Michigan vs. Maryland Odds
Maryland looks to secure its spot in the NCAA Tournament Friday when it takes on top seed Michigan.
Maryland had a statement win in the second round, blowing out Michigan State 68-57. The Terrapins are currently on the bubble as Joe Lunardi currently has them projected as a 10-seed in the NCAA Tournament. Michigan swept Maryland pretty handily in both meetings during the regular season, so they'll be out for revenge on Friday.
It was just a couple weeks ago that we were talking about Michigan being the best team in the country. Oh how a lot can change in a matter of a few weeks, as the Wolverines stumbled down the stretch, getting blown out by Illinois at home and losing to Michigan State on the road. Michigan is still one of the best teams in the country and locked in to getting a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but Juwan Howard's men need to play a lot better if Michigan is going to be a title contender.
When Maryland has the ball
Maryland's offense has really struggled during Big Ten play, as they're averaging only 0.98 points per possession, which is the third-worst average in the conference. The main issue is they're entirely too reliant on the 3-point shot.
The Terrapins attempt 3-pointers on 44.4% of their field goal attempts, which is the highest rate in the Big Ten, but only shoot 34.6%, which is only slightly above the NCAA average. In their second meeting with Michigan during the regular season, they went 4-of-19 from 3- point range, which caused them to average only 0.90 points per possession.
The bad news for Maryland is that Michigan defends the three-ball pretty well, allowing under 33% during Big Ten play. The true strength of this Michigan defense though is inside, as they have the best 2-point percentage allowed in the nation and only give up 56.4% on shot attempts at the rim, per Hoop Math. Maryland is also the worst offensive rebounding team in the conference, so if they can't make a high percentage from 3-point range, it's going to be a long night for the Terrapins.
When Michigan has the ball
The Wolverines offense has been fantastic all season long, ranking sixth in offensive efficiency per KenPom. However, they're statistically the fourth-ranked offense in the Big Ten, mainly due to their poor performances down the stretch. Over their last three games, the Wolverines have failed to score over 70 points and are averaging under 1.00 point per possession. That will be welcoming news for the Terrapins, who are holding opponents to 1.00 point per possession, which ranks fourth in the Big Ten.
The biggest problem for Maryland in this game is dealing with Hunter Dickinson. The 7-1 freshman has a massive size advantage over Maryland's frontcourt, who's tallest starter is 6-7. He dominated the Terrapins in both meetings combining for 40 points. Even though the have a size disadvantage, the Terrapins have been solid defending down low, allowing under 47% from 2-point range and have the fourth-best defensive rebounding rate in the Big Ten.
The difference in this game is going to come from behind the arc. Michigan is shooting over 39% from 3-point range, and guarding the perimeter is Maryland's weakness. The Wolverines shot over 40% combined between the two meetings this season, so they'll have to do a good job of defending the perimeter if they want any chance of winning this game.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Even though both games between these two teams flew over the total earlier this year, I think we will see a much slower pace. Michigan ranks 249th in adjusted tempo, while Maryland ranks 317th, per KenPom. Look for the Terrapins to try and control the pace and keep Michigan in the halfcourt.
I only have 129.88 points projected for this game, so I think there is a small amount of value on Under 133 points (FanDuel) or better.
Pick: Under 133 points or better
