NCAAB Odds, Pick for Marquette vs Xavier

The final Big East matchup of the regular season slate tips off on Saturday as the Xavier Musketeers host a short-handed Marquette squad in Cincy.

Xavier lost to Butler the other day, and Marquette is coming off a two-game losing streak that featured tough games against Creighton and UConn.

I still firmly believe in Marquette as a top-10-caliber team in the sport with a slight caveat. Tyler Kolek has to be healthy, and that's not reality right now, as he'll miss this game and possibly the Big East tournament.

The Golden Eagles dropped two straight without the reigning Big East POY. Marquette's typical elite offense has struggled without Kolek so far, scoring below 75 points in the pair of losses.

Replacing Kolek is impossible, but Shaka Smart has a few reliable options to pivot to. Stevie Mitchell is the modern Big East version of Josh Hart, and Oso Ighodaro makes elite passes for a forward.

Kolek does one thing Mitchell doesn't do — shoot it from deep. Mitchell's lack of shooting makes him a better complimentary player than a go-to offensive option.

The elite shooting from Kam Jones is keeping Marquette afloat while Kolek is on the shelf. The smooth lefty is the team's leading scorer at 16 points per game and shoots 40% from 3. He's coming off two 18+ scoring performances in the two losses.

Moreover, Marquette isn't reliant on just offensive output to win games. We'll still see a flash of Shaka's old-school DNA seeping into Marquette's roster, as the Golden Eagles force turnovers on 20% of defensive possessions.

Forward David Joplin has scored double-digit points in six straight games. Other players — particularly shooters — have to step up when Kolek is out, and Joplin is out-scoring his season numbers in the two games.

Everyone knows the 6-foot-8, 225-pound forward as a shooter, but we're seeing a stronger focus on driving the ball from Joplin.

Xavier hasn't beat a team not named DePaul or Georgetown in over a month. It always felt like the metrics liked the Musketeers more than the eye test revealed, and the numbers have leveled out.

On February 7, Xavier sat at 7-5 in conference play and was on the NCAA tourney bubble. Just over a month later, and an NIT bid looks out of reach if Xavier can't secure a win to grab a .500 record.

Dating back to his original days at Xavier alongside Jordan Crawford, Sean Miller has been known for coaching great offense. However, this roster isn't built for offensive success. The Musketeers rank 70th in Offensive Efficiency and struggle generating clean looks, contributing to a 49% effective field goal percentage.

Only three Xavier players average double-digit points — guards Dayvion McKnight, Desmond Claude and Quincy Olivari.

So, what's the issue? Claude is shooting 21% from 3, McKnight rarely shoots 3s and Olivari is solely a shooter. It's just a bit predictable when opposing defenses know there's a clear way to contain Xavier's three scorers.

The defense is the strong suit for Xavier. Speeding up opponents and pushing off rebounds in transition is where the Musketeers can generate quick buckets before the defense gets set.

Xavier wants a faster-paced game. It ranks 33rd in Adjusted Tempo, which is just a bit faster than Marquette's 77th Adjusted Tempo ranking.

Marquette's defense had a clear game plan for slowing down Xavier's inconsistent offense. Xavier shot 4-of-23 from 3, and forcing the Musketeers to shoot 3s is a battle opponents will often win.

Plus, Claude couldn't handle Marquette's defensive pressure, scoring zero points with four turnovers. He's a needed piece of Xavier's offensive attack.

Even without Kolek, Marquette should find offensive success via Ighodaro playmaking. Abou Ousmane's foot-speed can't keep up.

Back the Golden Eagles.

Pick: Marquette -2.5 (Play to -3)