentucky -12.5
- LSU vs Kentucky over/under: 157.5 points
- LSU vs Kentucky moneyline: Kentucky -650, LSU +470
- LSU vs Kentucky best bet: Over 157.5 (Play to 159.5)
Spread
I'm avoiding the spread.
Moneyline
I'm also not making a play on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I expect a high-scoring game in this matchup, with value on the over.
My Pick: Over 157.5 (Play to 159.5)
LSU vs Kentucky College Basketball Betting Preview
The LSU Tigers come into this matchup on a three-game losing streak. However, that's just the latest portion of their season-long struggles against the SEC.
The Tigers are a whopping 3-13 in conference play and now go on the road to Rupp Arena, where the Kentucky Wildcats have played some of their best ball.
LSU has been inconsistent on the offensive end of the floor, but it may find success against the Wildcats. Nearly 41% of the Tigers' offense has come from inside the paint, and they've converted over 61% of their attempts.
Kentucky has allowed its opponents to make nearly 65% of their shots from the painted area.
Additionally, the Wildcats have allowed their opposition to take plenty of 3s this season, as they rank 322nd in defensive 3-point rate. We saw that burn them Saturday when the Auburn Tigers shot nearly 50% from long range.
LSU has shown the ability to take plenty of 3s, ranking 77th in offensive 3-point rate. While the Tigers haven't been very efficient from long range, that volume in an up-tempo matchup should lead to more success than usual.
Our angle relies on the Wildcats bouncing back offensively. They've been one of the most consistent and efficient offensive teams in the country. They enter this matchup eighth in adjusted offensive efficiency and 18th in effective field goal percentage.
What makes them so dynamic is that they're efficient while maintaining the 33rd-fastest tempo in the country. Their backcourt of Otega Oweh and Koby Brea can get it done in various ways – even if they're weaker after the loss of Jaxson Robinson (done for the season).
We should see them succeed at all three levels, as nearly 42% of the points the Tigers have allowed this season have come inside the paint.
Oweh will be able to penetrate and finish at the rim, but when he can't, Brea will have the green light from downtown, as any long-range misses should be cleaned up by Amari Williams.
LSU is 345th in defensive rebounding rate and 330th in defensive second-chance conversion rate. Those second-chance opportunities will allow the Wildcats to light up the scoreboard all night long.
Kentucky is going to lead the dance here, as it has the opportunity to control the tempo and has multiple avenues to put points on the board.
However, the Wildcats have holes on the defensive end that the Tigers can exploit while they attempt to keep up.
This game will be defined by Kentucky's pace and ability to go on extended scoring runs, but the Tigers may not be too far behind on the scoreboard.
This will lead to the game going over the total.
