Florida and Houston. We are down to two for the National Championship after an unreal comeback in the Final Four. The NCAA Tournament has been a spectacle full of memorable moments. Let's finish strong.
Welcome to the March Madness National Championship edition of Action Network's betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Sunday, April 6 at 12 p.m. ET.
The Reign Is Over
Houston Ends Streak
Houston outscored Duke, 25-8, over the final eight minutes to come back from 14 points against the Blue Devils and make the title game, breaking the favorites streak.
- For the first time in history, favorites went 12-0 SU in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight. Overall, favorites had won 15 straight tourney games outright dating back to Iowa State's loss to Ole Miss in the Round of 32 on the night of March 23 prior to Houston's upset of Duke.
- Favorites of 8 points or more finished 21-0 SU in the NCAA Tournament — tied for the second-most SU wins without a loss for 8-plus point favorites in history behind 22-0 SU mark in 2007.
- Favorites of 6 points or more finished 32-2 SU and 22-12 ATS in the NCAA Tournament — the third-best SU win percentage for any NCAA Tournament in the seeding era (2019, 1985). If you include the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East and SEC Tournaments, these 6-plus point favorites finished 62-3 SU this year.
Overall, favorites in the National Championship game are 41-13 straight up and 32-22 against the spread dating back to 1970. Florida is an early 1.5-point favorite vs. Houston.
All Chalk
Odds to Win National Championship Entering NCAA Tournament:
- Florida: +325
- Houston: +600
If you add up Florida and Houston's national title odds entering the dance, they would add up to +925, the fifth-lowest combined mark in the seeding era since 1979 for the two title game participants.
The lowest? Back in 1999 between UConn and Duke — for a combined +560.
It's also been a chalk Final Four. If you added up the four final teams' national title odds entering the dance, they would add up to +1675, the lowest combined mark in the seeding era since 1979.
Comeback Kids
The ultimate comeback. Florida-Houston is the first National Championship game between teams who trailed at the half of their Final Four games since 1992, when Michigan trailed 41-38 vs. Cincinnati and won, and Duke trailed 42-37 vs. Indiana and won, too.
Houston's comeback of 14 pts is the 3rd-largest in a semifinal, joining 1989 Seton Hall who was also +4.5 and came back down 18 pts also vs. Duke. Seton Hall was +2.5 in title game and lost by one to Michigan. The other comeback was in 2001 when Duke came back vs. Maryland down 22. Duke covered -4.5 vs. Maryland and then covered -3.5 vs. Arizona in title game.
Florida is an early 1.5-point favorite over Houston in the National Championship. Ignore the number. We've seen 26 national title games in the last 60 years with a spread of 2 points or less, and favorites have won/covered 13, while 'dogs have won/covered 13.
Houston came back from 14 down, Florida from nine down. When a team comes back from a 10-plus point deficit in the NCAA Tournament, with a short turnaround — Round 32, Elite Eight, title game — they are 16-27 SU over the last decade.
Cover Town
ATS records for both teams this season:
- Florida: 28-11 ATS (35-4 SU)
- Houston: 22-17 ATS (35-4 SU)
If Florida wins it all and covers against Houston, it would finish 29-11 ATS (72.5%). That would be the highest ATS win percentage for a national champion over the last 30 years.
- 2024 Connecticut: 28-12 ATS (70%)
- 2018 Villanova: 28-12 ATS (70%)
- 2023 Connecticut: 27-12 ATS (69.2%)
- 2019 Virginia: 24-12 ATS (66.7%)
Back and Forth
Final Four in Texas
How have both teams performed in unfamiliar, nonconference games?
Florida is 17-0 SU and 11-6 ATS vs. teams outside of the SEC this year, including 27-4 SU and 17-14 ATS over the last two seasons. Houston has been pretty good at 13-3 SU and 9-7 ATS (67-10 SU, 44-30-3 ATS since 2020).
Let's look at how these teams have performed at the half.
This year, Florida is 28-0 SU (23-5 ATS) when leading at the half, including 59-9 SU and 47-21 ATS under Todd Golden. When the Gators trail, they're 6-4 SU this year and 11-8 SU over the last two seasons, including the win over Auburn on Saturday.
Houston has been a bit different, going 28-3 SU and 18-13 ATS when leading at the half. Its three losses SU are the most for a Cougars team since 2019. When they trail at the half, they're now 7-1 SU and 4-4 ATS this season after beating Duke — the 7-1 SU mark is the best in the country.
Home Sweet Home
Final Four in Texas
Houston was the ninth team in the last 60 years to play a Final Four game in its home state. The last to do so was Butler back in 2010 and only Michigan State in 2009 has done it as well, dating back to Duke in 1994.
With Houston's unreal comeback, eight of the nine previous teams won their Final Four game (1980 Purdue lost), but the last to win it all was UCLA in 1975, which Houston looks to match on Monday.
Of the nine teams in their home state, Houston was the third to play the Final Four game as an underdog, and all three won outright. 1974 NC State won it all, and 2009 Michigan State lost in the title game.
History Unkind
Gators vs. World
A long shot to the Final Four? Sort of.
Florida entered the regular season at 60-1 odds to win it all and was awarded a 1-seed. Since 2009, we’ve had 12 teams listed at 30-1 or higher in the preseason that ended up with a No. 1 seed. Three have now made the Final Four: 2025 Florida, Gonzaga in 2017, and Minnesota in 1997. None have won it all.
Florida opened the tournament by beating Norfolk State but not covering. Then, it beat UConn but couldn't cover the lofty 9-point spread. The only team since 1985 to start an NCAA Tournament 0-2 ATS and go on to win it all was Arizona in 1997.
The Gators were just the second team to enter a Final Four 1-3 ATS or worse since 2000, joining 2015 Kentucky, which was undefeated SU entering the Final Four and lost to Wisconsin. Of the eight teams to enter the Final Four 1-3 ATS or worse, one won the title — 1999 Connecticut.
Houston's Path
Not Easy
Houston has beat a 16 seed, an 8 seed, a 4 seed, a 2 seed and a 1 seed enroute to the title game. They now face 1-seed Florida. No 1 seed since the tournament expanded in 1985 have faced combined seeds of 32 or less on their way to cutting down the nets.
Three teams have come closest: 1993 UNC (33), 2017 UNC (34) and 2009 UNC (35) … all three North Carolina titles.
Houston's opponent seeding mark of 32 is the 4th-lowest for any team since 1985: 1985 Villanova (20), 2014 UConn (28) and 2016 Villanova (29).
Reversal of Fortune
Have A Lead, Hold A Lead?
Teams that lead at the half in the NCAA Tournament went 25-40 against the second-half spread in this year's NCAA Tournament entering the National Championship game. That 25-40 2H ATS mark is the worst for any tourney in the last 15 years with one game to go.
In the Round of 32 or later in this year's tournament, teams that lead at the half are 9-20 against the second-half spread.
It's crazy, especially when you consider this: Teams that led at the half in the NCAA Tournament were above .500 against the second-half spread in six consecutive tournaments dating back to 2018, going 220-160-5 (58%) against the second-half spread in that span entering this year.
All Blue
Duke is Gone
Duke was the favorite and was very much alive in this year’s tournament to win it all — but that dream ended against Houston.
Teams love to beat Duke, but what they do after beating the Blue Devils is the question. Since 2012, teams are 2-8 SU and ATS the round after beating Duke in the tournament. They're also 3-11 SU in the past 16 years.
Duke, the odds-on favorite to win the NCAA Tournament entering the Final Four, has been knocked out in the semifinal. It become the fifth odds-on favorite entering the Final Four to not even make the title game, joining 2015 Kentucky, 2014 Florida, 1993 Kentucky and 1991 UNLV.
History says Duke or Florida will win it all. Top-two title odds favorites entering Final Four have won it all in 19 of the past 20 tournaments ('14 UConn).
Florida Still Here
One Favorite Left
After flip-flopping, Duke and Florida were tied atop the odds board entering the NCAA Tournament at +325.
How have pre-tournament favorites performed in March Madness recently? The pre-tournament favorite has gone on to win it all 10 times since 2000, including UConn last year, and now Florida has that opportunity on Monday.
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All About Experience
How does coaching experience — specifically Final Four experience — help? Kelvin Sampson is in his third Final Four, while Todd Golden his first.
- In NCAA Tournament history, the coach with more Final Four experience is 120-70 SU in the Final Four and national title game.
- Since 1978 (start of seeding), the experienced Final Four coach with more experience is 71-45 SU and 62-53-1 ATS in the Final Four and national title game.
- We've seen 74 head coaches enter a national semifinal and title game with a two-plus Final Four appearance advantage against their opponent — like Sampson vs. Golden. Those coaches are 48-26 SU and 39-33-2 ATS. Of those 74 coaches, 17 were listed as an underdog. They went 7-10 SU and 11-6 ATS.
- Looking specifically at coaches with a two-plus Final Four advantage, where opposing coach is in his first trip, the experienced coach is 31-16 SU and 21-24-2 ATS. Only nine of those teams were listed as underdogs, and they went 4-5 SU and 5-4 ATS.
Streak Broken
Florida Goes Under
Florida beat Auburn, 79-73, to make it to the National Championship, going under the closing total of 158.5. It was the Gators' first game under the total since Feb. 22. They had gone over in 11 straight games prior.
In the last 20 years of the NCAA Tournament, only three teams have had an 11-game over or under streak entering any NCAA Tournament game, with 2007 USC's 13-game over streak being the only other 11-game over streak in that span.
Since Jan. 1, Florida has played five nonconference games, and they have all gone over the total.
Under The Mark
Including the 1.5-point spread in the title game, Houston has been favored by a combined just 39 points, including the NCAA Championship — Since 1990, only champions have had a mark that low (average spread in NCAA Tournament listed).
- 2023 UConn, -32
- 2016 Villanova, -26
- 2014 UConn, +13.5
- 2011 UConn, -15.5
- 2006 Florida, -24
- 2003 Syracuse, -4
- 1997 Arizona, +3.5
- 1991 Duke, -35
Back Stronger
Out to Champion
In last year's NCAA Tournament, Florida was knocked out in the Round of 64 by Colorado in a thriller, and now it's in the National Championship with a chance for true redemption.
Last year, Purdue had this chance and lost to UConn. If Florida wins it all, it would be the sixth team since 1985 to win it all after a Round of 64 loss, joining 2023 UConn, 2019 Virginia, 2015 Duke, 1995 UCLA and 1987 Indiana.
Down to Earth
In the Bet Labs database, which dates back to 2005, the public (51% of spread tickets or more) is 28-30-1 ATS in the Final Four and National Championship game — two games under .500 ATS after going 0-2 ATS on Saturday.
In this year's tournament, the public is 26-38 ATS, which would be the worst year since the 2016-17 NCAA Tournament for the public betting spreads. In the Sweet 16 or later, the public is 4-10 ATS in this year's dance, the 2nd-worst mark for any tourney over the last 20 years.
When looking at the biggest public sides in just the Final Four and national title games, they are 0-4 SU and ATS in the Final Four after Duke's collapse against Houston.
Before Duke, no team had closed with even 62% of the tickets or higher in the Final Four since 2008 — and the comparisons between 2025 and 2008 are a little scary. Both were No. 1 seed Final Fours in San Antonio, where one team led by 9 with about 2:10 left and blew it.
Biggest Public Sides in Final Four Since 2005
| Team | Matchup (ET) | Year/Result |
|---|---|---|
| UNC (-2.5) vs. Kansas | 2008, Final Four UNC (70%) | Kansas, 84-66 |
 | Memphis (-1.5) vs. Kansas | 2008, Title Game Memphis (65%) | Kansas, 75-68 |
| Duke (-4.5) vs. Houston | 2025, Final Four Duke (64%) | Houston, 70-67 |
 | LSU (-1.5) vs. UCLA | 2006, Final Four LSU (63%) | UCLA, 59-45 |
The Houston Good and Bad
The Cougars have played only seven games as an underdog dating back to the start of the 2020 season. They are 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in those games, covering the spread by over 8 PPG.
Houston has had tremendous trouble in the second halves this season prior to the game against Duke. The Cougars are 13-24 against the second-half spread. Of 300 teams in the Bet Labs database for CBB this year, they rank 296th in 2H ATS.
Against nonconference opponents this season, they are 4-10 ATS in the second half. Houston hasn't covered the 2H spread in consecutive games since late January.
Houston has been downright dominant this year. With one regulation loss (Nov. 9 vs. Auburn), it's currently on an 18-game SU win streak and has just one total loss since Dec. 1.
Plus, its defense has held 23 teams to 60 points or less. The Cougars are 23-0 SU in those games and 33-0 SU when holding opponents to 70 points or fewer.
Bet Labs Systems
Houston survived their game against Duke after coming back from 14 pts down and after shooting just 37.7% from the field. Teams have historically covered later in the tournament after a "poor" shooting performance.
Current match: Houston
This system looks to bet against good ATS teams this season, especially when the good ATS team is also the public side.
Current match: Houston
First half unders have been profitable in the NCAA Tournament when the full game total actually gets bet up. This system is .500 ATS or better in 6 of the last 7 years.
Current match: 1st half under
Looking now at the second half under. This is a plain bet, not strings attached. 2nd half unders are an even 3-3 in Elite 8 or later this year. Since 2011, they are 63% later in the dance.
Current match: 2nd half under
