The North Carolina Tar Heels were awarded a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament — and fulfill all the historical trends that have determined title winners in the past — and yet, they're underrated in the market.
That's according to our data analytics team, led by Sean Koerner, who has developed an algorithm that projects every potential matchup and futures market for every team in the field this March Madness.
North Carolina is ranked No. 9 on KenPom. The Tar Heels are the only No. 1 seed outside of the top three in overall adjusted efficiency. That makes them vulnerable. Koerner gives them a 24.5% chance of advancing to the Final Four, which is by far the lowest of any No. 1 seed by almost 10 percentage points.
It is no secret that North Carolina is vulnerable, but that has actually given the Tar Heels an edge in futures markets.
North Carolina's odds to advance to the Elite Eight, according to Koerner, are roughly +133 as Koerner gives them a 42.9% chance of winning three straight games in the tournament.
That's relative to market-best odds of +172 at FanDuel. That implies a probability of 36.76%.
This discrepancy in outlooks represents a roughly 6.14% difference in positive expected value. Koerner routinely moves markets and is the standard bearer for analytics in fantasy football and college basketball.
For this tournament, that 6.14% in +EV means that for every dollar you wager on this prop, you can expect to return 6.14 cents in value if you make similar bets over the long run.
There is still some value on Sweet 16 and Final Four odds for the Tar Heels, but their Elite Eight odds are by far the best value.
