Editor's Note: This guest post is from PoolGenius, whose expert bracket picks and tools have helped subscribers win over $2.5 million in prizes since 2017.
Whether you're in a small pool looking for a few key edges or a large pool where differentiation is crucial, finding the right balance between safe bracket picks and smart risks is key.
That’s the goal of this article: finding overrated and underrated picks by comparing advancement odds to public pick rates.
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| Optimized Bracket Picks for 2025 |
| Discounts Courtesy of Action Network |
To Make Round of 32 (Win First Round)
These picks use PoolGenius advancement odds and public pick rates from multiple platforms, which may shift as more brackets are submitted.
Overrated: No. 5 Michigan
- Odds to Win: 60.2%
- Public Pick Rate: 75.9%
This is a pool-dependent decision. Michigan is fresh off a Big Ten Tournament win, but it's played close games all season and drew a tough matchup.
If you're in a larger pool or one with upset bonuses, UC San Diego, riding a 15-game win streak, could be worth the risk.
Hidden Gem: No. 11 North Carolina
- Odds to Win: 64.3%
- Public Pick Rate: 35.9%
North Carolina dominated San Diego State in the play-in game and now faces No. 6 Ole Miss, which we have as the weakest rated No. 6 seed in the tournament.
UNC underperformed for most of the year, but the selection committee gave the Tar Heels a second life, and they could take full advantage.
To Make Sweet 16 (Win Round of 32)
Overrated: No. 5 Clemson
- Odds to Win: 33.3%
- Public Pick Rate: 53.1%
The public is hammering Clemson, likely due to its veteran experience and deep run last year.
But key player Dillon Hunter broke his hand in the ACC Tournament, making it a somewhat risky pick to advance to the Sweet 16.
Hidden Gem: No. 7 Kansas
- Odds to Win: 28.9%
- Public Pick Rate: 14.1%
Kansas isn’t a powerhouse this year, but it's still a 4.5- to 5-point favorite over Arkansas, which could be missing top scorer Adou Thiero.
If the Jayhawks get past the Razorbacks, they’ll likely face St. John’s, a winnable matchup (Kansas would likely be a 3.5- to 4-point underdog), and a strong leverage play in large pools.
| Optimized Bracket Picks for 2025 |
| Discounts Courtesy of Action Network |
To Make Elite Eight (Win Sweet 16)
Overrated: No. 2 Alabama
- Odds to Win: 43.9%
- Public Pick Rate: 61.2%
Alabama is talented, but it's highly volatile. The Tide's defense is shaky, and if the shots aren’t falling, they can get knocked out early.
Grant Nelson, a key 6-foot-11 senior, injured his knee in Alabama’s SEC Tournament loss to Florida, and his availability is in question. Taking Saint Mary’s or Wisconsin to eliminate Alabama could be a strong leverage move.
Hidden Gem: No. 4 Maryland
- Odds to Win: 17.1%
- Public Pick Rate: 9.4%
Maryland has strong underlying metrics but terrible luck, losing multiple close games this season.
Advancing this far would likely mean upsetting Florida, but in an extra-large pool, this is the type of pick that can create separation from the field.
To Make Final Four (Win Elite Eight)
Overrated: No. 2 Tennessee
- Odds to Win: 21.6%
- Public Pick Rate: 30.6%
The bottom half of the South Region is relatively weak, which may explain why Tennessee is over-picked.
Many think choosing Tennessee is a contrarian move, but it’s actually more common than their probability of reaching that stage. That doesn’t mean it’s a bad choice, but it doesn’t offer much leverage against the field.
Hidden Gem: No. 3 Texas Tech
- Odds to Win: 13.0%
- Public Pick Rate: 7.8%
Texas Tech isn’t a flashy pick, but it's a sneaky-good team with a real path to a deep run. The Red Raiders' Elite Eight advancement odds are nearly identical to No. 2 seed St. John’s, which, as mentioned earlier, is vulnerable to an early exit.
If Texas Tech makes it that far, it sets up a high-leverage decision against Florida, giving you a chance to gain a significant edge on the field.
To Win National Championship
We're skipping the "Make the National Championship" category since the teams are largely the same. Duke is a solid choice if you want a safer pick, being picked around the same level as its odds indicate.
Overrated: No. 1 Florida
- Odds to Win: 20.3%
- Public Pick Rate: 26.2%
Florida is one of the most over-picked championship selections. Once again, that doesn’t make it a bad selection. It means you’ll need to find leverage elsewhere to differentiate from the field.
In addition, St. John’s and Michigan State are also being taken more often than their actual probability suggests.
Hidden Gem: No. 2 Auburn
- Odds to Win: 12.1%
- Public Pick Rate: 10.1%
Auburn's underrated status is surprising, considering it was ranked No. 1 for much of the year and looked dominant. But because Florida has been surging, Auburn is being overlooked.
This is a strong leverage play, where you get a championship-caliber team without the high pick rate.
Your Secret Weapon in March Madness Pools
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PoolGenius has helped users win $2.5 million in pools since 2017—now it’s your turn.
| Optimized Bracket Picks for 2025 |
| Discounts Courtesy of Action Network |
