Friday NCAA Tournament Best Bets
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12:15 p.m. | |
| 12:15 p.m. | |
  | 12:40 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
The first round of the NCAA Tournament rolls on, and that means more games to bet on from 12:15 p.m. ET to well past midnight.
Here's March Madness best bets and three picks for Friday's early games, including Baylor vs. Colgate and Florida Atlantic vs Northwestern on March 22.
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Northwestern vs. Florida Atlantic
FAU -3.5
By Matt Gannon
This is going to be a really fun 8/9 matchup to start our Friday of endless hoops. Both Florida Atlantic and Northwestern have statements to make and expect to take on the 1-seed on Sunday.
Northwestern came out of the gates in a strong way this season and sat atop the Big Ten standings early.
Midway through the season, however, it dealt with some key injuries. That really derailed its chances to take a crack at the Big Ten regular-season title, but it hung on to punch its ticket to the Big Dance.
Senior guard Boo Buie is the leader of this Wildcats team. He’s a do-it-all point guard who can score from anywhere and drop 30 points on any given night. Expect the ball to be in his hands at some point on every Northwestern offensive possession.
If the Wildcats want to advance, he’ll need to take control.
Florida Atlantic had something of an up-and-down year, but it still found its way into the NCAA Tournament, which is what matters.
This team seemed to have an eye on March all year long, losing a few games to inferior teams it probably should have won.
FAU has almost every piece from last year's squad intact for another tournament run, and I expect it to start with a win.
The Owls are a much deeper squad than Northwestern, which will show down the stretch. I expect Northwestern to come out of the gates strong with Buie, but the overall strength of FAU should be more important in the end.
This team has as much tournament experience as anyone, which is extremely important in this setting.
Ride with the Owls here.
Pick: FAU -3.5 (Play to -4.5)
Vladislav Goldin Points + Rebounds Over 24.5
By Brett Pund
Northwestern is going to be missing a key piece in the middle of its defense in this matchup, so I believe the way to take advantage of this from a betting perspective is in the player prop market.
The Wildcats will be without starting big man Matthew Nicholson. The veteran 7-footer is the primary defender for opposing post players and foes driving to the basket.
Nicholson has missed the last three games against Michigan State, Minnesota and Wisconsin. In those games, low-post scorers went to work against Northwestern.
Michigan State’s Malik Hall racked up 15 points and 17 rebounds, followed by the Gophers’ Dawson Garcia dropping 30 points to go with nine boards. Steven Crowl capped off this stretch with another 19 points and seven rebounds for Wisconsin.
I like Florida Atlantic’s Vladislav Goldin to keep this run going.
Goldin has been playing at such a high level that he may not have even needed Nicholson being out. Over the last 10 games, this same bet would have cashed in eight contests.
During this stretch, Goldin has averaged 19.5 points and 7.0 rebounds per game. He's also done a good job of avoiding foul issues, failing to pick up five fouls in a game in his last 14 contests.
You could also elect to go with his points prop, but I like the bonus for him to rack up some rebounds here.
Pick: Vladislav Goldin Points + Rebounds Over 24.5
Colgate vs. Baylor
On the surface, this is an excellent matchup for Colgate.
The Raiders are an elite ball-screen and 3-point defense battling a Baylor team that creates primarily out of the perimeter pick-and-roll while shooting the lights out.
Meanwhile, the Raiders are a post-heavy offense that plays mostly through Keegan Records down low, and Baylor is an indigent post-up defense.
That said, Baylor’s athleticism and talent likely overwhelm Colgate. The Raiders are a Patriot League squad with Patriot League talent, while Baylor has three future NBA draft picks in the backcourt.
Colgate likely struggles mightily to stop RayJ Dennis and Ja’Kobe Walter off the bounce. The Raiders run a high drop-coverage defense, which will bait Baylor’s ball-handlers into middle-of-the-floor creation.
I’m sure they'll happily oblige and carve up Colgate in the mid-range against Braeden Smith and Brady Cummins.
Colgate has a good perimeter defense, but the Raiders have a tougher time defending the rim.
I’m imagining Baylor’s backcourt dribble-driving through Colgate’s defense toward the rim like an alpine skier carving down Thunder Ridge Ski Area (the closest skiable mountain to Hamilton, New York — and a place where I won a ski race at 11 years old, fun fact).
Meanwhile, Records had a lovely time carving up other Patriot League big men, but Yves Missi is an uber-athletic interior defender who can overwhelm Records at every block.
And for all of Baylor’s struggles, Missi posted top-notch post-up defensive metrics (.69 PPP allowed, 79th percentile) despite playing all of the talented Big 12 big men.
The main problem for Baylor’s defense this year was that Scott Drew historically runs a no-middle scheme that requires physical guards who can push opposing guards toward the baselines and sidelines.
For all their offensive wizardry, Dennis and Walker are horrific point-of-attack defenders, so Baylor’s no-middle collapsed at the outset, allowing dribble penetration into the middle of the floor. So, it wasn’t really Missi’s fault on the back end.
And because Drew’s no-middle scheme flailed, he actually dusted off the old 1-3-1 zone in the second half of conference play.
If he opts for that route, Colgate could be in trouble, given the Raiders played one conference game against heavy zone, scoring 20 points in 29 zone offense possessions (.69 PPP) and almost losing to Bucknell as a 12-point home favorite.
The Raiders can’t overcome the talent discrepancy here. They haven’t this year, losing by 27 to Arizona, 17 to Illinois and 18 to Yale.
Meanwhile, Baylor has beaten every non-power conference opponent this season by at least 15 points.
The Bears roll in the first round.
