One of the cool things about Bet Labs is you can find inefficiencies within the betting market. It can be overwhelming to handicap all 68 teams in the NCAA Tournament, learn rotations and research offensive and defensive tendencies. So sometimes it's wise to just find edges in the market itself.
One edge in the Sweet 16 and later in the NCAA Tournament is fading the public. In general, taking undersupported teams in the Big Dance has been profitable: Since 2004, teams getting less than 50% of the spread bets have hit at a 52.1% rate. Favorites in that scenario have gone 55.2% historically, good for a 7.3% Return on Investment.
But most of that value is in the Round of 32, where those favorites have hit at a 64.5% rate for a 25.1% ROI. In the Sweet 16, for whatever reason, those favorites are just 40% ATS for a -20.6% ROI. It's a small sample, but I found it interesting that the value on favorites declined in the tournament's second weekend.
Don't worry, though: There are still profitable situations in which you can fade the public in the second weekend and later. The biggest caveat, of course, is that the sample size on these trends is small — there just haven't been that many Sweet 16, Elite 8 and Final Four games in the last decade, obviously. With that small sample size caveat, let's run through a couple…
Fading the Sweet 16 Public on Over/Unders
Really undersupported unders — bets getting less than 35% of the action — have done well historically in the second weekend on, going 52-39-1 (57.1%) for a 10.6% Return on Investment:
Of note, these situations have not been profitable ones to focus on earlier in the tournament: These over/unders have a negative ROI in the first weekend. Just in the Sweet 16, however, these unders have gone 33-18-1, good for a 24.7% ROI since 2004.
Perhaps with fewer and more public games, the bigger market in the second weekend inflates the lines to where it's more profitable than usual to go against the mainstream. There's one match so far this weekend:
- Under 119.5 in Virginia-Oregon, March 28 at 9:59 p.m. ET
It seems the public has seen that incredibly low number — North Carolina-Auburn on Friday is at 164, for reference — and thought there's no way it should be that low. As a result, 67% of bets are on the over.
Fading the Sweet 16 Public on Spreads
Likewise, there seems to be some value on fading the public on spreads. Per Bet Labs, underdogs getting half the bets or fewer in the Sweet 16 on have performed well, going 74-65-6 (53.2%), good for a 3.5% ROI. We can do better, though: If those underdogs aren't top-four seeds, they've gone 36-16-3 (69.2%), good for a 32.5% ROI.
Again, it's a small sample, but impressively those lower seed underdogs have covered by an average of 3.59 points per game. Again, these mainstream games have provided some value to contrarian bettors. There's one match so far this weekend, which is a sad one personally as a UNC fan:
- Auburn +5 vs. North Carolina, March 29 at 7:29 p.m. ET
Is this a reverse jinx? Quite possibly.
Good luck this weekend!
