The Memphis Tigers take on the UAB Blazers in Birmingham, AL. Tip-off is set for 4 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Memphis is favored by 1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -113. The total is set at 161.5 points.
Here’s my Memphis vs. UAB predictions and college basketball picks for March 2, 2025.
Memphis vs UAB Prediction
My Pick: Over 160.5 (Play to 163)
My Memphis vs UAB best bet is on the over, with the best odds currently available at BetRivers. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Memphis vs UAB Odds
| Memphis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -104 | 161.5 -112o / -108u | -113 |
| UAB Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -118 | 161.5 -112o / -108u | -106 |
- Memphis vs UAB spread: Memphis -1.5
- Memphis vs UAB over/under: 161.5 points
- Memphis vs UAB moneyline: Memphis -113, UAB -106
- Memphis vs UAB best bet: Over 160.5 (Play to 163)
Spread
I have no lean on the spread in this matchup.
Moneyline
Similarly, I will not be making a pick on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I see value on the over on Sunday afternoon.
My Pick: Over 160.5 (Play to 163)
Memphis vs UAB College Basketball Betting Preview
Memphis is the hunted in every AAC contest. That's the reality when a team dominates a league like the Tigers have. An extra layer of disdain toward Memphis likely stems from the 30-point drilling UAB took in the first battle back in Memphis.
The big edge that could benefit UAB this time around is on the offensive glass. The Blazers boast a 39.4% offensive rebound rate, which ranks fourth in the country.
The Blazers tend to deploy bigger lineups – with point forward Yaxel Lendeborg, 6-foot-8 Christian Coleman and 6-foot-9, 265-pound Bradley Ezewiro playing pivotal minutes. That trio should give fits to Memphis, which ranks 333rd in defensive rebounding rate.
UAB's offense is the best in the AAC — even better than Memphis. The Blazers sit 39th in KenPom's offensive efficiency and benefit a ton from never turning the ball over (14% TO rate).
I wouldn't categorize UAB as a very good scoring team from 2- or 3-point range, as the Blazers are outside the top 130 in both percentages.
So, how is UAB a top-40 offense in America with mediocre shooting splits? The offensive rebounds certainly help because they create extra shots. However, the real key is the Blazers' pace and transition scoring. They're in the top 100 in adjusted tempo and post 1.14 PPP in transition.
Lendeborg is the do-it-all man for this Blazers bunch. He leads UAB with 17.6 points, 10.9 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.6 blocks and 1.8 steals per game. He'll need a big game for UAB to put up big-time scoring numbers.
UAB just can't stop teams from shooting the ball well from deep. A lot of it comes from defensive communication issues, which has been an issue all season. Opponents shoot 35% from deep versus the Blazers, and they rank in the 10th percentile versus spot-up jumpers.
Meanwhile, Memphis is probably the most polarizing team in college basketball. The AP Poll has put the Tigers in the top 20 for most of the year, while they continue to trend downhill in KenPom (and in wins).
The Tigers have some problems, but shooting isn't one of them, as they connect on 39% from deep. The guards can really shoot it from the outside — PJ Haggerty, Tyrese Hunter, and Colby Rogers all shoot better than 37% from 3.
While Memphis ranks just 61st in offensive efficiency, the main problem is turnovers. The Tigers should avoid the turnover bug here, as UAB forces turnovers just 15% of the time. Unless Memphis has a bunch of unforced errors, it should succeed in getting a shot off.
Similar to UAB, Memphis wants to push the pace, sitting 41st in adjusted tempo. The Tigers flash different pressure looks that can cause problems for opposing teams, but UAB doesn't turn it over.
Still, Memphis will look to push off misses, and that should help push the total over.
The three matchups between UAB and Memphis since the Blazers joined the AAC had final totals of 177 (this year), 185 and 193. I know the total feels high, but UAB can't defend and both teams play with incredible pace.
I expect the trend of overs in this matchup to continue.
