The Merrimack Warriors take on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in Piscataway, NJ. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on Peacock.
Rutgers is favored by 17.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1800. The total is set at 133 points.
Here’s my Merrimack vs. Rutgers predictions and college basketball picks for November 20, 2024.
Merrimack vs Rutgers Prediction
My Pick: Rutgers -17.5
My Merrimack vs Rutgers best bet is on the Scarlet Knights spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Merrimack vs Rutgers Odds
| Merrimack Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17.5 -112 | 133 -108 / -112 | +1000 |
| Rutgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17.5 -108 | 133 -108 / -112 | -1800 |
- Merrimack vs Rutgers spread: Rutgers -17.5
- Merrimack vs Rutgers over/under: 133 points
- Merrimack vs Rutgers moneyline: Rutgers -1800, Merrimack +1000
- Merrimack vs Rutgers best bet: Rutgers -17.5
Spread
I like Rutgers on the spread.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I lean toward the over.
My Pick: Rutgers -17.5 (Play to -20)
Merrimack vs Rutgers College Basketball Betting Preview
Merrimack Basketball
Merrimack head coach Joe Gallo has a philosophy, and he'll stick to it regardless of who is on his roster or who he is facing.
Merrimack is known for its hyper-aggressive "No 3s" style zone defense, which leads to many steals and deflections.
The Warriors ranked top-five in turnover rate the past two seasons and currently sits 17th with a 24% turnover percentage. They have played three games and held each opponent to fewer than 70 points. That includes VCU and Princeton, who are the favorites to win the A-10 and Ivy League, respectively.
Conversely, Merrimack has not scored more than 65 points in any of its three games. The offense only gets production from three players — star guard Adam "Budd" Clark (20.7 PPG), forward Sean Trumper (12.7 PPG) and 6-foot-4 sharpshooter Matt Becht (7 PPG).
Nobody else on Merrimack's roster averages more than four points.
Merrimack consistently struggles to score, and it's a real problem this year, as it ranks 326th in offensive efficiency, per KenPom.
If you want an idea of how bad Merrimack is performing offensively, here is a list of its poor rankings:
- 336th in effective field goal percentage
- 310th in turnover rate
- 336th in 3-point percentage
- 297th in 2-point percentage
- 264th in offensive rebounding percentage
So, how will Merrimack score against a stout Rutgers defense? Well, it probably won't score much, but it needs to force turnovers to get consistent points.
Rutgers Basketball
You won't find a larger disparity in how computer and human rankings view a team than the Rutgers Scarlet Knights, who entered this week's AP Poll at No. 24 but sit at 63rd in KenPom.
So, what gives? Is Rutgers good? Is Rutgers a potential fraud?
I lean towards the former, as the Scarlet Knights beat all three of their opponents by double digits.
The most encouraging part is on the offensive end; Rutgers scored 75+ points in each game, something it did just once over its first nine games last year.
Sure, I have long term concerns about the Scarlet Knights' interior play holding firm during the grueling Big Ten schedule, but that's a non-issue in this game.
My guess is analytical sites will be cautious on being favorable to Steve Pikell's offense, considering it ranked 298th in offensive efficiency last year. Rutgers sits at 72nd right now, which is way better than last year, but this feels like a top-50 offense instead of a borderline top-75 one.
The difference is Rutgers has two projected top-five NBA draft picks in Ace Bailey and dazzling guard Dylan Harper.
A dynamic 6-foot-6 guard, Harper scored 20+ points in each of his first three games. Meanwhile, the 6-foot-10 versatile Bailey missed the first two games but scored 17 in his debut last weekend.
We know those two guys can score, but the contributing pieces — like shooters PJ Hayes IV and Zach Martini — filled a major void for the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers shot 28% from 3 last year and currently, it boasts a 35% 3-point percentage, with the two veteran transfers leading the charge.
While Rutgers isn't the elite defense it's been in past years, I think trading an elite defense for an average defense — while trading a hilariously bad offense for an offense with elite potential — is a trade off the fans will take.
Merrimack vs Rutgers Betting Analysis
I'll admit it, betting against Merrimack pains me because I want to believe it has the goods to compete with Rutgers.
But I don't see it.
The biggest advantage in Rutgers' handicap is its elite turnover rate, as it's giving the ball away just 12% of the time.
That, paired with Rutgers' massive size advantage over a fairly diminutive Warriors squad, should make beating the pressure zone an easier task than most teams have.
Plus, maybe it's nothing, but former Merrimack star Jordan Derkack is a key cog for Rutgers. You don't think Derkack knows the special sauce to beat Gallo's zone? He faced the defense in practice for years.
Give me the Knights.
