Ah, spring — when one’s mind turns to March Madness odds, and when the hope of upsets springs eternal.
Except for this year.
The NCAA Tournament is chalkier than a bottle of Tums, much to the chagrin of oddsmakers.
“I’m not happy about it,” DraftKings Sportsbook Director of Operations Johnny Avello said. “The way we’d like it to go is to have a nice mix of teams.”
Instead, we’re heading to the Final Four with all No. 1 seeds. Avello helps dive into how 2025 March Madness has evolved, and where DraftKings sits on Final Four odds and championship futures.
No Cinderella Story
The first two days of the NCAA Tournament — comprising of 32 games — set the tone for the rest of the event. Favorites went 25-7 straight up and there were no major upsets.
Yes, the highly popular pick of a 12-seed beating a 5-seed came to fruition twice: Colorado State beat Memphis and McNeese State knocked out Clemson, but Colorado State was actually a favorite.
The second round brought more of the same. In fact, over the NCAA Tournament’s first 48 games, favorites went 36-12 SU.
“The first Thursday/Friday, you expect a lot of volatility, but there wasn’t,” Avello said. “Favorites are winning at a much higher rate than we normally see.”
For updates and insights on the Final Four, check out VegasInsider’s Final Four Odds Report.
Where’s The Madness?
If oddsmakers didn’t like the first two rounds, then they really didn’t like the Sweet 16 and Elite 8. There were 12 games in all — four Thursday, four Friday, two Saturday and two Sunday, and favorites went a perfect 12-0 straight up.
Not an upset to be found.
“This is a business about things you think are gonna happen, but then don’t happen," Avello said. "It’s not called March Madness because we know at the beginning that all the 10 through 16 seeds are out. This tournament is about buzzer-beaters, 13s knocking off 4s [and] the 12-5 upsets. There’s always an unexpected result.
“And by the Final Four, there’s maybe one No. 1 or No. 2 seed, and one 4 or 5 seed, then maybe an 8 or 9 or a 10. But this tournament hasn’t lived up to that term, March Madness.”
Indeed, for the first time since 2008 and only the second time since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, all that remains are No. 1 seeds: Auburn, Duke, Florida and Houston.
It’s not entirely surprising.
Pre-NCAA Tournament, in championship futures odds, there was a significant gap between those four outfits and the rest of the field. Still, history shows that No. 1 seeds regularly stumble.
“We knew those four teams were head-and-shoulders above all the others, but we didn’t think it’d be all four 1 seeds that would make it,” Avello said. “There were a couple of close calls. Florida could’ve actually lost.”
That seemed almost certain in the Elite 8. The Gators trailed No. 3 seed Texas Tech 75-66 with 3:14 remaining, then Florida knocked down four consecutive 3-pointers as part of a game-closing 18-4 run, notching an 84-79 victory.
Four Of A Kind
So, now we’re left with the four No. 1 seeds, whom Avello accurately stated are head-and-shoulders above everyone else. From a casual observer’s standpoint, it seems March Madness odds unfolded exactly as they should have.
But Avello, and even all the bettors, know better than that. This is unusual.
“It’s a good story. We want to find out who the champ is between these four teams — who’s truly the best team,” Avello said. “But for the books, we’re looking for a mix. Having the best four teams there is just too easy.
“And the public’s not always looking for the best team, either. They’re looking for that story of a team that found its mojo late and went on to win it all.”
No. 10 seed Arkansas had a chance to be that team in its first year under coach John Calipari. In the Sweet 16, the Razorbacks led Texas Tech 61-45 midway through the second half.
With four minutes left, Arkansas was still up 69-59, but Texas Tech rallied to force a 72-72 tie in regulation, then won 85-83 in overtime.
“This year, that Cinderella team was probably Arkansas. Bettors gravitated toward them, rooting for that team,” Avello said. “If Arkansas made the Final Four, that would’ve been better.
“That’s the kind of thing that usually happens. A team goes much further than anyone expected. They’d be the talk of the tournament. Now, the talk of the tournament is the four No. 1 seeds.”
Futures Forecast
Avello and oddsmakers at sportsbooks across the country now have to make do with all No. 1s on the Final Four odds board. On the bright side, these are four great teams, which should produce plenty of action on Saturday’s semifinals and Monday’s championship game.
And March Madness futures odds are obviously a big part of the final equation. DraftKings is hoping to do better in that market than it’s done with NCAA Tournament odds thus far.
“Houston and Auburn are both OK for us. Duke has been bet all year long, but the Blue Devils never had long odds,” Avello said. “Florida had some pretty lucrative odds at some points. We’ve taken bets all along the way.”
Preseason, you could’ve gotten the Gators at +5000 or more to win the title, if you shopped around. Now, DraftKings has Florida as the +300 second choice, behind +105 favorite Duke, with Houston +400 and Auburn +500.
“We’ve got some hazards on the Gators, but nothing extraordinary. I think it’s Duke we need out of there now,” Avello said.
