March Madness Bracket Predictions: Every Team’s Chances To Advance To Final Four & NCAA Tournament Final

Sean Koerner

Updated:

Mar 16, 2021, 07:57 PM EDT

Download App

March Madness Bracket Predictions: Every Team’s Chances To Advance To Final Four & NCAA Tournament Final article feature image

NCAAB

Credit:

Getty Images

The Action Network's Director of Predictive Analytics Sean Koerner projects every team's chances to advance to each round of the NCAA Tournament.

Note: Round of 64 matchups featuring play-in winners from the First Four are listed twice to reflect the projections for each possible scenario.

March Madness Bracket Predictions

Sort the following table by team name, region, seed and more.

March Madness: Get $4,500+ in Promos NOW

See all MM promos for 10+ books

Bet $20, Win $150 if a team scores

Over $4,500 total for the tourney

CLAIM OFFERS NOW

South Region

#1 Baylor vs. #16 Hartford

Baylor	Round	Hartford
98.7%	of 32	1.3%
70.8%	Sweet 16	0.1%
53.1%	Elite Eight	0%
37.6%	Final Four	0%
22.5%	Finals	0%
12.1%	To Win	0%

#8 UNC vs. #9 Wisconsin

UNC	Round	Wisconsin
42.8%	of 32	57.2%
11%	Sweet 16	18.1%
5.6%	Elite Eight	10.5%
2.5%	Final Four	5.5%
0.9%	Finals	2.3%
0.4%	To Win	0.8%

#5 Villanova vs. #12 Winthrop

Villanova	Round	Winthrop
76.6%	of 32	23.4%
33.5%	Sweet 16	4.7%
8.8%	Elite Eight	0.4%
3.5%	Final Four	0.1%
1.1%	Finals	0%
0.3%	To Win	0%

#4 Purdue vs. #13 North Texas

Purdue	Round	North Texas
83%	of 32	17%
56.3%	Sweet 16	5.5%
21%	Elite Eight	0.6%
11%	Final Four	0.1%
4.5%	Finals	0%
1.6%	To Win	0%

#6 Texas Tech vs. #11 Utah State

Texas Tech	Round	Utah State
60.7%	of 32	39.3%
28.8%	Sweet 16	14.6%
12.3%	Elite Eight	4.8%
4.1%	Final Four	1.2%
1.4%	Finals	0.3%
0.4%	To Win	0.1%

#3 Arkansas vs. #14 Colgate

Arkansas	Round	Colgate
80.6%	of 32	19.4%
50.8%	Sweet 16	5.8%
26.2%	Elite Eight	1.2%
10.9%	Final Four	0.2%
4.5%	Finals	0%
1.6%	To Win	0%

#7 Florida vs. #10 VA Tech

Florida	Round	VA Tech
57.2%	of 32	42.8%
20.2%	Sweet 16	12.5%
9.1%	Elite Eight	4.7%
2.8%	Final Four	1.2%
0.8%	Finals	0.3%
0.2%	To Win	0.1%

#2 Ohio State vs. #15 Oral Roberts

Ohio State	Round	Oral Roberts
94.9%	of 32	5.1%
66.6%	Sweet 16	0.7%
41.5%	Elite Eight	0.1%
19.4%	Final Four	0%
9%	Finals	0%
3.6%	To Win	0%

2021 NCAA Tournament Instant Bracket Reaction & Analysis Read now

East Region

#1 Illinois vs. #16 Drexel

Illinois	Round	Drexel
98%	of 32	2%
77.6%	Sweet 16	0.2%
62.2%	Elite Eight	0%
43.4%	Final Four	0%
27.9%	Finals	0%
15.5%	To Win	0%

#8 Loyola (IL) vs. #9 GA Tech

Loyola (IL)	Round	GA Tech
53.6%	of 32	46.4%
12.5%	Sweet 16	9.6%
6.8%	Elite Eight	4.9%
2.8%	Final Four	1.8%
1%	Finals	0.6%
0.3%	To Win	0.1%

#5 Tennessee vs. #12 Oregon St

Tennessee	Round	Oregon St
76.6%	of 32	23.4%
49.5%	Sweet 16	8.7%
15.7%	Elite Eight	1.1%
7%	Final Four	0.2%
2.7%	Finals	0%
0.8%	To Win	0%

#4 OK State vs. #13 Liberty

OK State	Round	Liberty
76.6%	of 32	23.4%
36.5%	Sweet 16	5.3%
8.9%	Elite Eight	0.5%
3.2%	Final Four	0.1%
1%	Finals	0%
0.2%	To Win	0%

The must-have app for college hoops bettors

Custom scoreboard for your bets

Free picks from experts

Live odds for every game

Download Now

#6 San Diego State vs. #11 Syracuse

San Diego State	Round	Syracuse
60.7%	of 32	39.3%
32.8%	Sweet 16	17.2%
13%	Elite Eight	5.1%
4.5%	Final Four	1.3%
1.7%	Finals	0.4%
0.5%	To Win	0.1%

#3 West Virginia vs. #14 Morehead St

West Virginia	Round	Morehead St
89.8%	of 32	10.2%
48.7%	Sweet 16	1.3%
19.2%	Elite Eight	0.1%
6.7%	Final Four	0%
2.5%	Finals	0%
0.7%	To Win	0%

#7 Clemson vs. #10 Rutgers

Clemson	Round	Rutgers
42.8%	of 32	57.2%
10.8%	Sweet 16	17.8%
4.5%	Elite Eight	8.7%
1.2%	Final Four	2.7%
0.3%	Finals	0.9%
0.1%	To Win	0.2%

#2 Houston vs. #15 Cleveland St

Houston	Round	Cleveland St
96.9%	of 32	3.1%
71%	Sweet 16	0.3%
49.3%	Elite Eight	0%
25.1%	Final Four	0%
13.6%	Finals	0%
6.1%	To Win	0%

NCAA Tournament Printable Bracket With Our Projected Spreads Read now

Midwest Region

#1 Michigan vs. #16 Mount St. Mary's

Michigan	Round	Mount St. Mary's
99.1%	of 32	0.9%
75.2%	Sweet 16	0%
54.7%	Elite Eight	0%
38.6%	Final Four	0%
19.4%	Finals	0%
11%	To Win	0%

#1 Michigan vs. #16 Texas Southern

Michigan	Round	Texas Southern
99.3%	of 32	0.7%
75.4%	Sweet 16	0%
54.8%	Elite Eight	0%
38.7%	Final Four	0%
19.4%	Finals	0%
11%	To Win	0%

#8 LSU vs. #9 St. Bonaventure

LSU	Round	St. Bonaventure
51.8%	of 32	48.2%
13.2%	Sweet 16	11.6%
6.3%	Elite Eight	5.3%
2.8%	Final Four	2.3%
0.7%	Finals	0.6%
0.2%	To Win	0.2%

#5 Colorado vs. #12 Georgetown

Colorado	Round	Georgetown
70.7%	of 32	29.3%
36.5%	Sweet 16	9.3%
12.5%	Elite Eight	1.7%
6.1%	Final Four	0.5%
1.8%	Finals	0.1%
0.6%	To Win	0%

#4 Florida St vs. #13 UNC Greensboro

Florida St	Round	UNC Greensboro
86.2%	of 32	13.8%
51.3%	Sweet 16	2.9%
19.3%	Elite Eight	0.3%
10%	Final Four	0%
3.2%	Finals	0%
1.2%	To Win	0%

#6 BYU vs. #11 UCLA

BYU	Round	UCLA
57.2%	of 32	42.8%
26.9%	Sweet 16	17.3%
10.4%	Elite Eight	5.5%
3.3%	Final Four	1.4%
0.8%	Finals	0.3%
0.2%	To Win	0.1%

#6 BYU vs. #11 Michigan St

BYU	Round	Michigan St
59%	of 32	41%
27.8%	Sweet 16	15.9%
10.7%	Elite Eight	4.8%
3.4%	Final Four	1.2%
0.8%	Finals	0.2%
0.2%	To Win	0%

#3 Texas vs. #14 Ab Christian

Texas	Round	Ab Christian
83%	of 32	17%
51.4%	Sweet 16	4.4%
24.4%	Elite Eight	0.7%
9.7%	Final Four	0.1%
3%	Finals	0%
1.1%	To Win	0%

#7 UConn vs. #10 Maryland

UConn	Round	Maryland
53.6%	of 32	46.4%
23.3%	Sweet 16	18.6%
12.8%	Elite Eight	9.5%
4.9%	Final Four	3.3%
1.4%	Finals	0.9%
0.5%	To Win	0.3%

#2 Alabama vs. #15 Iona

Alabama	Round	Iona
95.4%	of 32	4.6%
57.8%	Sweet 16	0.4%
36.7%	Elite Eight	0%
17.1%	Final Four	0%
6.3%	Finals	0%
2.7%	To Win	0%

West Region

#1 Gonzaga vs. #16 App State/Norfolk State

Gonzaga	Round	App State/Norfolk State
99.6%	of 32	0.4%
88%	Sweet 16	0%
72%	Elite Eight	0%
51.4%	Final Four	0%
37%	Finals	0%
24.7%	To Win	0%

#1 Gonzaga vs. #16 Norfolk State

Gonzaga	Round	Norfolk State
99.6%	of 32	0.4%
88.1%	Sweet 16	0%
72%	Elite Eight	0%
51.5%	Final Four	0%
37%	Finals	0%
24.7%	To Win	0%

#8 Oklahoma vs. #9 Missouri

Oklahoma	Round	Missouri
55.4%	of 32	44.6%
7.3%	Sweet 16	4.7%
3.1%	Elite Eight	1.7%
0.9%	Final Four	0.5%
0.3%	Finals	0.1%
0.1%	To Win	0%

#5 Creighton vs. #12 UCSB

Creighton	Round	UCSB
78%	of 32	22%
45.1%	Sweet 16	6.5%
11.7%	Elite Eight	0.6%
4.9%	Final Four	0.1%
2%	Finals	0%
0.7%	To Win	0%

#4 Virginia vs. #13 Ohio

Virginia	Round	Ohio
78%	of 32	22%
42.5%	Sweet 16	5.9%
10.4%	Elite Eight	0.5%
4.2%	Final Four	0.1%
1.7%	Finals	0%
0.6%	To Win	0%

#6 USC vs. #11 Wichita State

USC	Round	Wichita State
70.7%	of 32	29.3%
34.8%	Sweet 16	8.7%
11.7%	Elite Eight	1.5%
3%	Final Four	0.2%
1.1%	Finals	0%
0.4%	To Win	0%

#6 USC vs. #11 Drake

USC	Round	Drake
73.8%	of 32	26.2%
36.3%	Sweet 16	7.1%
12.2%	Elite Eight	1.1%
3.2%	Final Four	0.1%
1.2%	Finals	0%
0.4%	To Win	0%

#3 Kansas vs. #14 Eastern Wash

Kansas	Round	Eastern Wash
89%	of 32	11%
54.5%	Sweet 16	2%
20.9%	Elite Eight	0.2%
6.3%	Final Four	0%
2.6%	Finals	0%
1%	To Win	0%

#7 Oregon vs. #10 VCU

Oregon	Round	VCU
62.5%	of 32	37.5%
17.1%	Sweet 16	6.9%
8.2%	Elite Eight	2.5%
2%	Final Four	0.4%
0.7%	Finals	0.1%
0.2%	To Win	0%

#2 Iowa vs. #15 Grand Canyon

Iowa	Round	Grand Canyon
95.8%	of 32	4.2%
75.3%	Sweet 16	0.8%
54.9%	Elite Eight	0.1%
26%	Final Four	0%
15.8%	Finals	0%
8.7%	To Win	0%

Follow Sean Koerner

Verified Action Expert

Download App

About the Author

Sean is The Action Network's Director of Predictive Analytics. He was named the No. 1 fantasy football draft ranker of 2019 by FantasyPros, where he's also finished as the top in-season ranker in three of the past five seasons

Follow Sean Koerner @The_Oddsmaker on Twitter/X.

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.