Our Director of Predictive Analytics and one of the brains behind the college basketball player projections that power our Action Labs Props Tool outlines his projections to lead each of Friday night's March Madness matchups in scoring, plus a pick for Saint Peter's-Purdue.
Koerner had a 25-10 record on March Madness props heading into the Sweet 16. You can follow him in the Action Network app to see more of his bets.
March Madness Props
To Score Most Points In Purdue vs. Saint Peter's
Pick: Jaden Ivey +160 at FanDuel
Saint Peter's plays a deep rotation — their 40% bench minute rate ranks 17th in the country, per KenPom — so it's going to be hard for any one player on the Peacocks' side to score the most points, especially considering they have a very low team total of 60.5 points.
Jaden Ivey is Purdue's leading scorer and should be the clear favorite to take down this market.
The players with the best shot of outscoring Ivey are the two big men, Zach Edey and Trevion Williams. Both play only about 20 minutes a game, lowering their ceiling. Over the past 10 games, Edey and Williams have combined for two games of 20+ points, while Ivey has cleared 20+ five times.
My predictive analysts team is giving Ivey around a 53% chance to be the top scorer of this matchup, which means he's an excellent value at +160.
March Madness Projections
Below are Sean Koerner's projected chances of every player finishing as the top scorer in each of Friday's four men's NCAA Tournament matchups — you can toggle between games with the arrows on desktop, or by using the dropdown on mobile.
You can find his actual point projections (and more) in our Action Labs Props Tool.
