With our awesome app and tools, we try to make sports betting as non-overwhelming as possible. But it still has its moments for all of us: You like that spread at +7 with -110 juice, but is it still viable at +8 and -120 juice?
In the ramp up to this year's NCAA Tournament, we've released a ton of data, including proprietary power ratings that have allowed us to give "true" odds on every team to win each game and thus the "true" spread on it.
So we thought it might help if we gave out a handy sheet (download it below) that has our win probabilities built in, and at your own leisure you can insert the spreads, moneylines and parlay values at your own sportsbooks and see how they stack up to our projections. It's another way to make betting less of a math headache.
Below you'll find a sheet with three tabs, one for spreads, one for moneylines and another with a parlay calculator. Again, just insert your book's numbers and we'll spit out the projected edge. Yes, it's literally that simple.
But first, let me highlight a couple Thursday spots in which there's likely an edge for everyone. I'll be doing this for each day's slate of games throughout the Big Dance.
Biggest Betting Edges for Thursday's NCAA Tournament
The three biggest edges in spread betting currently are as follows:
- Michigan -15.5 (projected spread of -19.5, 11.8% edge)
- Michigan State -19 (projected spread of -22, 8.4% edge)
- Saint Mary's +6 (projected spread of +3, 8.4% edge)
There are even bigger edges (see the sheet for those) in betting the moneylines for tomorrow, including an underdog in Seton Hall which we have with better odds than its +132 line suggests. But that's just the fourth-highest moneyline edge of the day, per our numbers.
And if you really like betting parlays, there are some rare edges there tomorrow as well.
For example, we have the "true" odds of Kansas and Auburn both winning at 71%, but the parlay odds in the market are right around 52.4%, good for a whopping 18.1% edge.
There are many more edges, so download the sheet below. Talk to you guys Friday.
NCAA Tournament Thursday Betting Slate: Best Spread, Moneyline and Parlay Values
Download the Excel doc to input odds from your sportsbooks. The table below is best viewed on a desktop computer.
