March Madness Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer
Two days down, two days to go. The best time of the year still has some dancing left…
The important thing to know for this story: this is a live article, I will be updating notes, trends, and futures up until Sunday night for the Round of 32. Bookmark, reload, and more will come. The time/date below is the last edit.
We're here to answer tourney questions, dish out stats and facts, talk futures, the bracket, coaches, cinderella, and more. Welcome to the March Madness Round of 32 edition of Action Network's betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Friday, March 21, 11:30 p.m. ET.
Chalk Full
Favorites Strike Back
Favorites of 8 points finish the Round of 64, 14-0 SU — the third time in the last 20 years favs of 8+ went 14-0 SU or better with 2017 and 2007.
Not only that, top-4 seeds went 16-0 SU in the Round of 64, no upsets for 16, 15, 14 or 13 seeds — the 6th time that has happened (2017, 2007, 2004, 2000, 1994).
Big Start
Big Ten Goes 8-0 SU/ATS
A start like no other. The Big Ten conference went 8-0 SU/ATS in the Round of 64, the best start ever for any conference in the tournament.
Dog Again
Cal's New Experience
In his coaching career, John Calipari had never been an underdog in the Round of 64 — that ended Friday (favorite in 23 straight R64 games).
Now, he's an underdog again in the Round of 32 — the 4th time in his tourney career he's been an underdog in consecutive NCAA Tournament games, in 2007, 2014, and 2017. In 2007 and 2017, he lost ending his journey, but in 2014 he won going all the way to the title game.
Three Is The Word
Connecticut's Quest
Only once in NCAA Tournament history dating back to 1939 has a team won three straight titles — and that was UCLA between 1967 and 1973, who won seven straight titles.
Seven other teams entered a season after winning two straight titles and they all came up short:
2008 Florida
1993 Duke
1966 UCLA
1963 Cincinnati
1957 San Francisco
1950 Kentucky
1947 Oklahoma State
A baker's dozen. 13 straight covers now in the tournament for UConn, going 6-0 ATS in 2023 and 2024 and now 1-0 ATS in 2025. In March Madness history, eight different schools have won back-to-back titles, with there being a total of 13 instances of back-to-back titles being won, including UCLA winning seven titles in a row between 1967-73.
UConn in 2023-24 was the first instance of a team covering the spread in each of its tourney wins en route to the back-to-back titles. Let's start with Dan Hurley. His 16-3 ATS (84.2%) record is the highest ATS win percentage for a coach (min. 10 games) in the seeding era since 1979.
- UConn is the first team in seeding era ('79) to win and cover 10, 11, 12 and 13 in a row.
- The Huskies are on a 29-6 ATS run in the dance since 2009 (covered by double-digits in 14 games).
Most Consecutive NCAAT ATS Covers Since 1979
- UConn 13 (2023-25)
- WVU 12 (1998-08)
- Villanova 11 (1985-88)
Through The Roof
Highest Ever
There were some high totals in the Round of 64 this year. The average O/U in the 2025 Round of 64 was 147.6 pts, the highest for this round in the last 30 years. We also had 13 games at 150 or higher, which was also be a record in that span.
In the Round of 32, we only have four games listed at 150 or higher, including Kentucky-Illinois, which is 170.5. If that total closes at 170 or more, it would join 2024 Alabama's three tourney game campaign as the only totals of 170 or more since 1995.
Reminder!
Weak Favorites
The only team since 1985 to start an NCAA Tournament 0-2 ATS and go on to win it all was Arizona in 1997.
Here are the four options at 0-1 ATS this year:
Auburn
Alabama
Tennessee
Texas Tech
St. Mary's
Inflation Issues
Ice Cold
Don't always believe what you just saw. Since 2013, teams to win by 20+ points in the Round of 64 are 22-39-1 ATS (36%) in the Round of 32 when their opponent won by less than 20 points in the Round of 64.
Current Matches: St. John's (vs. ARK), Auburn (vs. CREI), UCLA (vs. TENN)
Quiet on the Western Front
Is This The Year?
Since Arizona won the national title in 1997, no team west of Texas has won it all.
We have a few teams still remaining in the field who fit this criteria: BYU, Gonzaga, UCLA, Colorado State, Saint Mary's, Arizona, and Oregon.
Momentum Matters Sometimes
Don't Lose Early
Since seeding began in 1978, every NCAA champion to play in a conference tournament won at least one game in that appetizer for March Madness. In that span, eight champions never actually had a conference tournament ('97 ARI, '95 UCLA, '89 MICH, '87 IU, '81 IU, '79 MSU, '78 UK, '77 MARQ).
If this trend holds true, here are some of the candidates this eliminates this year who are still alive in the field: UCLA and Texas A&M
Out of Nowhere
Izzo and The Storm
In the 64-team era, there have been 39 teams to enter the tournament as a 1- or 2-seed that weren't ranked in the preseason AP poll. They have combined for zero Final Fours, averaging fewer than two wins per tournament. (via Ken Pom)
Since 2018, none have advanced past the Sweet 16:
2024: Iowa State (S16)
2023: Purdue (R64), Marquette (R32)
2022: Arizona (S16)
2021: Alabama (S16)
2018: Virginia (R64)
In 2025, that is Michigan State and St. John’s, who are both still left in the field.
March Madness 2025
Futures | Matchups | Bet Labs | Trends |
Future Markets & Notes
Here's a look at the BetMGM futures market, from opening to current lines to win it all:
What are the highest odds to win the title entering the NCAA Tournament since seeding began in 1978? Only four teams listed above 20-1 entering March Madness have won the title in that same time frame:
2014 Connecticut
100-1 pre-tournament
1985 Villanova
35-1 pre-tournament
2011 Connecticut
25-1 pre-tournament
1983 NC State
25-1 pre-tournament
After flip-flopping, Duke and Florida were tied atop the odds board entering the NCAA Tournament at +325. How have pre-tournament favorites performed in March Madness recently? The pre-tournament favorite has gone on to win it all ten times since 2000, including last year by UConn.
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➤Last pre-tournament favorites to lose in the first weekend since 1990: 2010 Kansas, 2004 Kentucky, 1994 UNC, 1990 Oklahoma.
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How has the preseason favorite to win the national title performed in March Madness?
Kansas
UConn
This year's preseason favorites entering the regular season were Kansas and Connecticut, both at +900 odds. Kansas entered the regular season last year as the favorites to win it all and lost in the Round of 32. This year, Kansas was eliminated in the Round of 64 to Arkansas — Kansas became the second AP preseason No. 1 team to lose in the Round of 64. The only other team to do so? Kansas in 2005, when it lost to 14-seed Bucknell.
In 2021, Baylor and Gonzaga were preseason favorites and met in the title game (Baylor won it all). Before that, the last preseason favorite to win it all was UNC at +500 back in 2009.
Preseason favorites to make Final Four Since 2009:
2021 Baylor
+800 preseason
2021 Gonzaga
+800 preseason
2014/2015 Kentucky
+300/+400 preseason
2009 North Carolina
+500 preseason
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Matchups: Saturday Games
Between his days at Southern Illinois and Purdue, Matt Painter has coached 17 Round of 64 games — his teams are 13-4 ATS (77%) in that round. His 77% ATS win pct in the Round of 64 is the highest mark for any head coach with a minimum of 10 games coached.
In the Round of 32, Painter has won five games in a row outright and overall, he is also 8-3 ATS in his career in the Round of 32 — making Painter 21-7 ATS in the Round of 64 and 32, also a record. Overall, Painter has also had success as a favorite, too, going 16-8 ATS in the tourney.
Purdue had to battle down the stretch with High Point, only covering the spread by 4.5 pts. When Painter either doesn't cover or covers by a slim margin (5 pts or less) in the Round of 64, he's 6-0 ATS in the Round of 32.
McNeese State has won 12 consecutive games outright — Purdue has only faced one team on a 10+ game win streak since 2019, Connecticut in the tournament last year.
4 seeds have had success in the Round of 32 vs. 12 seeds recently, going 9-4 ATS since the 2014 NCAA Tournament.
After the win over Kansas, John Calipari is now 21-3 straight up in Round of 64, In his coaching career, Calipari has been listed as an underdog in the tournament 11 times and he is 7-3-1 ATS, going 5-0-1 ATS while with Arkansas and Kentucky. Calipari hadn't been an underdog in either the Round of 64 or 32 since 2014 before Thursday.
Calipari has coached 80 NCAA Tournament games, this is his second-biggest line as an underdog, closing at +7.5 in the 1996 Final Four with UMass against Kentucky, a game they lost by 7 pts.
When it comes to postseason play, Rick Pitino has been hard to beat. Since 2020, he is 12-3-1 ATS in either his Conference Tournament or the NCAA Tournament, including 6-0 ATS over the last two years.
Michigan has been the close-call kings. They have had 14 games decided by 3 pts or less this season and they've won 8 of those "3-point" games in a row outright since February 1st. Michigan now has 13 wins by 4 points or fewer this season, the most by any Division I team in a season since Bradley in 1985-86.
Between last year's tournament and this one, Texas A&M and Buzz Williams have covered three straight NCAA Tournament games, which is the longest streak of Buzz's coaching career. Looking overall at how coaches do on a quick turn, Buzz Williams is 50-33-1 ATS coaching in games on 2 days' rest or less (Thursday to Saturday.
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After beating Missouri in the Round of 64, Drake is now 8-0 SU when listed as underdogs this year. As either an underdog or favored by 5 points or less, Drake is a perfect 11-0 SU/ATS this year and lately, their totals have been going under, too. The full game under has cashed in four straight Drake games going back to the start of their conference tournament.
Going back to the start of the Big 12 Tournament for Texas Tech, they have yet to cover the spread, going 0-3 ATS going into the Round of 32 as a 7+ point favorite against Drake. Overall Texas Tech is just 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games, but a bad ATS stretch isn't a terrible thing. Teams in the Round of 32 losing 3+ straight games ATS are 20-11 SU and 17-13-1 ATS last 20 years in the dance.
Greg McDermott’s NCAA Tournament streaks are close to unmatched. Up to 2021, he was 4-9-1 ATS in the tourney with Northern Iowa and Creighton. Since 2022, he has been 8-2 ATS in the tournament, with both his ATS losses coming in his team's exit, in the Elite 8 and Sweet 16 the last two years.
Bruce Pearl has received a top-4 seed five times as a head coach and his teams have never advanced past the Sweet 16, going 2-9 ATS in those games.
Last year, Auburn lost to Yale in the Round of 64 and they are back getting a 1 seed — they are the 19th team since 1978 to get a 1 seed the year after losing in the Round of 64. Four won the title, 9 or half made the Final Four, and only won didn’t make the second weekend, 2000 Arizona.
Greg Gard has coached 13 NCAA Tournament games with Wisconsin — he is 6-6-1 ATS, 4-1-1 ATS as an underdog, and just 2-5 ATS as a favorite even after their cover vs. Montana.
BYU broke a 5-game ATS losing streak in the NCAA Tournament against VCU on Thursday — the Cougars were 1-7-1 ATS in the Round of 64 over the last 20 years before their win. BYU hasn't covered consecutive games in the NCAA Tournament since 1990-91 behind Shawn Bradley.
Having to prep on short rest, Gard definitely has the advantage over Kevin Young at BYU. Gard is 18-11 ATS, while Young is just 1-1 ATS, having only two games of experience.
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In program history, Gonzaga is 20-11 ATS when seeded outside the top four — they are currently an 8-seed this season and covered against Georgia in their opener.
Mark Few has made the Round of 32 in 16 consecutive tournaments. The automatic bid is good for the Zags. Both title game appearances came as a WCC tournament winner and they are 36-18 SU in the tournament as an automatic qualifier. The issue has been covering, where they are 21-32-1 ATS under Few as an auto.
For Kelvin Sampson, the issues came later in the tournament. Since 2005, he is 11-6 ATS in the Round of 64 and 32, and 2-6 ATS in the Sweet 16 or later. In his coaching career in the NCAA Tournament, Sampson has avoided the big upset, going 12-0 SU as a favorite of 8 pts or more.
Rick Barnes is 22-37 (37%) against the spread in the NCAA Tournament in his coaching career with Providence, Clemson, Texas, and Tennessee. That includes a record of 5-18 ATS in the tournament since 2010. Of the 306 coaches in that span, Barnes is the least profitable on a $100 wager at -$1,333. Barnes hasn’t finished a single NCAA Tournament above .500 ATS since 2009 — 11 straight tournaments .500 ATS or worse.
Barnes is 2-15 ATS in that span as an underdog or favorite of under 10 points. Between Tennessee, Texas, and Clemson, Rick Barnes knows his orange — but in his 28 tournament appearances, he’s lost in the first weekend in 19 of them, losing in the Sweet 16 in five more, with Barnes going to one Final Four, with Texas in 2003.
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Matchups: Sunday Games
Let's start with Dan Hurley. His 16-3 ATS (84%) record is the highest ATS win percentage for a coach (min. 10 games) in the seeding era since 1979.
- UConn is the first team in seeding era ('79) to win and cover 10, 11, 12 and 13 in a row.
- The Huskies are on a 29-6 ATS run in the dance since 2009 (covered by double-digits in 14 games).
Most Consecutive NCAAT ATS Covers Since 1979 * UConn 13 (2023-25) * WVU 12 (1998-08) * Villanova 11 (1985-88)
Todd Golden has yet to cover a game in the NCAA Tournament, going 0-1 ATS with San Francisco and 0-2 ATS with Florida in 2024 and 2025. Florida has only been a 1 seed twice prior to this year, in 2007 and 2014, both times making the Final Four.
Duke has received a 1 seed 14 times prior to this year and they have never lost in the first weekend and 7 of the 14 they made the Final Four.
This season, Duke is 24-0 SU as a double-digit favorite — the most wins without a loss as a big favorite than any other team in the country. Overall, they’ve won 25 consecutive games outright as a double-digit favorite dating back to last season.
In their history, Duke’s entered the tournament under 4-1 odds 5 times. They made the title game in 3 of them, and never lost in the first weekend.
Illinois-Kentucky currently has a total of 170.5 — this would be the 4th-highest over/under in any NCAA Tournament game since the 1995 tourney, behind Alabama's three games in last year's dance.
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Bet Labs Systems
Let's take a look at some NCAA Tournament systems. Click each system for matches, bets, and detailed profitability charts.
Notes: This system targets undervalued teams coming off a good defensive performance — it went 2-1 ATS in the Round of 64 and is above .500 ATS in the NCAA Tournament seven straight years.
Current matches: Drake, UCLA, Saint Mary's
Notes: The old notion, "Fade The Public." This system targets under-bet teams in high-bet games. For this, we are using a 1.1X daily bet average. If you have Bet Labs, increase that DB-AVG for smaller samples, and higher ROI matches.
Current matches: Check updated betting lines
Notes: Free-throw shooting in the tournament is key. This system targets the better shooting teams vs. the teams shooting under 75%.
Current matches: Gonzaga, Texas Tech, Wisconsin
Early Shooting
Ice Cold
Since 2011, games played at 1 ET or earlier in March Madness have seen the under go 67-50-3 (5%) in the first half with a +9% ROI.
Current matches: Purdue-McNeese State, Iowa State-Ole Miss, Alabama-St. Mary's, Duke-Baylor
Over! Look Under.
When two teams who are both over .500 to the over during their season entering the NCAA Tournament meet, the total being inflated and the under hitting has been a good strategy.
Current matches: Wisconsin-BYU
Buyer Beware
Teams to win by 20+ points in the Round of 64 are 77-30 straight up, but just 46-59-2 ATS in the Round of 32 when their opponent won by less than 20 points in the Round of 64 since 2005.
Current Matches: St. John's (vs. ARK), Auburn (vs. CREI), UCLA (vs. TENN)
In last year's tournament, these teams went 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS, their first year above .500 ATS in this trend since 2012.
Let's Talk Elevation
Using Bet Labs, we've identified 17 schools playing in the highest elevation in the country during the season. Since 2005, those teams are 26-56-1 ATS (32%) in the NCAA Tournament. They've finished above .500 ATS as a group of schools just once since 2005.
Current matches: BYU
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March Madness Trends
Let's take a live look at the biggest line movements for the Round of 32 so far.
Biggest Spread Moves
None right now
Rising Totals
None right now
Falling Totals
None right now
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Market Money
Follow The Movement? Since 2010, in the Round of 64 or earlier, when the line moves two points or more from opening to closing toward any team (ex. -5 to -7), they are 46-40-1 ATS, a +5% ROI.
Current matches: Check updated betting lines
➤Watch Out Later: When it comes to the later rounds, fade the movement. When the line moves two points or more from open to close after the Round of 64, those teams are 4-18 ATS.
Upsets and Betting Records
Heading into the Round of 32, here are the biggest upsets in the tournament and the betting records set throughout the years.
What is the biggest NCAA Tournament favorite?
In the seeding era, in 1999 Duke took the cake when it was a 46-point favorite against Florida A&M. The Blue Devils beat the Rattlesnakes 99-58, failing to cover the lofty 46-point spread by five points. Only three teams have closed as a favorite of 35 pts or more dating back to 1978 and none since 1999 (all listed below).
Biggest Favorites in NCAA Tournament Since 1978:
| Team | Matchup (ET) | Year/Result |
|---|---|---|
| Duke (-46) vs. Florida A&M | 1999, Round of 64 Duke, 99-58 |
| Kansas (-36.5) vs. Prairie View A&M | 1998, Round of 64 Kansas, 110-52 |
| Kansas (-35.5) vs. Jackson State | 1997, Round of 64 Kansas, 78-64 |
What are the highest & lowest totals in the NCAA Tournament?
Last year's NCAA Tournament changed the game when it comes to totals. In the Round of 64, 32 and Sweet 16, Alabama had a closing over/under of 172.5, 173 and 175 — the highest totals we've seen in the tournament since 1995.
Before last year, we had only seen two totals since 1995 reach above the 170 mark in the NCAA Tournament, and those came all the way back in 1995, both with Texas involved.
Maryland vs. Texas
O/U: 177
Oregon vs. Texas
O/U: 176
➤In the 1995 tourney, the Texas Longhorns, behind coach Tommy Penders, were averaging almost 93 points per game and had back-to-back games with a total above 170. They faced Oregon in the Round of 64 and won, then the total got a little higher when they faced an even higher-scoring team in Maryland, a game in which the Longhorns lost by 14. Both games went under the total.
When it comes to the lowest totals, we've only seen one close below 110 and that came in 1996 between Princeton and Mississippi State. If we lift the floor a bit, we've only seen two totals close at 115 or lower since the 2010 NCAA Tournament — Northern Iowa/Wyoming in 2015 (110.5) and Cal/South Florida in 2012 (114).
Princeton vs. Mississippi State
O/U: 108
➤The story of this over/under tale is Princeton's defense, which was No. 1 in the country in 1995-96 and allowed under 52 points per game. As a 13-seed in the Round of 64, the Tigers beat 4-seed UCLA, 43-41, and held the Bruins to 38.5% shooting (Princeton shot 37% and won). Then in the Round of 32, the total closed at 108 vs. Mississippi State, which beat Princeton, 63-41, barely staying under the total.
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What are the easiest betting wins in the NCAA Tournament?
Between the moneyline, against the spread and totals, going through history, what has been the easiest (largest margin) wins for bettors? Let's explore.
Easiest Bets Won in NCAA Tournament Since 1978:
| Teams | Year/Result | Bet Type |
|---|---|---|
 | 2016 National Semifinals Villanova (-2.5) | VIL, 95-51 Covered by 41.5 pts | Against The Spread |
 | 1998 Round of 64 Kansas (-36.5) | KU, 110-52 Won by 58 pts | Moneyline |
 | 2002 Round of 32 Cincinnati/UCLA (139) | 105-101 Went over by 67 pts | Over |
 | 2017 Round of 64 S. Dakota St/Gonzaga (157.5) | 66-46 Went under by 45.5 pts | Under |
What are the biggest betting upsets in the NCAA Tournament?
Since seeding began in 1978, nine teams have lost straight up in the NCAA Tournament as a favorite of 15 points or more. Let's look at the top six and more.
2023
Purdue (-23.5) lost to Fairleigh Dickinson
2012
Missouri (-21) lost to Norfolk State
2018
Virginia (-20.5) lost to UMBC
1997
South Carolina (-18.5) lost to Coppin State
1993
Arizona (-18.5) lost to Santa Clara
2022
Kentucky (-17.5) lost to Saint Peter's
2001
Iowa State (-17.5) lost to Hampton
1986
Notre Dame (-17) lost to Arkansas-Little Rock
2016
Michigan State (-16.5) lost to Middle Tennessee State
➤Since 1978, Kansas has the most losses by any school as a double-digit favorite (6), but none since 2011. Arizona and Duke are second on that list with four losses as double-digit favorites each — Arizona's last loss came in 2023, while Duke's was back in 2014.
➤Perfect Trip: In that same timeframe, here are the teams with the most SU wins without a loss as a double-digit favorite: Louisville (16-0), Michigan (15-0), Syracuse (12-0), Arkansas (10-0), Maryland (10-0) and UNLV (10-0). Tennessee (9), Cincinnati (9), and Pittsburgh (8) are the next-closest teams.
What are the worst betting losses later in March Madness?
Since seeding began in 1978, seven teams have lost straight up in the Sweet 16 or later as a favorite of 10 points or more. Our last example of this came back in 2022 when both Purdue and Gonzaga lost in the same season. Let's take a look at the top seven losses.
2022
Purdue (-13) lost to Saint Peter's
2002
Duke (-12) lost to Indiana
2011
Kansas (-11.5) lost to VCU
1998
Arizona (-10.5) lost to Utah
1997
Kansas (-10.5) lost to Arizona
2022
Gonzaga (-10) lost to Arkansas
1985
Georgetown (-10) lost to Villanova
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