The Memphis Tigers take on the Wichita State Shockers in Wichita, Kansas. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Memphis is favored by 7.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -290. The total is set at 150.5 points.
Here are my Memphis vs. Wichita State predictions and college basketball picks for February 16, 2025.
Memphis vs Wichita State Prediction
My Pick: Under 147 or Better
My Memphis vs Wichita State best bet is on the under, with the best odds currently available at Caesars. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Memphis vs Wichita State Odds
| Memphis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -102 | 150.5 -110o / -110u | -290 |
| Wichita State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -118 | 150.5 -110o / -110u | +235 |
- Memphis vs Wichita State spread: Memphis -7.5
- Memphis vs Wichita State over/under: 150.5 points
- Memphis vs Wichita State moneyline: Memphis -290, Wichita State +235
- Memphis vs Wichita State best bet: Under 147 or Better
Spread
I'm staying away from the spread in this game.
Moneyline
Like the spread, I don't have a moneyline play here.
Over/Under
My best bet is on the under in this AAC showdown.
My Pick: Under 147 or Better
Memphis vs Wichita State College Basketball Betting Preview
The Memphis Tigers have been utterly dominant in AAC play, sitting at 11-1 in conference play, and the only loss came on a night when Temple erupted for 88 points.
Memphis is the only AAC team that will make the NCAA Tournament, barring a stolen bid.
As for Wichita State, it's been a rocky start to the Paul Mills era. The Shockers won just five games in AAC play last year and have just four right now — but they began the conference slate at 1-7. So, the past three games have relieved Shocker fans.
Although both teams want to push the pace and get rolling in transition, I'm not sure how likely that is here. Memphis turns the ball over a bunch with a 19% turnover rate. However, Wichita State isn't big on forcing turnovers or pressuring defensively (16% turnover rate).
Memphis also struggles offensively in the half-court and typically cleans up on drawing fouls. The Tigers rank 25th in KenPom's FTA/FGA metric, and each of their last five opponents had a foul issue.
However, Wichita State can equalize Memphis's foul-drawing prowess by its ability to not foul, ranking 37th defensively in FTA/FGA.
The Shockers held Memphis to 61 points in their first meeting by limiting their free-throw attempts to 15. Teams have been punching free passes to the line like it's nothing for Memphis, so 15 is a pretty reasonable amount.
Memphis does have copious offensive weapons. Likely All-American PJ Haggerty averages over 20 points per game, veteran guard Tyrese Hunter is connecting on over 40% of his shots from deep, and big-man Dain Dainja scored 18 points or more in four of his past five games. That's a pretty scary trio.
The Tigers are shooting 41% from downtown this year, which I didn't see being a strength in the preseason. They don't shoot many 3s, though. The plan of attack in the half-court is to drive and either draw a foul or kick to a shooter.
The Shockers' immense offensive struggles during conference play will help push the total under. They have the 11th-ranked offensive efficiency in league play, the worst effective field-goal percentage (38%), and the worst 3-point percentage (29%).
This team just can't score, and point guard Justin Hill missed the last few games, which makes matters worse.
Maybe it's not a bad thing, though. It could be the classic "Ewing Effect" with Hill out, as Wichita State managed to win three league games in his stead.
The Shockers are just not built to play a track meet, even with their faster pace. If the game reaches the 70s or 80s, it greatly favors Memphis.
Onto the Tigers' side, they could struggle to win the shot-volume battle, considering they really struggle on the defensive glass, ranking 326th in defensive rebounding rate.
That's the one area Wichita State can burn them in, as the Shockers have the highest offensive rebounding in the conference. That should lead to some lengthier possessions and fewer chances for the better offensive team — Memphis — to tack on points.
I just can't see this game being high-scoring.
For Wichita State alone, scoring 65-plus points against Memphis' terrific defense — which sits top-35 in KenPom's defensive efficiency — seems difficult.
And since the Shockers defense has ratcheted up in league play, it could lead to a shaky offensive performance for the road Tigers.
