Twenty days may have already gone by this month, but March officially starts now.
And what better way to kick off the Madness than with a couple of player props from Action Network's Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner?
Koerner is targeting two props for Thursday, and it all starts with Michigan State's Tyson Walker in the first-round opener against Mississippi State. Then, to close it all out, he's looking at Colorado State's Patrick Cartier in an evening matchup against Texas.
Check out both of Koerner's March Madness player prop picks for Thursday's NCAA Tournament games below.
Koerner's March Madness Player Props
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 12:15 p.m. | |
| 6:50 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Michigan State vs. Mississippi State
Tyson Walker
Under 3.5 Assists (+100)
Walker stayed under this number 59% of the time in conference play, and that was with Michigan State averaging 70 points per game. The Spartans' team total sits at just 65.5 on Thursday, which dings his assist projection a tad.
Mississippi State plays at a slower pace and allows an assist on 2% fewer field goals made than the league average.
The Bulldogs defense ranks top-20 in KenPom’s efficiency metric and allowed opponents to shoot just 29% from beyond the arc — the fourth-lowest rate in the country — which can make it difficult for opposing players to rack up assists.
I’m projecting Walker closer to 3 assists with a 63% chance to stay under 3.5.
Pick: Tyson Walker Under 3.5 Assists (+100)
Colorado State vs. Texas
Patrick Cartier
Under 3.5 Rebounds (-110)
Colorado State has faced a top-50 team — like Texas — 13 times this year, and Cartier has stayed under 3.5 rebounds in nine of those games for a 69% rate.
Texas is a good shooting team and relies on 2-point attempts, so there will likely be fewer rebound opportunities to go around in this matchup.
Cartier has a pretty low rebound rate for a big man and typically tops out around 24 minutes.
We're projecting him closer to 3 rebounds with a 63% chance to stay under 3.5.
Pick: Patrick Cartier Under 3.5 Rebounds (-110)
