March Madness Betting Trends: Teams to Fade on 2nd-Half Odds

March Madness Betting Trends: Teams to Fade on 2nd-Half Odds article feature image
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The NCAA Tournament is its own beast. It's an independent event, which means teams can't be ordinarily defined by what happened in the preceding weeks, let alone months.

And while against the spread (ATS) trends during the regular season are relatively fickle, they're an important data point to glean to determine value. From there, you can further deduce the signal from the noise.

For this particular betting trend, three teams have been awful against the second half number.

One team sticks out: the Kentucky Wildcats.

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Kentucky is a historically embarrassing 5-16 against the second-half spread this season.

The second-worst team — Gonzaga (8-17-2 ATS) — is almost four games better. San Diego State is the third-worst team in the country with an 8-17-1 record.

Teams theoretically should be roughly .500 in these markets, assuming a perfect market at equilibrium.

And while Kentucky has been mispriced all year, that doesn't indicate it'll continue come tournament time. Teams in these positions should regress to the mean.

But, given the variance of a one-game sample size, the randomness of a single sporting event and the fact that each game is an independent event, it's best to use this factoid as one more datapoint for your broader thesis.

If you were already bullish about Providence ATS against Kentucky — or Grand Canyon ATS vs. Gonzaga — this may bolster that argument.

The two other worst teams against the second-half spread? Montana State (6-14-1 ATS) and Michigan State (9-16).

Kentucky is about a 1.5-point second-half favorite against Providence, according to FanDuel. The Zags are 7.5-point favorites against Grand Canyon and San Diego State is -2.5 on the 2H line.

About the Author
Avery Yang is an editor at the Action Network who focuses on breaking news across the sports world and betting algorithms that try to predict eventual outcomes. He is also Darren Rovell's editor. Avery is a recent graduate from Northwestern University's Medill School of Journalism. He has written for the Washington Post, the Associated Press, Sports Illustrated, (the old) Deadspin, MLB.com and others.

Follow Avery Yang @avery_yang on Twitter/X.

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.

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