The Merrimack Warriors take on the Sacred Heart Pioneers in Fairfield, CT. Tip-off is set for 11 a.m. ET on ESPN+.
Merrimack is favored by 2 points on the spread with a moneyline of -135. The total is set at 142.5 points.
Here are my Merrimack vs. Sacred Heart predictions and college basketball picks for January 10, 2025.
Merrimack vs Sacred Heart Prediction
My Pick: Under 140.5 or Better
My Merrimack vs Sacred Heart best bet is on the under, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Merrimack vs Sacred Heart Odds
| Merrimack Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 142.5 -110 / -110 | -135 |
| Sacred Heart Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 142.5 -110 / -110 | +114 |
- Merrimack vs Sacred Heart spread: Merrimack -2
- Merrimack vs Sacred Heart over/under: 142.5 points
- Merrimack vs Sacred Heart moneyline: Merrimack -135, Sacred Heart +114
- Merrimack vs Sacred Heart best bet: Under 140.5 or Better
Spread
I'm passing on the spread, although I lean toward Merrimack, which looks like the class of the MAAC.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I love the under in what I expect to be a lower-scoring, grinding, sloppy Friday morning game.
My Pick: Under 140.5 or Better
Merrimack vs Sacred Heart College Basketball Betting Preview
Merrimack and Sacred Heart both realigned from the NEC into the MAAC this past year, so these are two familiar foes. Merrimack jumped from Division II in 2019 and has won eight of the 10 head-to-head matchups since.
The Warriors dominated the NEC, winning three regular-season titles in their five-year stint. In another jump to a “higher-level” conference, Joe Gallo’s squad has again proven it belongs, as it sits 3-0 in MAAC play and legitimately looks like the league’s top squad.
To be fair, Gallo’s unique, complex, aggressive zone defense is a tough cookie to crack, so it could take some time for MAAC opponents to “figure it out” and adjust.
After winning the league in their first year, the Warriors had a two-year swoon in NEC play as opponents adjusted, so we’ll see.
Of course, that doesn’t apply to this matchup, as the Pioneers have plenty of experience against the Gallo zone. They really figured it out at the end of last season, dropping 89 points in a four-point home win on March 2.
But the Pioneers no longer have the zone-busting Alex Sobel. Sobel dropped 22 in that matchup, including 18 from the paint. Sacred Heart has really missed his two-way interior presence.
This year’s squad plays more up-tempo, perimeter-oriented ball. The Pios space the floor and leverage dribble-handoff sets to get their bevy of wings out in space or heading downhill.
Tanner Thomas, Amiri Stewart and Anquan Hill combine for nearly 27 points per game, and Aidan Carpenter is another solid 6-foot-5 downhill driver when he’s not hurt (as I believe he is right now).
For what it’s worth, the style is working. Sacred Heart is 2-1 in MAAC play with the highest-rated offense in the league (118 offensive efficiency mark).
Still, Sacred Heart hasn’t had an excellent zone offense this year, scoring 54 points in 65 possessions (.83 PPP, 15th percentile).
On paper, the Pioneers can play attack-and-kick, catch-and-shoot basketball with back-door cutters, which is probably the best way to beat Merrimack’s zone. But getting into dribble-handoff sets against the Warriors is nearly impossible, so I’m uncertain how comfortable the Pioneers will be.
I also don’t think Hill can replicate what Sobel did as a high-post scorer. And Merrimack is a rock-solid ball-handling team that’s elite in transition denial, so I suspect the Warriors can keep the Pios’ wings from pushing the pace and pressuring the rim in transition.
Part of Merrimack’s ball-handling prowess has been the emergence of Adam “Budd” Clark, a positively marvelous ball-screen creator and isolation scorer. He’s been one of my favorite mid-major guards to watch this year and has considerably increased the Warriors’ offensive ceiling.
That said, Clark and the Warriors operate mainly in the mid-range, which might be tough against Sacred Heart’s uber-compact defense. The Pioneers pack it in, and they’re very effective at denying mid-range ball-screen (.64 PPP allowed, 88th percentile) and isolation (.43 PPP allowed, 99th percentile) creation.
You beat Sacred Heart in transition and by shooting over the top. That said, Merrimack is a slower-paced team that doesn’t love shooting the 3, so I suspect the Warriors will attempt to run their ball-screen offense into crowded middle-of-the-floor lanes and have a tough time generating efficient offense.
So, I believe we’ll see a lower-scoring grinder, especially considering the slower projected pace. Plus, both teams could be a little sloppy and sluggish for an 11 a.m. local time tip.
It’s also worth mentioning that both squads could be in for some slight negative shooting regression. Both teams are shooting nearly 40% from 3 through three conference games. I suspect neither mark is sustainable, and both offenses are likely a tad overvalued in the markets.
The total opened at 141.5. Considering I make the total under 140, I’ll happily place a wager on the under for Friday’s MAAC matinee.
