You must pick at least one 12-seed to take down a five-seed each March, right?
Well, not always.
Let's investigate all four potential 12/5 upset bids for this year's NCAA Tournament and see if there are any March Madness upset picks.
No. 12 UC San Diego Tritons
vs. No. 5 Michigan Wolverines
The UC San Diego Tritons over the Big Ten Tournament Champion Michigan Wolverines will be the trendiest 12-over-5 upset pick of this year’s NCAA Tournament.
And rightfully so!
Despite their tournament run, I remain unimpressed with the Wolverines. They failed to shoot well again — they’ve canned just 27% of their triples since February 1.
More specific to this matchup, Michigan is an incredibly sloppy ball-handling team (20% offensive turnover rate, 328th nationally, per KenPom). In comparison, UC San Diego lives on forcing turnovers (23% defensive turnover rate, second nationally, per KenPom).
You can question how UC San Diego’s interior defense will handle Michigan’s size and length, and that’s a fair point.
However, the Tritons did well against UC Irvine’s 7-foot-1 big man Bent Leuchten. They’ll double the post and make life difficult for any seven-footer — in this case, they’ll double Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf, who will be forced to kick the ball out to Wolverine shooters who haven’t made a shot in a month.
I also like UC San Diego's shooting ability. The Tritons have superb ball movement with star wing Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones and a pair of 40% 3-point shooting guards in Hayden Gray and Ty McGhie.
In my opinion, this is the most likely 12-over-5 upset in this year’s first round.
No. 12 McNeese Cowboys
vs. No. 5 Clemson Tigers
McNeese is 40-2 in Southland play over the past two seasons under Will Wade.
Last year, it notched a 12-seed but lost to Gonzaga in a game that was never close.
Will the Cowboys meet a different fate this year?
Unfortunately, Clemson is a brutal draw for McNeese.
The Pokes don’t have any size. Nobody stands over 6-foot-9, and it shows on the boards, where they rank 259th nationally in defensive rebounding rate, per KenPom.
For Clemson, Dillon Hunter’s injury moved the 6-foot-10 Chauncey Wiggins into the lineup, which gives Brad Brownell three players standing 6-foot-8 or taller in the starting five, including the 6-foot-8, 240-pound tank Ian Schieffelin.
As a result, the Tigers rank in the top 70 nationally in offensive rebounding rate (34%, per KenPom).
Clemson should grab every available offensive rebound and dominate the shot-volume battle.
On the other end of the court, McNeese’s triple-switch scrambling defense will double and deny the post while wreaking havoc and forcing turnovers (22% defensive turnover rate, 18th nationally, per KenPom).
But Clemson is a steady ball-handling team that rarely throws the ball away (16% turnover rate, 79th nationally, per KenPom).
If this game is played in the half-court with a deliberate pace, Clemson should cruise. It needs to be frenetic for McNeese to have a shot.
No. 12 Liberty Flames
vs. No. 5 Oregon Ducks
There were two things I needed to see for Liberty to have a chance in the Round of 64.
First, the Flames couldn’t play a team with a 7-footer. Second, they couldn’t play an elite shot-creating guard. They struggle to defend both.
Liberty is among the nation’s smallest teams, ranking 347th nationally in average height (75.7 inches, per KenPom).
Therefore, I’m unsure how the Flames plan to hang with Nate Bittle. He’s averaging over 14 points and seven rebounds per game, and he can step out and shoot it over Liberty’s small-ball 6-foot-8 center Owen Aquino.
The Flames will have to shoot the lights out to compete. They rank in the top 25 nationally in 3-point rate (48%, per KenPom) and make nearly 40% of them.
Colin Porter and Kaden Metheny are lights-out perimeter shooters, but both are much smaller than Jackson Shelstad and Keeshawn Barthelemy, which will create more problems.
Dana Altman is known for switching defensive schemes and morphing between drop coverage and an amoeba matchup zone. While conference opponents typically have that scouted, Liberty might struggle to figure it out in a one-game sample size.
No. 12 Colorado State Rams
vs. No. 5 Memphis Tigers
The Rams of Colorado State are one of the nation's hottest teams, winning 10 straight games and crushing the field out of the Mountain West Tournament.
But I can't get behind the Rams coming in as favorites against Memphis — even without Tyrese Hunter.
The Tigers still have PJ Haggerty, an All-American guard who dropped 42 in a first-round AAC Tournament win over Wichita State.
They also have Dain Dainja, who will have a huge matchup advantage over Colorado State’s 6-foot-7, 250-pound center Rashaan Mbemba — especially because Mbemba struggles with fouls.
The Rams will need Nique Clifford to give a dazzling performance. He’s the best player in the Mountain West and red-hot entering the Big Dance, having scored 24 or more in four consecutive games.
Also, Colorado State is likely due for some 3-point regression. During this 10-game winning streak, the Rams have shot 47% from 3 while opponents have shot 27%, two wholly unsustainable marks.
I also suspect Memphis’ toughness and physicality on defense will make life challenging for Colorado State, especially Kyan Evans, the Rams’ best shooter.
The Rams will get knocked out in the first round.
