Wiseguys swept the board for the second consecutive day yesterday, cashing all three of their Wednesday plays (NC Central spread, Alabama over and St. John's under).
Sharps will look to continue their hot streak by remaining fearless but disciplined. With a full day of Round of 64 games on tap, there's no need to force a play: only get down when the edge presents itself.
After analyzing Thursday’s 16-game NCAA Tournament slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified three games receiving sharp action from professional bettors.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Vermont vs. Florida State
2 p.m. ET | TBS
Sharp angle: Vermont (moved from +11 to +9)
Recreational bettors are torn on this West Region First Round matchup. But wiseguys have taken a clear side.
Vermont (27-6) opened as an 11-point underdog. Despite receiving only a slight majority of bets (53%), the line has moved two full points toward the Catamounts. In a vacuum, a line shouldn't budge if the betting is relatively even, aside from a juice adjustment of a few cents.
What caused this line movement toward UVM? Follow the money.
The Cats are only receiving 53% of bets but a whopping 79% of dollars, indicating big sharp money in their favor. Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed a big steam move on UVM at +9.5. We haven't seen a single conflicting move (or buyback) on 4-seed Florida State (27-7).
Vermont also matches the profitable Bet Labs Pro System NCAA Tournament Defensive Teams (57.8% ATS since 2005).
Northeastern vs. Kansas
4 p.m. ET | TNT
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 145.5 to 143)
Sharps and squares are largely on the same page when it comes to this Midwest Region First Round over/under.
This total opened at a moderately high 145.5. With both teams giving up only 70.3 PPG and 70.1 PPG, just over 60% of bets and dollars are taking the under. We also noticed wiseguys crush the Under 144.5, triggering market-wide steam. This combination of moderate public support and big pro money forced oddsmakers to drop the total down to 143.
This under also matches the Bet Labs Pro System NCAA Tourney First Round Unders (62.5% since 2005).
Florida vs. Nevada
6:50 p.m. ET | TNT
Sharp angle: Florida (moved from +3 to +2)
This West Region First Round matchup is shaping up to be a pros vs joes showdown.
No. 7 seed Nevada (29-4) opened as short 3-point favorite. However, despite receiving nearly 60% of bets, the Wolfpack have fallen from -3 down to -2.
Why would the oddsmakers drop the spread to give public Nevada bettors an easier shot at covering?
Because wiseguys loaded up on 10-seed Florida (19-15). This influx of smart money forced books to adjust the line a full point toward the Gators.
The spot Florida finds themselves has been a big moneymaker for the sharps historically. The Gators match two separate Bet Labs Pro Systems: NCAA Tournament Contrarian (61% ATS since 2005) and NCAA Tournament Slow Paced Dogs (61.2% ATS).
