The Tennessee Volunteers clock in as the No. 7 team in the country according to KenPom — and fulfill all the historical trends that have determined title winners in the past — and yet, they're underrated in the market.
That's according to our data analytics team, led by my colleague Sean Koerner, who has developed an algorithm that projects every potential matchup and every single futures market for every team in the field this March Madness.
For Tennessee, their odds to win it all, according to Koerner, are roughly +1100 despite a relatively difficult road to the Final Four that could force them to face off against both Creighton (No. 11 on KenPom) and one of Purdue (No. 3), Gonzaga (No. 15) or Kansas (No. 23).
That's relative to market-best odds of +1700 at FanDuel.
This discrepancy in outlooks represents a roughly 2.7% difference in positive expected value. Koerner routinely moves market places and is the standard bearer for analytics in fantasy football and college basketball.
For this tournament, that 2.7% in +EV means that for every dollar you wager on this prop, you can expect to return 2.7 cents in value if you make similar bets over the long run.
By that same ilk, Koerner's odds on Tennessee to get past the Midwest Region and make the Final Four has value.
While Koerner projects that line at +244, FanDuel is pricing that prop at +360. That's roughly 7.33% in EV, an even better mark than the championship figure.
This line may be deflated based on pure pedigree, where coach Rick Barnes will yet again challenge his incredibly shaky NCAA Tournament record. To people in the numbers business, however, he's just experienced a bad run of variance.
In addition to Koerner's proprietary algorithm, the historical data matches up with the notion that Tennessee is a real threat this season.
Every single champion since 2004 has ranked in the top 40 in adjusted offense and top 22 in adjusted defense, according to KenPom, before the start of the tournament. Tennessee is one of eight teams that encompasses this list this season.
And all but two champions since 2004 have had an adjusted efficiency margin above 23.83, an adjusted offensive efficiency above 113.9 and an adjusted defensive efficiency below 96.2. Tennessee is also one of eight teams to fulfill this criteria this year.
Tennessee starts its campaign off against St. Peters as 21.5-point favorites. Koerner gives their chances at winning this contest on Thursday at 98%.
