NCAA Tournament Player Props · Saturday, March 23
We got back on track yesterday, going 2-1, but with the Round of 32 upon us, it's a whole new ballgame. Despite the competition getting fiercer, there are still plenty of edges to be had in the player prop market.
So, let's not waste any more time and dive into our top player props for Saturday's second-round slate.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 3:15 p.m. | |
| 5:30 p.m. | |
| 9:40 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Gonzaga vs. Kansas
Anton Watson
Over 12.5 Points (-120)
On paper, this does not look like the best matchup for Gonzaga's big men. However, the reality is that if the Zags going to win this game, the Bulldogs need Anton Watson to stay hot in the paint and challenge Hunter Dickinson.
If you're looking for points from Gonzaga, Watson has been the go-to guy, surpassing this number in 61% of games this season. His success stems from his being very efficient with a high shot volume.
He averages nearly nine 2-point attempts per game and has converted them at a 60% clip. His volume should be the same in this matchup, as Gonzaga doesn't have the perimeter shooting to hit Kansas where it's weakest.
Lastly, this is one of our better edges projection-wise. Our Action Labs projections have Watson pegged for 14.9 points this afternoon.
Pick: Anton Watson Over 12.5 Points (-120)
Michigan State vs. North Carolina
Armando Bacot
Over 9.5 Rebounds (+100)
Next, we head to a crucial matchup for the No. 1 seed North Carolina Tar Heels. They take on a Michigan State Spartans team that's looking to give them a run for their money.
However, one area where they'll have an advantage is on the glass, and the man leading the way in that category will be Armando Bacot.
Bacot has become a household name by dominating the paint for years in North Carolina, and this season was no different. He averaged 10.3 rebounds per game and exceeded this mark in 57% of games. However, he has turned it up a notch down the stretch, averaging 11.2 rebounds over his last five games.
Michigan State doesn't have the size to contain him on the offensive glass, and it's just an average defensive rebounding team.
Speaking of defensive rebounding, that's where Bacot will do most of his damage. Michigan State will likely focus on getting back after misses, as North Carolina wants to push the tempo with fast breaks.
While our Action Labs projection of 10.6 isn't the most considerable edge, it's the price that makes this a top play. This line should be priced at -133, and we're getting it at plus-money.
Pick: Armando Bacot Over 9.5 Rebounds (+100)
Oregon vs. Creighton
Jermaine Couisnard
Under 18.5 Points (-129)
Oregon's Jermaine Couisnard exploded in his opening-round matchup, scoring 40 points on 14-of-22 shooting from the floor.
While his performance is impressive, it's far from sustainable,. That mark set a career high, and his track record suggests some significant regression is coming.
Couisnard has gone under this total in 71% of games this season, which includes 10 of his last 15. So, while we've seen his ceiling when it comes to scoring, we can't expect back-to-back big games, especially against this Creighton defense.
The Bluejays are stout defensively, ranking 26th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 11th in effective field-goal percentage allowed. They excel at shutting down perimeter shooting and have a fearsome rim protector in 7-foot-1 center Ryan Kalkbrenner.
Action Labs has him projected for 13.7 points, making this one of the biggest edges on the board. It's clear all signs point to the under.
Pick: Jermaine Couisnard Under 18.5 Points (-129)
