Sean Koerner — our Director of Predictive Analytics and one of the brains behind our college basketball player projections in our Action Labs Props Tool — outlines his top scorer projections for Thursday night's Sweet 16 matchups for the men's NCAA Tournament.
He also reveals his favorite top scorer pick featuring Houston-Arizona.
Koerner has a 25-10 record on March Madness props through the first two rounds. You can follow him in the Action Network app to see more of his picks.
March Madness Props
Houston-Arizona Top Scorer
Pick: Kyler Edwards +650 at FanDuel
Koerner: Arizona is lethal against 2-point attempts, ranking second in 2P% allowed, so we could see Houston lean on its 3-point shooting more as a result.
Kyler Edwards is Houston’s main 3-point shooter and leading scorer (among the Cougars' active players), so he should be the most likely player to lead his team in scoring.
Bennedict Mathurin should clearly be the favorite in this market, but Houston’s elite defense is equipped to slow down a player as talented as Mathurin. His ceiling is lower in this spot as Arizona might have to lean on other players to step up in order to win.
We are getting nice value with Edwards at +650 as I would project his odds closer to +365 and would bet him to +550.
March Madness Projections
Below are Sean Koerner's projected chances of every player finishing as the top scorer in each of Thursday's four matchups — you can toggle between games with the arrows on desktop, or by using the dropdown on mobile.
You can find his actual point projections (and more) in our Action Labs Props Tool.
