With March Madness finally here, what better time than now to take a look at some of the most important trends that college basketball bettors need to be aware of entering the NCAA Tournament.
These are just some important numbers to keep in mind, both when filling out your brackets and when placing your bets. These aren't rules to follow concretely, but hopefully, they can serve as a guide along your journey to a profitable March.
Without further ado, here are the most important March Madness betting trends to remember for the remainder of the college basketball season.
1. 88% of Final Four teams since 2002 were top-50 in both Adjusted Offensive and Adjusted Defense Efficiency.
This year, that means we're looking at a list of Final Four contenders that includes: UConn, Auburn, BYU, Houston, Duke, Marquette, Wisconsin, Purdue, Tennessee, Gonzaga, Creighton, North Carolina, Arizona, Saint Mary’s, Nebraska, New Mexico, TCU, Nevada and Colorado State.
2. Three teams in the NCAA Tournament are undefeated ATS on neutral courts this season. They are: Mississippi State (9-0), New Mexico (8-0) and UAB (5-0).
All three of these teams would be surprising second weekend teams, but given their propensity to out-perform expectations at neutral venues, they may be worth betting on.
3. Every champion since 1985 has reached at least the semifinals of their conference tourney.
That means teams like BYU, Creighton, Kentucky, Alabama and Duke would be eliminated from national championship contention.
4. Since 2016, the Mountain West is 8-16 ATS in the NCAA Tournament. Double-digit seeds in the Mountain West are now 2-26 all-time SU.
Colorado State got off to a good start in the play-in game vs. the lifeless Virginia offense, but the rest of the Mountain West was also disrespectfully underseeded by the committee. Could this be the year?
5. Early Game Unders: Since 2011, 1 p.m. ET or earlier games are hitting the under 62% (59-36-3).
Looking at you, Michigan State vs. Mississippi State, BYU vs. Duquesne, Northwestern vs. Florida Atlantic and Baylor vs. Colgate. This trend will be put to the test, as BYU, Florida Atlantic and Baylor each have explosive offenses and like to get out and run.
6. 11-seed magic: 11 seeds are the only seed line 10th or higher with a winning percentage above .500 in the Round 64.
Recently, 11 seeds are 15-13 SU since 2016. Duquesne, NC State, New Mexico and Oregon could be in store for some upsets this year.
7. No. 1 seeds are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 if the spread is less than 20.
In the first round this year, all four of our No. 1 seeds are favored by 20+ points. But as the tournament goes on, we'll see if this recent trend holds true.
In the last 10 NCAA Tournaments, first-round favorites of 13.5 points or more have only had one winning ATS season.
In their last 90 games of this nature, they're just 39-50-1 ATS (43.8%). It may be worth backing teams like Colgate (+13.5), Western Kentucky (+14.5), Oakland (+13.5), South Dakota State (+16.5) and Long Beach State (+20.5).
