March Madness Final Four Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer
No. 1 Auburn, Florida, Duke and Houston — for just the second time ever (first in 2008) we have four No. 1 seeds in the Final Four — and that Final Four in 2008 was also in San Antonio. The best of the best have mainly made it through to the final weekend of the year.
We're here to answer tourney questions, dish out stats and facts, talk futures, the bracket, coaches, cinderella, and more. Welcome to the March Madness Final Four edition of Action Network's betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Monday, March 31, at 12 p.m. ET.
Chalk Full
Favorites Strike Back
Chalk has mostly survived both in the bracket world and in the betting world for the entirety of March Madness…
- Favorites of 8 points or more finished 21-0 SU in the NCAA Tournament — tied for the 2nd-most SU wins without a loss for 8+ pt favorites in history behind 22-0 SU mark in 2007.
- Favorites of 6 points or more are 32-2 SU and 22-12 ATS in the NCAA Tournament — the 3rd-best SU win pct for any NCAA Tournament in the seeding era (2019, 1985). If you include the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East and SEC Tournaments, these 6+ pt favorites are 62-3 SU this year.
- For the first time in history, favorites went 12-0 SU in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8. Overall, favorites have won 14 straight tourney games outright dating back to Iowa State's loss to Ole Miss in the Round of 32 on the night of March 23rd.
- In Round 64 through Elite 8, underdogs won 12 total games outright (T-fewest in the seeding era).
All Chalk
Odds to Win National Championship Entering NCAA Tournament:
Duke: +325
Florida: +325
Auburn: +425
Houston: +600
If you add up the four final teams' national title odds entering the dance, they would add up to +1675, the lowest combined mark in the seeding era since 1979. The 2nd-lowest? Back in 2001 between Maryland, Duke, Arizona and Michigan State — for a combined +2150.
Cover Town
ATS records for all four teams this season:
Florida: 27-11 ATS (34-4 SU)
Duke: 25-13 ATS (35-3 SU)
Auburn: 21-16 ATS (32-5 SU)
Houston: 21-17 ATS (34-4 SU)
If Florida wins it all and goes 2-0 ATS in the Final Four, it would finish 29-11 ATS (72.5%). That would be the highest ATS win percentage for a national champion over the last 30 years.
2024 Connecticut 28-12 ATS (70%)
2018 Villanova 28-12 ATS (70%)
2023 Connecticut 27-12 ATS (69.2%)
2019 Virginia 24-12 ATS (66.7%)
History Unkind
Gators vs. World
A long shot to the Final Four? Sort of. Florida entered the regular season at 60-1 odds to win it all and was awarded a one-seed. Since 2009, we’ve had 12 teams listed at 30-1 or higher in the preseason that ended up with a No. 1 seed. Three have now made the Final Four: 2025 Florida, Gonzaga in 2017, and Minnesota in 1997. None have won it all.
Florida opened the tournament by beating Norfolk State but not covering. Then, they beat UConn but couldn't cover the lofty 9-point spread. The only team since 1985 to start an NCAA Tournament 0-2 ATS and go on to win it all was Arizona in 1997.
The Gators are just the second team to enter a Final Four 1-3 ATS or worse since 2000, joining 2015 Kentucky who was undefeated SU entering the Final Four and lost to Wisconsin. Of the 8 teams to enter the Final Four 1-3 ATS or worse, one won the title — 1999 Connecticut.
High Totals
Final Site
The Florida-Auburn over/under opened at 161.5 and has come down to 160.5. Since 1985, we've had 15 totals of 160+ in the Final Four and National Championship and the under is 10-5 in those games. If it closes at 161.5 or higher, it would be the highest total this late in the tourney since Kansas-Maryland semifinal back in 2002.
All About Experience
How does coaching experience — specifically Final Four experience — impact results? Both Kelvin Sampson and Bruce Pearl have Final Four experience.
Kelvin Sampson: 3rd
Bruce Pearl: 2nd
Jon Scheyer: 1st
Todd Golden: 1st
- In NCAA Tournament history, the coach with more Final Four experience is 119-69 SU in the Final Four and national championship game. In just the Final Four, they are 75-46 SU.
- Since 1978 (start of seeding), the experienced Final Four coach is 70-44 SU and 61-52-1 ATS in the Final Four and national championship game. In just the Final Four, they are 43-31 SU and 38-35-1 ATS.
- We've seen 73 head coaches enter a National Semifinal and Title Game with a 2+ Final Four appearance advantage against their opponent — like Sampson vs. Scheyer. Those coaches are 47-26 SU and 38-33-2 ATS. Of those 73 coaches, 16 were listed as an underdog. They went 6-10 SU and 10-6 ATS.
- Looking specifically at coaches with a 2+ Final Four advantage, where opposing coach is in his first trip. The experienced coach is 30-16 SU and 20-24-2 ATS. Only 8 of those teams were listed as underdogs, they went 3-5 SU and 4-4 ATS.
Here were the only two above a 3-pt dog:
1988 Kansas +8 vs Oklahoma
Larry Brown (3) vs. Billy Tubbs (1)
KU won, 83-79
1982 Louisville +4.5 vs. Georgetown
Denny Crum (4) vs. John Thompson (1)
GT won, 50-46
Quiet on the Western Front
Another Year Down
Since Arizona won the national title in 1997, no team west of Texas has won it all — and that trend continued this year with Duke, Florida, Auburn and Houston now in the Final Four.
Reversal of Fortune
Have A Lead, Hold A Lead?
Teams who lead at the half in the NCAA Tournament went 25-38 against the second half spread in this year's NCAA Tournament entering the Final Four. That 25-38 2H ATS mark is the 2nd-worst for any tourney in the last 15 years.
It is crazy, especially when you consider this: Teams that led at the half in the NCAA Tournament were above .500 against the second-half spread in six consecutive tournaments dating back to 2018, going 220-160-5 (58%) against the second-half spread in that span entering this year.
Home Sweet Home
Final Four in Texas
Houston will be the 9th team last 60 years to play a Final Four game in their home state. The last to do so was Butler back in 2010 and only Michigan State in 2009 has done it as well dating back to Duke in 1994.
7 of the 8 previous teams won their Final Four game (1980 Purdue lost), but the last to win it all was UCLA in 1975. Of the previous 8 teams, Houston will be the 3rd to play the Final Four game as an underdog and both won outright:
2009 Michigan State (+4.5)
1974 NC State (+3.5)
Out of Nowhere
Izzo and The Storm
In the 64-team era, there have been 39 teams to enter the tournament as a 1- or 2-seed that weren't ranked in the preseason AP poll. They have combined for zero Final Fours, averaging fewer than two wins per tournament. (via Ken Pom)
Since 2018, only this year's Michigan State team advanced past the Sweet 16:
2025: St. John's (R32), Michigan St (E8)
2024: Iowa State (S16)
2023: Purdue (R64), Marquette (R32)
2022: Arizona (S16)
2021: Alabama (S16)
2018: Virginia (R64)
March Madness 2025
Futures | Matchups | Bet Labs | Trends |
Final Four
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Future Markets & Notes
Here's a look at the BetMGM futures market, from opening to current lines to win it all:
What are the highest odds to win the title entering the NCAA Tournament since seeding began in 1978? Only four teams listed above 20-1 entering March Madness have won the title in that same time frame — and that trend stayed true this year.
Since UConn in 2014, every eventual champion has been under 20-1 entering the tournament. In 2025, that was Duke, Florida, Auburn, Houston, Alabama and Tennessee.
2014 Connecticut
100-1 pre-tournament
1985 Villanova
35-1 pre-tournament
2011 Connecticut
25-1 pre-tournament
1983 NC State
25-1 pre-tournament
Entering the Sweet 16, momentum historically had been key — but how much does that show up in the odds board?
In the last 20 years of March Madness, we’ve only seen TWO teams win the title after having above 10-1 odds to win it all entering the Sweet 16…
Villanova in 2016 at 11-1 odds…
UConn in 2014 at 28-1 odds…
Every other champ had 10-1 odds or shorter entering this round. This trend extended another year this season, as all four were under 10-1.
After flip-flopping, Duke and Florida were tied atop the odds board entering the NCAA Tournament at +325. How have pre-tournament favorites performed in March Madness recently? The pre-tournament favorite has gone on to win it all ten times since 2000, including last year by UConn.
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Odds-On Favorites
Duke's Other Journey
Duke is now -110 to win the title entering the Final Four — an odds-on favorite vs. the rest of the field.
- This is the third straight season we've had an odds-on favorite to win the title entering the Final Four — UConn ended up winning both titles.
- Duke is the 17th team to be an odds-on favorite entering the Final Four and seven ended up winning the title and cutting down the nets and only four lost in the semifinal game before the championship.
- History says Duke or Florida will win it all. Top-two title odds favorites entering Final Four have won it all in 19 of the past 20 tournaments ('14 UConn).
- Only once in those previous sixteen years with an odds-on favorite entering the Final Four did the longshot left in the field — team with the worst odds go on to win it all — in 2014, Florida was odds-on and UConn won the title.
If Duke cuts down the nets, this would be the first time since the tournament expanded in 1985 we had three straight years of an odds-on favorite entering the Final Four and all three ended up winning.
Between 2012-16, it happened all five years and only two titles were won.
Between 1991-93, it happened three straight years and only Duke in 1992 won.
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Florida has only been a one-seed three times in school history, and they have now made the Final Four in all three occasions — also going in 2007 and 2014.
Florida is now 1-3 ATS in this year's NCAA Tournament and coach Todd Golden is 1-4 ATS in his tournament career. The Gators started off March Madness not covering the spread in both the Round of 64 and Round of 32. Since the tournament expanded in 1985, only Arizona in 1997 won it all after starting the tournament 0-2 ATS.
Entering the NCAA Tournament, Florida had gone 12-1 ATS in their previous 13 games. Prior to the Round of 32, Florida hadn't lost consecutive ATS since November 11th this year.
Florida enters the Final Four after having 60-1 odds to win it all entering the regular season. The only match for a 1 seed with that high of odds to make the Final Four would be Gonzaga at 66-1 in 2017.
February 22nd — that is the last game Florida went under the full game total. The over has cashed in 11 straight Florida games, going over the total by an average of 9.2 PPG. In the last 20 year's of the NCAA Tournament, only three teams have had an 11-game over or under streak entering any NCAA Tournament game, with 2007 USC's 13-game over streak being the only other 11-game over streak in that span.
2007 USC (13 over)
2023 San Diego State (12 under)
2025 Florida (11 over)
Win Another
Florida Won The First
This is the 12th time since 1976 that two teams from the same conference will face off in the Final Four or Title game.
Florida beat Auburn 90-81 on the road as a 10.5-pt underdog back in early February.
Overall, favorites in the FF or NC are 6-4 SU/ATS (1 PIK).
The team with the SU advantage during the season (like Florida), also went 6-4 SU in the more important rematch.
Auburn had lost 3 of their last 4 games outright entering the NCAA Tournament and now they are in the Final Four. They would become the first team in history to enter the dance on that type of losing streak and cut down the nets.
This is Bruce Pearl’s second trip to the Final Four. Pearl has coached 34 NCAA Tournament games, and he is pretty consistent. Pearl has coached 21 games on extended prep time — Round 64, Sweet 16, Final 4 — and is 13-8 SU. On short rest — Round 32, Elite 8 — he is 8-5 SU.
This year, Auburn has only played one conference game as an underdog — back in February against Alabama, they closed +1.5 and won, 94-85 on the road. Last year, they had two games as dogs vs. SEC and lost them both SU and ATS.
This will be Pearl's 13th NCAA Tournament game as an underdog, he is a respectable 5-7 SU and 8-4 ATS, but just 3-6 SU when that game is played on extended rest rounds — Round 64, Sweet 16, Final 4.
Auburn managed to start strong in the Elite 8, maybe that is because it came against Michigan State, who ended their run 0-4 1H ATS and 4-13 1H ATS last 17 games, or they could have found something. Overall, Auburn has had struggles early in games. They are 1-7 1H ATS in their last eight games, including 4-11 1H ATS in their last 15 games overall since early February.
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In 2022 and 2023, Kelvin Sampson and Houston had 1 seeds and lost in the Sweet 16. In 2024, they were awarded a 1 seed and are now in the Final Four. Sampson joins Jay Wright, Ray Meyer, Tony Bennett and Roy Williams as the only coaches to not make a Final Four in their first three tries as a 1-seed and then have a shot at a 4th. Meyer (never made it back) and Roy (won in his 5th try) didn't make it to the Final Four, while Bennett and Wright won titles in that 4th try.
For Sampson, the issues came later in the tournament. Since 2005, he is 11-7 ATS in the Round of 64 and 32, and 3-7 ATS in the Sweet 16 or later. This will be Sampson's third trip to the Final Four, one with Houston and one with Oklahoma, losing both SU and ATS in both trips (0-2 SU/ATS).
If Houston loses, Sampson would join Eddie Sutton and Lute Olsen for the only coaches to start 0-3 SU in the National Semifinal since the mid-70's (they both went 0-3 ATS, too).
The Cougars have only played six games as an underdog dating back to the start of the 2020 season. They are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in those games, covering the spread by 8.4 PPG.
Houston has had tremendous trouble in the second halves this season. They are 12-24 against the second half spread, of 300 teams in the Bet Labs database for CBB this year, they rank 298th in 2H ATS. Against non-conference opponents this season, they are 3-10 2H ATS.
Houston has downright been dominant this year. One regulation loss (Nov. 9 vs. Auburn), they are currently on a 17-game SU win streak, they have just one total loss since December 1st and their defense has held 23 teams to 60 pts or less and Cougars are 23-0 SU in those games and 32-0 SU when holding opponents to 70 pts or fewer.
True Blue Devil
Duke is the favorite and very much alive in this year’s tournament. But, if they were to lose to Houston, it could be a bad omen for the Cougars.
Teams love to beat Duke, but what they do after beating Duke sometimes is the question. Since 2012, teams are 2-8 SU and ATS the round after beating Duke in the tournament. They're also 3-11 SU in the past 16 years.
Duke has received a 1 seed 15 times and they have never lost in the first weekend of the tournament. In 8 of the 15 tournaments, they made the Final Four. In their history, Duke’s entered the tournament under 4-1 odds five times — six if you include this year. Saturday they go for their 4th title game appearance in those seasons.
Jon Scheyer starts his Duke career 7-3 ATS in the tourney as head coach, covering the spread by 5.8 PPG. Duke has been especially good in the first half under their new head coach. In the NCAA Tournament, Duke is 8-2 against the first half spread, including 4-0 1H ATS in the 2025 dance.
Under Scheyer, Duke has faced 42 total non-conference opponents, and they are 35-7 SU and 27-15 ATS. When the spread is -6 or shorter for Duke, they are just 9-7 SU/ATS in those games.
Duke has been incredibly hard to beat when leading. The Blue Devils are 81-1 SU under Scheyer when leading by 10+ pts any point (over 70% ATS), including 81-6 SU when leading at the half.
Duke is good no matter when. They are 23-12 against the first half spread and 22-12 against the second half spread this season. Duke is 4-0 1H ATS in this year's NCAA Tournament and they are 10-2 2H ATS in their last 12 games dating back to the regular season.
In terms of non-conference opponents, Duke is 25-4 SU and 20-9 ATS over the last two seasons vs. teams outside the ACC. Houston is just as good, going 27-4 SU vs. teams outside their conference in that span.
Overall, Duke has been a juggernaut most of the year. They have 22 wins of 20+ points this season, 2nd-most of a division one team since 2000. The only team with more was 2016-17 Gonzaga with 23. The only Duke team with more in history was the 1998-99 team with 24.
List Hunting
Duke's Quest
During the regular season, Duke went 28-3 and outscored their opponents by 685 points, the 10th-best mark all-time.
Of the 9 teams above Duke on that regular season list…
All 9 teams made Elite 8
6 made the Final Four
5 made Title Game
2 won it all — 1968 UCLA, 1972 UCLA
Entering Final Four, Duke has outscored their opponents by 94 pts, which is tied for 10th all-time as well. Here is how the previous ten teams fared.
6 made Title Game
3 won it all — 1963 Loyola (IL), 1996 Kentucky, 2024 UConn
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Bet Labs Systems
This system looks to bet against good ATS teams this season, especially when the good ATS team is also the public side.
Current match: Auburn, Houston
Free-throw shooting in the tournament is key. This system targets the better shooting teams vs. the teams shooting under 75%. In this year's tournament, these teams are 15-8 ATS.
Current matches: Duke
Let's take a look at some NCAA Tournament systems. Click each system for matches, bets, and detailed profitability charts.
Teams later in the tournament who are on a good defensive stretch have been profitable as underdogs.
Current match: Houston
Over! Look Under.
When two teams that are both over .500 to the over during their season entering the NCAA Tournament meet, the total being inflated and the under hitting has been a good strategy.
Current matches: Florida-Auburn
Check the markets on this one, but this is a system that looks at first half unders when the public is loving the over.
Current matches: Duke-Houston
Slow It Down
The Final Four is in San Antonio, Texas at the Alamodome this year. The venue hosted also in 1998, 2004, 2008, 2018 and now again in 2025.
In those 12 Final Four games played in the Alamodome, the totals went an even 6-6, going over the totals by an average of 3 PPG. The average total sat around 143 points, with a little above 146 points scored on average.
Pay attention to second half unders late in the NCAA Tournament.
In the national championship game since 2011, the second half under is 10-3, going under the total by 3.5 PPG and one of the three losses was the Virginia-Texas Tech overtime game.
In the Final Four and title game, the second half under is 26-13 and in the Elite 8 or later, the 2nd half under is 62-33 (65%) since 2011.
Down To Earth
In the Bet Labs database, which dates back to 2005, the public (51% of spread tickets or more) is 28-28-1 ATS in the Final Four and National Championship game — dead even.
In this year's tournament, the public is 26-36 ATS, which would be the worst year since the 2016-17 NCAA Tournament for the public betting spreads.
When looking at the biggest public sides in just the Final Four and National Title game, they are 0-3 SU and ATS in the Final Four. No team has closed with even 62% of the tickets or higher since 2008.
Biggest Public Sides in Final Four Since 2005
| Team | Matchup (ET) | Year/Result |
|---|---|---|
| UNC (-2.5) vs. Kansas | 2008, Final Four UNC (70%) | Kansas, 84-66 |
 | Memphis (-1.5) vs. Kansas | 2008, Title Game Memphis (65%) | Kansas, 75-68 |
 | LSU (-1.5) vs. UCLA | 2006, Final Four LSU (63%) | UCLA, 59-45 |
