The LSU Tigers take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in the SEC Tournament. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on SEC Network.
Mississippi State is favored by 8.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -440. The total is set at 147.5 points.
Here are my LSU vs. Mississippi State predictions and college basketball picks for March 12, 2025.
LSU vs Mississippi State Prediction
My Pick: LSU +8 or Better
My LSU vs Mississippi State best bet is on the Tigers spread, with the best odds currently available at BetRivers. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
LSU vs Mississippi State Odds
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -108 | 147.5 -108o / -112u | +340 |
| Mississippi State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -112 | 147.5 -108o / -112u | -440 |
- LSU vs Mississippi State spread: Mississippi State -8.5
- LSU vs Mississippi State over/under: 147.5 points
- LSU vs Mississippi State moneyline: Mississippi State -440, LSU +340
- LSU vs Mississippi State best bet: LSU +8 or Better
Spread
I'm backing the Tigers to cover the spread as three-possession underdogs.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm passing on the over/under.
My Pick: LSU +8 or Better
LSU vs Mississippi State College Basketball Betting Preview
Mississippi State hung around in the top 25 of the AP Poll for much of the season and was 7-6 in SEC play after taking down Texas A&M on February 17.
The Bulldogs have since lost four of five to end the regular season, dropping an overtime game to Texas and a one-point game to Arkansas in the final week.
It was a brutal way to end the year, but it could represent a good buy-low spot for Mississippi State in the league tournament against a Tigers squad that the Bulldogs beat by double digits less than two weeks ago.
Mississippi State won that first matchup by protecting the rim (seven blocks) and dominating in transition (18 fast-break points).
Josh Hubbard also ripped apart LSU’s typically good ball-screen coverage defense, scoring 15 points on 13 sets (1.15 PPP) en route to 30 total points on 7-for-9 2-point shooting and 10-for-11 from the free throw line.
Behind Hubbard, the Bulldogs shot 20-for-24 (83%) in the paint.
Aside from interior defense, LSU didn’t play awful. The Tigers battled on the boards and handled the ball alright against Chris Jans’ aggressive ball-screen coverage defense, ultimately winning the shot-volume battle by 13 (64 attempts to 51).
They finished well inside the arc (16-for-28, 57%), but lackluster perimeter shooting did them in (9-for-36, 25%), and that’s imperative given that LSU leads the league in 3-point rate (45%) while Mississippi State’s dribble-drive overhelp defense allows a high catch-and-shoot rate.
I’m inclined to think that LSU should see some much-needed positive shooting regression in the rematch and that the Tigers are undervalued relative to this line.
Some of the projection sites agree. Bart Torvik and Haslametrics project Mississippi State as just a six-point neutral-court favorite, while KenPom and our Action PRO Model project the number closer to 6.5 or seven.
It’s a tough pick because Hubbard and the Bulldogs should eat in transition and at the rim again.
But the Tigers have to be better in ball-screen coverage than they were in the first matchup (.77 PPP allowed on the season, 95th percentile, per Synergy), and they're typically good at avoiding fouls (33% free-throw rate allowed, third in the SEC, per KenPom).
Ultimately, the Tigers should hang around for 40 minutes if they make their 3s. I’ll take a shot on that happening by hitting this inflated line.
