The Maryland Terrapins take on the Penn State Nittany Lions in University Park, PA. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network.
Maryland is favored by 5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -225. The total is set at 154.5 points.
Here are my Maryland vs. Penn State predictions and college basketball picks for March 1, 2025.
Maryland vs Penn State Prediction
My Pick: PASS · Lean Penn State +5.5
My Maryland vs Penn State best bet is on the Nittany Lions spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Maryland vs Penn State Odds
| Maryland Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 154.5 -112o / -108u | -225 |
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 154.5 -112o / -108u | +185 |
- Maryland vs Penn State spread: Maryland -5.5
- Maryland vs Penn State over/under: 154.5 points
- Maryland vs Penn State moneyline: Maryland -225, Penn State +185
- Maryland vs Penn State best bet: PASS · Lean Penn State +5.5
Spread
I'm passing on this game. But I'd back the Nittany Lions if I had to pick a side.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm passing on the over/under.
My Pick: PASS · Lean Penn State +5.5
Maryland vs Penn State College Basketball Betting Preview
The key to beating a Mike Rhoades-coached defense is to beat the press. You can pulverize the Nittany Lions’ weaker interior defense if you can slice through their on-ball pressure and avoid turnovers.
Ja'Kobi Gillespie likely won’t dominate Penn State’s hard-hedging dribble denial, but the Terps can rip the Nittany Lions apart by playing through Derik Queen and Julian Reese on hard rolls and post-ups.
That said, I’m a little worried that Maryland won’t avoid those turnovers. The Terps are an average ball-handling team, and they’ve struggled against the press (.81 PPP, 21st percentile, per Synergy).
The other side of the ball is more intriguing.
Penn State is a downhill, rim-running ball-screen-centric offense, utilizing Ace Baldwin Jr.’s creation to hit cutters. Maryland plays a strict two-big drop-coverage defense, so the Terps are a solid rim-denial defense that funnels on-ball creation into the middle of the court.
That said, I somewhat trust Baldwin’s on-ball middle-of-the-floor creation. He’s done well against other drop-coverage defenses, like Washington (20 points), Michigan (15) and Clemson (20).
This is a super tough handicap, and it’s only made more challenging by Puff Johnson’s injury absence — Penn State has really missed his two-way forward play.
I’ll pass on this one. But I’d likely grab the points with Penn State if I had to pick a side.
Maryland isn’t a great road team (352nd nationally in Haslametrics' away-from-home metric), and the Nittany Lions can cover as home ‘dogs if they force turnovers, exploit Maryland in transition and get Baldwin going in ball-screen shot creation.
