We’ve made it through Champ Week and Selection Sunday, and 31 teams punched their ticket to the Big Dance the old-fashioned way — by winning their conference tournament.
Often, teams use their conference tournament as a springboard to launch themselves into an NCAA Tournament run, like UConn last year. Other times, they flail after peaking the week before the Big Dance, like Iowa three years ago.
Here are five conference tournament winners I expect to feast or flop in the coming weeks in my latest March Madness bracket analysis.
Sell: Michigan Wolverines
Big Ten Tournament Champions
Am I buying into Michigan winning an NCAA Tournament game after winning the conference tournament?
Not quite.
Remember when Iowa went scorched earth for a couple of days in the 2022 Big Ten Tournament before losing to Richmond in the first round?
Yeah, this feels like that.
I don't trust Michigan's offense. The Wolverines have shot a woeful 27% from 3 since February 1 and have turned the ball over at a ghastly 20% clip.
Neither are ingredients to win an NCAA Tournament game, especially against a team that can exploit their weaknesses — like UC San Diego, which forces turnovers at the second-highest rate nationally (23%).
Plus, UC San Diego can shoot the lights out. The Tritons attempt 3s on nearly half of their field goal attempts and connect at a 37% rate.
Eric Olen's squad has some star power with 6-foot-6 wing Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones, who won the Big West Player of the Year. He loves driving into the lane and dishing to shooters like Hayden Gray and Ty McGhie.
Broadly, I don't trust Michigan. It's a team that lost three games entering the conference tournament and had a negative point differential during a lengthy winning streak prior.
I just can't see Michigan evading this sensational UCSD team. Fading Michigan feels like the right play.
Sell: Florida Gators
SEC Tournament Champions
Dare I say that we've gone a bit extreme with the Florida love?
I get it. The Gators are easily among the college basketball elite, with the nation's best offense and a top-10 defense.
Florida is America's most profitable high-major team at 26-8 ATS, so it makes sense to back the Gators game-by-game.
Still, I feel like picking Florida to make the Final Four at -115 is too rich.
The Gators are terrific. The best thing about Florida is its elite guard play. But if the Gator guards have an off shooting night, they could quickly be in trouble. It'll need to be flawless in virtually every other area if Walter Clayton Jr. or Alijah Martin have an off night.
To get to the Final Four, Florida might play St John's, Texas Tech, and Memphis on its way to San Antonio. That's a brutal draw for a one seed.
Florida has to face the Johnnies' dominant defense and Texas Tech's equally dominant offense en route.
That just feels too lofty to parlay into a Final Four.
Buy: VCU Rams
Atlantic 10 Tournament Champions
I'll take some stock in VCU, please.
The Rams have the best chance of any double-digit seed to make a run to the second weekend. They sit at +380 to make the Sweet 16, just ahead of UCSD and right behind Gonzaga.
This isn't your typical 11-seed. According to all metrics, VCU is a top-30 team, including KenPom, and it's been playing even better lately. Ryan Odom's squad ranks 18th nationally in Bart Torvik's ratings since February 1.
The Rams are also built for March. They’re a suffocating interior defense (44% 2-point shooting allowed, fourth nationally, per KenPom) that obliterates the offensive glass (37% offensive rebounding rate, 12th nationally, per KenPom).
They can win games in different ways, which is massive in a tournament setting.
Much of their rim dominance can be credited to human eraser Luke Bamgboye, the latest in a long line of defensive VCU bigs.
The path isn’t awful. Beating a smoldering-hot BYU squad and a lengthy Wisconsin team won’t be easy.
But the Rams have the pressure to slow down Cougar point guard Egor Demin while exploiting the team’s turnover issues.
In the Sweet 16, Wisconsin could be in trouble against VCU's dominant defense. But Penn State slowed down the Badgers a few weeks ago with a similar press-happy scheme, as they don’t have a true point guard.
I see VCU capitalizing on its A-10 title with a run in the Big Dance.
Buy: Gonzaga Bulldogs
WCC Tournament Champions
The seeding for Gonzaga was one of the storylines I paid attention to.
If you told me Gonzaga was a five seed, I would have believed it.
Houston got a tough draw. The Zags are a top-10 KenPom squad, and it’s brutal for a one seed to face that caliber of opponent in the Round of 32.
Alas, that’s the situation.
Mark Few is known for offensive-centric teams with shooting and elite bigs. One of those things is still true in 2025.
Graham Ike is one of the top bigs in college hoops, averaging 17 points per game as a total post monster.
But shooting is far from a strength for the Zags, as the Bulldogs have shot 27% from deep since the calendar flipped from February.
I don't foresee Gonzaga shooting that poorly in the Big Dance. With more attention drawn to Ike, Nolan Hickman and Khalif Battle should benefit from clean looks from deep.
Moreover, the Zags rank 12th in defensive efficiency since February 1 while holding teams to 46% shooting.
The path to a run includes beating Houston, which likely has a less-than-100% J'Wan Roberts. That'll be a massive plus for the Zags.
Sell: St. John's Red Storm
Big East Tournament Champions
I touched on the rugged West Region, featuring Florida, St. John's, and Texas Tech.
Since St. John’s ran through the Big East Tournament without a scare, the momentum will be squarely on its side in March Madness
However, can the Johnnies make a deep run with such a limited offense?
I lean towards no.
The Red Storm are among the country’s best defensive teams, ranking in the top-15 nationally in defensive turnover rate (22%, per KenPom).
But the magic should run out eventually.
It’s hard to win in March without shooting, and the Johnnies’ half-court offense is hapless in that area. They shoot too many low-quality mid-range shots and pray they get the offensive rebounds — which, to be fair, they often do, recording a 38% offensive rebounding rate since February 1.
I think they’ll be in trouble if they meet an equally strong rebounding squad like Florida — or perhaps even Arkansas in the Round of 32.
Deivon Smith is the only rotation player shooting above 32% from 3. The two main ball-handlers — RJ Luis Jr. and Kadary Richmond — shoot 32% and 26% from deep, respectively.
Whichever opponent can avoid falling for the Rick Pitino magic (giving the ball away) will send the Red Storm back to Queens and end the fairytale run.
