Since 2004, all but two champions have fulfilled these three advanced metric criteria — with the only two exceptions being the Jim Calhoun-led UConn Huskies.
This is courtesy of my colleague Ryan Collinsworth, who developed this dataset.
Teams with the following metrics have won each identifiable NCAA men's college basketball championship. The data below is according to Ken Pomeroy.
- Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (AdjO) of 113.9 or higher.
- Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (AdjD) of 96.2 or lower.
- Adjusted Efficiency Margin (AdjEM) of 23.83 or higher.
This season, eight teams fit those metrics. The following teams are listed in order of highest to lowest, according to Adjusted Efficiency Margin.
- UConn
- Houston
- Purdue
- Auburn
- Iowa State
- Arizona
- Tennessee
- North Carolina
The highest ranked team to not make this list? Duke, which clocks in as the No. 9 best team, according to KenPom. The Blue Devils aren't a part of this list on account of their 97.0 adjusted defense, which is 0.8 of a point too high for this historic metric.
The following are the best market prices as of Sunday night for each future on each of the aforementioned teams.
- UConn (DraftKings, +450)
- Houston (FanDuel, +600)
- Purdue (Caesars, +750)
- Auburn (FanDuel, +2200)
- Iowa State (FanDuel, +2000)
- Arizona (BetRivers, +1400)
- Tennessee (FanDuel, +1700)
- North Carolina (FanDuel, +1700)
Only the 2011 and 2014 Huskies — with the 2014 team a notable exception, having been a non-qualifying team before winning the Big East Tournament — bucked this trend.
Personally, we'll be betting every single one of these markets. Do keep in mind that if the market goes chalk — with UConn or Houston winning it all — you'd lose a small amount. But, of course, if one of the other five teams wins, you'd win a handsome amount of units.
Out of these eight teams UConn, Iowa State and Auburn share a side in the bracket. Houston stands alone. Purdue and Tennessee are in the same region. And North Carolina and Arizona share a region, too.
