North Carolina wasn’t a particularly popular pick to win the NCAA title before the season began. The Tar Heels were only 30-1, which is hard to imagine as they’ve been terrific all season. They entered the tournament 13-1 to win it all as the top seed in the West and impressed with convincing wins over 16-seed Wagner and 9-seed Michigan State.
The Tar Heels have a tough test against 4-seed Alabama in the Sweet 16, but there are significant trends that will surely make backers happy both straight up and against the spread.
Head coach Hubert Davis is a perfect 8-0 ATS in The Big Dance. He’s only the third coach since seeding began in 1979 to start his career 8-0, joining Andy Enfield (10-1) and Gary Williams (9-0).
For what it’s worth, the Tar Heels played their first two games in North Carolina. They’ve done so in nine tournaments since 1985, and they won the following Sweet 16 game each time.
As such, UNC covering the spread is the most popular pick of the Sweet 16 heading into their showdown with the Crimson Tide Thursday — nearly 90% of the money is on UNC to cover the spread as of Thursday. If the Tar Heels close at 75% or higher for their spread bet percentage, they'd make this list of massive public sides in the Sweet 16 or later.
Biggest Public Sides in Sweet 16 or Later Since 2005
| Team | Matchup (ET) | Year/Result |
|---|---|---|
 | Duke (-4.5) vs. Utah | 2015, Sweet 16 Duke (75%) | Duke, 63-57 |
 | Kentucky (-4) vs. West Virginia | 2010, Elite 8 Kentucky (75%) | WVU, 73-66 |
 | Connecticut (-6.5) vs. Purdue | 2009, Sweet 16 Connecticut (75%) | UConn, 72-60 |
Nonetheless, while the Tar Heels are a popular pick against the spread, history isn’t on their side to make a deep run. UNC is the 12th No. 1 seed to open the season at 30-1 or higher since 2009, and none of them won the whole thing. In fact, only Gonzaga in 2017 managed to even make the Final Four.
Since 1979, UNC is the 23rd No. 1 seed to enter the tournament at 10-1 odds or higher. Only six made it to the Final Four and Duke is the only one to win the title. Additionally, 17 top seeds entered the tournament above 10-1 like the Tar Heels have. Only three made the Final Four (2018 Kansas, 1984 Kentucky, 1997 Minnesota) and none made it to the championship game.
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